Anyone on the ground seeing evidence to back up all the happy economic talk coming from Wall St ?

Sure the Stock Market has rebounded.

But here in NC the unemployment rate is still 9.7% and foreclosures are still going strong. Jobs are hard to find. And we have lots of professionals unemployed. The housing market is still glutted and home prices are still depressed. Can't remember the last time there was an announcement that there was going to be new hiring, but we still get notices of layoffs.

I am hoping things will look up, but we are a LONG WAY from experiencing the Economic Rebound that the Wall Street talking heads are praising.

It's just not happening here .... what about where you live?

corners around here. It's going to take some time to recover (years) from what Bush left us.

nt

I was at Starbucks the other day and it was more crowded than I have ever seen it.

... they are desparate to lure the "retail investor" back into the stock market for one final shearing.

And of course it is working. Morons who see somethat that has dropped 20% rebound 0.001% think it is a "recovery".

Never mind that unemployment is up, foreclosures are up, oh don't worry those are "lagging indicators".

I'm beyond even feeling sorry for people that can't see what is going on.

they feed off the "dumb money" and the dumb money is us

The only point you are overlooking is that many people have their retirement monies in the hands of money managers whom they have no control over. And whom they may not even be aware of. And those money managers always love the Big Boys on Wall street.

So when a secretary, firefighter, teacher, project manager et al. who are working for your local county or state think that the 11% of their paycheck that goes into retirement is being handled wisely, they may have no real idea of where that money is, till everything collapses once again.

Since I get up at 4 am and try to get out the door by 5 (Daily Show and part of Colbert in between) I have noticed the number of cars out and about from 5 AM on to 6 AM. In the midst of the really dark economic times there was a remarkable amount of cars out between 5 and 6. Compared to when I started training for my first marathon in February of 2007 it was noticeably more. I see less cars these days. That could be people working less hours or it could be people not having to get up at ridiculous hours (like me) OR it could have been, in the dark economic times, people coming home early in the morning after getting hammered.

:shrug:

I now can take a 2-4 mile run and not have a single car pass me. This was not the case from October 2008 until about last fall (this winter was so nasty that I rarely got out).

... and now that the housing market has bottomed out AND so many people are unemployed at just the time we are carrying a record amount of personal debt, it is more of an implosion for those who used to call themselves part of the Middle Class.

my company's order bookings are almost back to pre-recession levels... production is behind and can't keep up..

they make accessories for wire rope and chain.. things like hooks, shackles, swivels, sockets etc.. used in construction, mining, oil exploration, marine rigging, etc... company's been around since the late 1800s and is considered the industry leader..

reflects how well companies are doing profit wise and they are increasing profits right now by cutting back on their workforce.

That's my gauge on the "economy".

I have been looking at the want ads for the past year - the only ads for professionals in my field are for fresh outs or folks with 2 or 3 years experience. And even THOSE ads are few and far between.

I believe we are at a false plateau and the second dip is coming soon. The foreclosure market will ramp up this year and the "recovery" will disipate like early morning fog. Happy talk is all good and well, but in the end a jobless "recovery" is NO recovery at all.

and we probably are still looking at tough times ahead.

I'm a graphic designer, and business has picked up considerably over the last 4 months or so.

but I've also just become more accustomed to being poorer.

perhaps in the fall, they say. :eyes:

I guess in the meantime, we can always scratch in the dirt like chickens.:party:

As one of my retail clients said, "we thought March was a great month, then April came along and we got more returns than we've ever seen." She said it was around 33%.

I don't see signs of a sustained recovery.

the ruling elite has all sorts of names and technicalities to empower those who want to pretend it's nota depression, but it is.

There is no place for the jobs we've ost to come back to. Not enough people can possibly eat at Burger King to re-employ everyone who has been remaindered at the only jobs that are left.

I have no idea how people are making it.

Personally our publishing business is on the rise, but most people in their fifties did not start a publishing business while working at government jobs.

I am grateful for every bag of groceries, and every monetary ability we now have to pay our electric bills and rent. I do see a small uptick in the number of contractors driving around with their trucks loaded up with building supplies. But that little bit of prosperity has come about AFTER some people had their homes foreclosed on them, and the new owners want remodeling done.

