Details on the political ramifications of Murtha's death (district info, special election, etc)

The death of longtime Pennsylvania Rep. John Murtha (D) this afternoon will set off a special election in his very competitive western Pennsylvania 12th district.

According to state law, the governor has ten days once the vacancy is officially declared to decide on the date for the special election, which can come no sooner than 60 days following that proclamation.

That likely means the special election will be held on May 18, which is the date already set for federal primaries around the state. (Special elections costs the state huge sums of money and it's likely that Gov. Ed Rendell will choose to go with an already established election day to save some cash.)

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/inner-circle/john-murtha-dies-special-elect.html




Prior to Murtha's death CQ Politics rated this district as "Likely Democratic." This is a highly gerrymandered district that Clinton, Gore, and Kerry won but Obama did not.

State CD Member Party Obama McCain Kerry Bush '04 Gore Bush '00
PA.....12 Murtha.. (D).... 49....... 50..... 51.... 49....... 55..... 44

Demographic information for Penn District 12 per the 2000 Census:

3.3% African American (national 12.3%)
0.6% Hispanic or Latino (national 12.5)
19.1% 65 years and over (national (12.4)
13.7% Bachelor's degree or higher (national 24.4%)
9.9% Families below poverty level (national 9.2%)

You should see Philadelphia - they redistricted that so Philadelphia was all broken down into 3-4 districts that reach out into the rural parts of the Philly suburb. Of course we got the last laugh when democrats ended up picking up additional house seats even with the horrible redistricting. But a turnaway from the dems could see us lose alot in the state.

Someone posted it here a couple of years ago -- a lot of detailed analysis, maybe at Daily Kos? The bottom line was that Republican gerrymandering, not just in Pennsylvania but in many states following the 2000 census, had attempted to maximize the number of Republican seats by spreading Republican voters out into many districts with perhaps a 52-48 GOP advantage, while concentrating the Democrats into a smaller number of districts with a 65-35 Democratic advantage.

It looked like a good idea at the time, but the long-term result was a lot of Democratic safe seats and a lot of GOP-leaning tossups that wouldn't take much of a shift in either demographics or party sympathies to flip Democratic.

I haven't seen any follow-up since, but I'd be really interested to know how many of those 52-48 GOP districts actually went Democratic in 2006 or 2008. From what you say, it sounds like it certainly had an effect in Pennsylvania.

since we have an overwhelming majority in the House and only need a simple majority to pass stuff there.

The Kennedy Senate seat was different because of the filibuster rule. This is not as serious as that.

Scott Brown's election did way more than alter the ability to break a fillibuster, it scared the living shit out of Democratic politicians in both houses of Congress. I don't think we're going to keep the seat, but if we did, it might show the frightened that they don't have to herd towards the center in order to save their asses.

We need to make winning this a priorty. The Rethugs knew what a chilling effect Massachusetts would have on the political landscape, that's why they poured a lot of time and money into it through the tea baggers. We need to really put the full court press on here.

And frankly, we need to keep the President hundreds of miles away from this district. If they didn't go for him in 2008, he's got to be less popular there today.

My favorite belongs to State Senator Dave Aaronberg (D) who is running for Attorney General. His district runs coast to coast in Florida and has two separate communities on opposite coasts connected by a thin sliver of highway. :rofl:

:spray:

and set over the ocean from his district. Others being: Governor of Florida, Governor of Hawaii, and the President of the United States.

The areas covered are not even close to contiguous..and in fact it has parts in two different counties...Kings and New York

I would think that the background is a very interesting story.....


So far..this is the best I can find.
http://wapedia.mobi/en/New_York%27s_8th_congressional_district

The cities connected make since, but it looks so odd.

however politicians never think they will die so they don't think to the future.

Murtha's district is very conservative. The election will be a toss up between a conservative Democrat and an ultra-right wing Republican.

Murtha was an anti-choice war hawk who brought home the bacon.

For those who thought he was anti-Iraq war, you only had to listen to him to know that he just felt the strategy was all wrong but he was still a hawk.

My condolences to his family though, it is sad that he died unexpectedly as a result of a common surgical procedure.

but I agree with the rest of what you said, it is trending the other direction.

didn't carry the district but Kerry and Gore did. The district has gone Democratic by wide majorities in the last 4 Senate elections. Dems represent this area in the state house. A Democrat like Casey should win it handily and there are several possible candidates in the state legislature.

Calling him a "hawk" is false, too. Read some of his speeches on the war especially those he gave to veteran's groups. It wasn't just the strategy he opposed and he made that abundantly clear.

and at one point he made it clear that he felt the troops be withdrawn and the strategy revised for re-deployment.

Unless their is a Tea Partier on the ballot.

:(

After the other special election fiasco, no one wants to hear anymore obnoxious crowing from the GOP.