China buys some time in Pyongyang

By Donald Kirk

SEOUL - North Korea seems to be playing the China card for all it's worth - in multi-billions in aid and investment - to overcome United Nations sanctions and pressure for Pyongyang to get rid of its nuclear program.

A report in South Korea about China investing US$10 billion in North Korea's dilapidated economy has analysts worrying that such a deal could negate the impact of promises of that much money in energy aid as a reward for North Korea giving up its nukes.

American corporate lawyer Tom Pinansky, at a luncheon of the American Chamber of Commerce in Seoul, raised the issue in a barbed question to South Korea's ambassador to the US Han Duk-soo. What would happen to six-party talks in which the lure of massive aid is the bargaining tool, if China is going to give the North all the aid it wants anyway?

Han, a former prime minister with a long background in economic and foreign affairs, more or less equivocated. There was nothing to substantiate the report, he said, indicating that China, as host of the six-party talks on North Korea's, was cooperating on sanctions.

The sincerity of China's avowed desire for North Korea to return to six-party talks, though, is increasingly open to question. While North Korea turns to China for relief from economic collapse, China in turn seems to be playing the North Korean card against the US, South Korea and Japan at a time when their always shaky relations are more strained than ever.


The real news evidently was that China, eager to rescue the North from economic collapse, may be sparing its North Korean comrades the need to have to make serious concessions about their nukes. As The Korea Times editorialized, "It is well known China would rather have a nuclear-armed North Korea than a completely collapsed neighbor."
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China, though, is not just trying to "save North Korea". Beijing also sees North Korea as a strategic partner or at least a foil to play against the US while the US upsets China with moves that China sees as a threat, symbolically and in real terms.

How better to send a message to Washington than to have Chinese officials and analysts spreading the word that China is tightening ties with its old ally, whom Chinese troops rescued in the Korean War? And why would China want to do that?

Two immediate reasons come to mind. One is US President Barack Obama's refusal to yield to Chinese demands not to see the Dalai Lama. Obama saw the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader on Thursday in an affront that put Washington in line, in the Chinese view, with interests that want to undermine Chinese rule. Obama's meeting with the Dalai Lama was studiedly non-controversial, in no way committing the US to doing anything about Chinese rule over Tibet, but it showed US concern about Chinese abuses.

More annoying to the Chinese than the Dalai Lama's call on Obama was the US commitment to sell $6.4 billion in arms to Taiwan.

China's relations with the island province, which it always claims as its own, have improved greatly in recent years. Trade now goes on directly between Taiwan and the Chinese mainland, no need for sending everything via Hong Kong, and tourists come and go. Still, the specter of the US arming Taiwan with sophisticated weaponry for a non-existent war that does not appear to be about to break out is highly discomfiting to Chinese leaders.

And there are other disturbing issues. China balks at US demands to revalue its money so Chinese exports will cost more on foreign markets, making American goods more competitive and maybe reducing the enormous imbalance of trade. In a grand total of approximately $400 billion in annual trade between the two countries, for every dollar the US makes selling products to China, the Chinese make five dollars exporting to the US. China also holds $755 billion in US Treasury bills - a staggering figure that has a lot to do with keeping the US economy afloat in hard times.

Considering all the money they're making off the US, the Chinese don't want to mess up a good thing by provoking a crisis - or a wave of anti-Chinese sentiment. Still, there may be no better device for getting Washington's attention than to moot the idea of aiding and abetting North Korea without saying so in so many words.
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At least that is how we look at it. The Chinese are investing in countries all over the world and getting richer by the day. We are investing in wars that never produce a return.

In fact all you really have to do is look at a map to understand the logic. If North Korea collapses there will be tons of refugees either going north to China or south to South Korea. No wonder both of these countries are trying to prevent North Korea from collapsing.