This past month, this month and next is supposed to see a record number of foreclosures.

Take the 700,000 temporary cencus jobs out of recent numbers, and unemployment is nearly as bad as it was when Obama took office.

but JOBS are a lagging indicator....

I know I have said this many a times.

They are leading on the way down and lagging on the way out.

Yep it is still 9.7, if nothing was done it woudl be close to 15 by now (and yes I am aware of the real rate ok, which would be much worst if the official rate was at double digits)

Oh and locally we have seen jobs, as in LOCAL jobs, created.

Every political jurisdiction in the state is cutting both flesh and bone. Unemployment has not improved at all. A second round of foreclosures. Short sales abound.

1) The restaurants are full enough that we need to make reservations.
2) A surveyor said he is "booked up" again, albeit with forclosures
3) We have trouble getting contractors to show up to bid on work.

As someone else said, employment will be a severely lagging indicator. Adding to that is the housing situation that will take YEARS to sort out. And the manufacturing jobs just keep leaving. It will be a VERY soft recovery.

We took three months to add a second shift of machinists because we couldn't find any ($20/hr plus).

I need tiling work done on my house and the contractor who quoted hasn't got a single day empty for over 6 weeks.

6.30pm on a Wednesday all seats at a largish and non-divey bar/restaurant I frequent occupied.

Most of our suppluers are pushing out lead times. We are too. Can't keep up. Machine capacity mostly, not workforce cuts.

Incidentally we sell engineered parts to mostly large OEM manufacturers - 90% (from this location) US based.

Is it like that everywhere? Obviously no. But the inverse is true also - it IS like that somewhere. Here. And this is in a traditionally depressed upstate NY location. Can you find work here as a graphic designer or glassblower? Probably not. If you have any manufacturing skillset on either office or floor side of things, probably. Had to replace three of my folks in last two months because they got pocahed by another large employer, so it's not just us.


So I am guessing positive anecdotes are not data, but negative ones are?

The parking lot was full and I had to wait for a seat. The waitresses and owner were running around like crazy.

I asked the owner who I think voted for McCain if business was picking up for him? He said yes it was.

Don

of course the housing market was never really weak in louisiana to begin with, thanks to the destruction of housing stock caused by katrina, rita, etc. but there were a lot of empty houses standing around last year

i don't know what the problem is with the one house remaining that it's still unwanted, it has gone thru several real estate agents, maybe they just want too much $

...

:thumbsup:

... is "recession fatigue". After a couple of years of tight times, folks get tired of scrimping and being careful, they long for the old days when they could indulge their fetish for new electronics and nice restaurant meals.

None of the "fundamentals" (I hate using that word, Bush turned it into a permanent lie) of the economy are sound. Housing, is still weak. The banks cannot become solvent until/unless housing regains its value and there is NO WAY THAT IT CAN, incomes won't support that because wages are depressed because jobs have moved overseas. Jobs are weak and what will change that? Nothing short of a revolution in Washington to make Chinese imports expensive. They won't do it.

I honestly think that we will never see another 90s' style go go economy in our lifetimes (well maybe if you are under 30) :)).

There is a small but perceptible "upturn" out there but I believe there is no way it can last more than a few months.

Here's a guy I always agree with....

http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html

Interesting reading; I will be on the lookout for this guy in the future.

I agree with your "recession fatigue" synopsis. Mix that with the timing: a whole lot of folks just got some kind of a tax refund, and BINGO!

In South Florida, there has been a slight uptick in our wholesale distribution business (tied to the construction and maintenance trade) lately, but it may be due to the arrival of warmer weather after a very cool winter - we'll see if it's sustainable into next winter.
I was out this evening in downtown Miami/Brickell area - things were hopping for a decidely young crowd. New condo towers still sport plenty of dark windows.
We're so far down from '06, that - as the old blues song goes - everything looks like up to us now.
This may be the new reality.
Home starts were up a slight bit in Feb., but still way, way off what used to be normal (pre-boom days).

few new businesses being built, a school being built, lots of road construction.

