Let's hash through this hypothetical scenario for a moment

Let's say you have a DLC/Blue Dog Democrat elected to the House from a Republican leaning district. Let's say his district voted 53% McCain-46% Obama in 2008. Let's further say that the Congressman was first elected in 2006 with 51% of the vote and then won with 57% of the vote in 2008.

In his district there is considerable teabag sentiment (well, not actually, but the local media makes it seem like there is) and there is also considerable pressure being applied upon the Congressman to vote against HCR by corporate interest groups, who flood the airwaves with slick, fearmongering ads. The local GOP is recruiting a top-tier candidate for 2010, who will get money from the NRCC.

He wants to win a third term, and would actually like to pitch his tent in Washington for awhile and have a long career in Congress, maybe become a committee chairman someday. Is this Congressman better off electorally by voting for HCR or voting against it? I can tell you what the correct answer is, but I will wait a little bit.

not corporate interests. THEN they are (almost) guaranteed a long and tumultuous career. :-)

That's what the "good guys" are promised.

based on short term view of what they think is right.

Should HC be enacted, it will take a few years before Democrats even agree its a good thing. It will take about a year longer for Republians to forget everything that happened.

With the sentiment you suggested, he would need to be a Republican to wind. He will have to stand up to the Obamacare socialists.

So I say that he is unlikely to win in this climate, and he should admit it. Vote for Health Care and tell his constituents that he was looking out for them. A man has to do what he thinks is right, what works for the benefit of the family, and voted his conscious.

There is a strong drive to throw the bums out on the right, and even a current to throw the bums out here on the right. I'm surprised that such a candidate as you described isn't being primaried by Kucinich's Siamese twin brother who was separated at birth from his sibling and has lived in secret all these years.

they are only at the "whims" of a short term mentality if they lack vision and are afraid to step out. I would suggest that ultimately, especially with Democrats, if they want to stay around, they are better to do what is right and show conviction and make a case for it.

The only chance a guy like that has is that he was elected once. In order for people to be led they must be willing. Some people will vote for him simply because he is the incumbant. Like California's now outed gay State Senator who has run his career voting against anything that would help the Gay community and claiming to be a Family Values sort of guy, his days are numbered.

Republican, voters will choose the real thing every time. Harry Truman

On edit: I agree with Go2Peace. Sell HCR. Most people will listen to reason. The rest won't vote for you anyway.