Sugar Shortage May Turn Acute in Third Quarter on Demand From U.S., Mexico

By Thomas Kutty Abraham

Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) -- A global sugar shortage, which drove prices to the highest level in three decades, may peak in the third quarter this year on demand from the U.S., Mexico, India and Pakistan, according to U.S.-based Tropix Capital Management.

“As we enter the second quarter, we enter the inter-crop period for South Brazil when export supply is minimal,” Sean Diffley, founder of the hedge fund and former head of sugar trading at ED&F Man Holdings Ltd., said by email. “Countries like Russia will return to the market in force. The acutest part of the deficit may not be apparent until the third quarter.”

India, China, Indonesia, Pakistan, Egypt and Russia are among countries planning to buy sugar to cool domestic prices, worsening a deficit that may reach 11.92 million tons in the year ending April 30, up from 8.32 million tons predicted in October, Kingsman SA said yesterday. The shortfall may be 5 million to 6 million tons this season, according to Tropix.

“The world stocks-to-use ratio should reach 20 year lows in the second half of this year,” said Diffley, who worked for 16 years at ED&F Man, one of the biggest sugar trader.

India, the biggest user, may need to import an extra 2.5 million to 3 million tons this season to meet a 7 million ton deficit, according to Kingsman. Pakistan, Asia’s third-biggest user, plans to purchase 1.25 million tons by June. The country “apparently bought 100,000 tons” from Cargill Inc. in the past few days, Michael McDougall, a Newedge USA senior vice president said yesterday in a report from an industry event in Dubai.

China Drought

China, the biggest consumer after India, may have a deficit of 3.3 million tons this year after drought and cold weather cut yields, the Guangxi Bulk Sugar Exchange Center said last month. Thailand, the second-biggest exporter, may produce 7.2 million tons in the year started in November, less than the forecast.

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It never ends with the fraud, I mean free markets.

Damn..seems we DO have a learning curve.

more poison for the masses.

try Agave nectar, that is what i use. you only need a little bit.

But Agave has an even higher concentration of fructose than HFCS.

oh well, Im doomed.

If you use it as a direct sugar replacement for all your cooking...you might want to investigate other methods.

too much of that stuff and one is in the Bathroom all night.

I read labels, so NO HFCS EVER

For adding HFCS to even more foods.

the fix is in.

With the help of the government.

maple tree tappers this year. Buy local.