Lots of houses for sale with quite a few sold signs - I'm sure trying to get in on the housing credit before it ends.

A lot of activity happening.

I'm keeping an eye on some empty commercial buildings for sale or lease. Hoping to see more of those getting tenants.

I haven't been to the mall for a couple of weeks but there is a primo location (3 separate but can be connected stores) that has been vacant or occupied by small, seasonal businesses (clearly not permanent tenants) since The Gap, Gap Kids and Gap Body shut down. When those get leased by a long term tenant I'll consider the Recession pretty much toast. That spread of empty stores makes it clear that things aren't back to normal yet but I certainly think things are moving in that direction.

Edit to add - most importantly, my DH's business is very busy - has been for weeks now without the standard slower periods when they got certain things done. Since it is not slowing down enough for certain parts of the business to be done, they are getting behind on that part. He said last week that he thinks they may be at a tipping point when he needs to hire some more people. Obviously, this is more important then the anecdotal stuff I mentioned above. He doesn't know WHY all the businesses he works with are ordering and requesting so much more then they had been but they are doing so now and it seems to be steady.

Our tax return was bigger than it was in years. I've sold more of my own product (I'm a professional musician) and my wife who is a counselor is getting more potential patients. Tourism has risen for the first time in quite awhile and it's a sustained rise, not a blip. Hiring has gone up in town, and there is more of a "buying" feeling out there.

My wife also is a day trader and you mentioned the markets going up so it won't surprise you to know that she has been doing better.

The only thing that still stinks are gas prices. They keep spiraling upward, unabaited.

Generally, things seem quite a bit better. I hope it continues.

Tax revenues on retail sales have gone up significantly since the new year in this area.

One more person looking for work......there's only 11 of us now.

And they just put out their first findings and tentative recommendations. Evidently they can save UC $75 million dollars a year by consolidating departments, centralizing administrative duties and laying off a lot of people. All this is to happen in the future.

Even without this agency's findings or recommendations departments are being asked to find a way of cutting more costs in their budgets this year. Right in the middle of everyone taking furlough days from the last cuts.

This depression is not over by a long shot.

Companies are hiring. People are moving from one firm to another. Jobs are there.
People are buying houses. Construction permits are up. Dumpsters all over my town at least, with work being done.

The Sunday Globe help wanted section might have 3 pages of jobs, most of which are for teachers, nurses, or high tech people. I haven't found job prospects anywhere.

Look online. I'm also in Mass, and I agree that things are starting to look up here. What field are you looking for a job in?

I'm looking for admin work and it seems like when there are jobs, they expect you to know how to do a brazillion different things and how to use way too many software programs. (Probably from now having one person do the work that used to be done by two or three.) And if you don't know each and every thing on both their required and preferred lists, there's no sense bothering to apply because someone else will know them. In an employers market like this, they can and do wait for the perfect candidate, which is pretty much never me. These days, even when I am an excellent match for a position I'm lucky if I get a call for an interview. I had an interview for a church admin job, for which I have a lot of experience, and the priest told me that they had something like 120 resumes! Church jobs never get anywhere near that number of resumes! (I've been involved on both sides of the equation.) There may be more jobs, but there are still too many people competing for too few jobs.

Our sales are coming back up to pre-2008 standards.

Oh, I work in the electronics business....parts for everything from a pacemaker to a jet plane.

Albuquerque NM, not seeing improvement, no job opportunities. I am long term jobless at this point.

Unemployment in Metro Orlando is 11.6%. Back in the Clinton days it was 1.9%

I don't blame President Obama but this economy is irreparably broken and all the Pollyannas in the world can't fix it.

I'm trying to take some time off, but, 'make hay while the sun shines'.


After going over my first quarter gross receipts, expense, etc., and projecting forward, I'll have my best year since '06...maybe a little better net.

and more people start leaving the unemployment rolls, I'll be believing. Until then, not so much......

Recoveries never happen overnight and it will likely be a hard long slog back. Hopefully, most of us will survive it and we will end up with some more protections to soften any future blows like what we experienced in 2008. I'm taking the "feel good" propaganda emanating out of Wall Street with a grain of salt right now. Wall Street has a considerably different view of how things are going here on Main Street.

ads in local rag.

Any so called "recovery" only helps bloodsucking vampires with "investments".


I hate Wall Street and the stock market! They are at the heart of what is wrong with this country! :puke:

I wonder about their lives, must be good for them.


:eyes:,...:crazy:,....:think:

Also, keep in mind that corporate profits don't have a lot do with employement.
Many employers are in hyper-efficiency mode right now where remaining employees are forced to pick up the duties performed by their laid-off bretheren.

but we have a foreclosure next door, one down the street and three in a row on the next block. And these are not "pricey" homes. Pay cuts everywhere.

A friend who is a commissioned decorative artist has finally seen a pickup in home decor sales.

Wall Street Banks are proclaiming they are back to making profits and bonuses are required to keep 'the talent' from leaving and going to another company.

While they still have not paid back taxpayers for the billions given to them to 'lend to mainstreet' and they have just added them to their balance sheets to improve their bottom lines.

It all seems to be another attempt to snooker investors to keep the $$ rolling in. Especially when you consider that the toxic assets are still out there, and the great commercial debt refinancing is just beginning --which could cause huge defaults and losses. Can you say 'bailout to save the financial system from imploding'??

I just don't see it here. IF things are better where you are, to what do you attribute the uptick and will it last?

The Hoss is still clinging to his business -- we've had wages and benefits cuts, downsized, and are playing three card monte with the creditors to keep them off our backs. We've had to hold our paychecks the past several pay periods until funds came in. We've lost 10+ % of our business and haven't had a new, major client in over a year. It will take us a minimun of three above-average years to regain the client numbers we lost.

My company is a B2B (business to business) service provider, mainly in the transportation industry. Transactions are up. Which means that more businesses are doing more business all across the country. And we are seeing new businesses opening up. People are buying again.

I was in the feed store the other day and overheard a farmer who looked to be about 75, but could be as old as 85. He said he's never in his lifetime seen the economy like this. He couldn't imagine how it could get any worse than it is now.

Oh, and I also learned 2 weeks ago that for the first time since my university started it's Med lab Tech program, the currently graduating class is facing job cuts and few openings instead of 100% employment assured. The program director knew of only a couple openings in the entire state. She said hospitals are freezing and/or cutting back due to fears about HIR.

Also, that there is not a single job opening for a nurse in Massachusetts. A nursing grad from a few years ago did email the nursing program director here about one opening (yes, one opening) in NH. One nearby hospital laid off all it's lab techs last year and replaced them with contractors. Now they've just laid off another dozen or so employees.

No, I'm not seeing it and I don't expect we will see it for years to come.

don't see much hiring though.

A new Lowes and a new Target. I don't think they'd be opening new stores here if they didn't think they'd make money. This is in northeast Massachusetts.

Granted, they were for shitty retail and restaurant jobs, but for a long while there weren't any such signs at all.

None at all.

in sales in Q1. We sell software for digital printing, and most of our sales are add-ons to OEM sales of high-capacity laser printer/copiers, which run into the six-figure range. So it looks like business is beginning to spend on equipment. At some point, we'll have to hire some more engineers -- we're working our asses off trying to support the current level of business, and if things pick up much more, we'll either have to expand or turn business away.

I've also been getting recruiter calls over the last few months after many months of silence. I'm a software engineer with 20+ years experience, and currently have a very good job. I've been very lucky in that over my twenty-some years in the business, I've never been unemployed for more than six weeks. Many of my former colleagues are not as fortunate -- most of the software people I worked with when I moved to Atlanta 17 years ago are no longer in the industry, or have left the USA for greener pastures in Europe & Australia.

I know this is bad news for the "conservatives", but the US does seem to be recovering. I suppose it must be really bad when a major party has so many of its spokesmen rooting for economic ruin for the nation - and then things get better anyway.

long.

was a needed plus for us since it is per performance and part of his pay. company must be doing better. they hit some had times about a year and half ago