5 Republican Seats Democrats Could Win

Delaware - At Large: Rep. Mike Castle (R) is heavily favored to win Vice President Joe Biden's former Senate seat, but he left behind an open House seat that most expect Democrat John Carney to win. Carney is the former lieutenant governor who lost a close Democratic primary race for governor in 2008. The only Republican with significant money is real estate developer Glen Urquhart, who's dropped $565,000 of his own money into the race, while raising just $3,000. With three counties, the small state's voters elect people they know and like, and Carney fits the bill here. He's been elected statewide twice, and he previously served as state finance secretary under then-Gov. Tom Carper and a staffer in the office of then-Sen. Biden. Carney's raised nearly $1 million and has $675,000 in the bank.

Illinois - 10: This is Democrat Dan Seals' third straight shot at the North Shore district, falling 6-points shy in the last two elections against Rep. Mark Kirk. However, Kirk's running for the Senate this year and taking along his moderate voting record that allowed him to win this Democratic-leaning district for five terms. The fact that Kirk continued to win here -- even in 2008 when President Obama carried it with 61% -- probably says more about Kirk than the district. His opponent this year is businessman Bob Dold, who's raised nearly $1 million and has $380,000 on hand. But Seals is raising impressive sums as well -- he has $460,000 on hand and is receiving some assistance from the national party.

Pennsylvania - 15: Rep. Charlie Dent is facing his most difficult re-election this year, with Democrats scoring one of their top recruits in the nation: Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan, who received a fundraising visit from Biden just last week. Dent and Callahan are within $5,000 of each other in cash on hand, and with national Democrats continuing to raise money for November, Callahan can expect to receive all the help he needs. In Dent's favor is the fact that voting in the Lehigh Valley regularly matches the state and national mood -- it's voted for the winner in the last six gubernatorial races, and except for giving John Kerry and Al Gore very small wins, it's voted for the winning presidential candidate since 1980. However, Dent's never faced a candidate as strong as Callahan; and with Obama winning 56% here in 2008, Callahan could be able to swing the congressional vote back to the Democrats.

Louisiana - 2: "Under ordinary circumstances, Cao, as a Republican, would have had no chance in this district." That's how the Almanac of American Politics described his 2008 upset of Rep. Bill Jefferson, and that's how it will likely play out this year with convicted felon Bill Jefferson no longer on the ticket and serving 13 years in prison. This New Orleans-based district voted at least 75% for the last four Democratic presidential nominees. Cao's fundraising took a major hit in the first quarter of 2010, bringing in just $100,000, leaving him with $310,000 on hand. His likely opponent, State Rep. Cedric Richmond, raised $128,000 and has $278,000 in the bank.

Florida - 25: This Miami-area district is likely the biggest reach for Democrats of the five districts listed here. Its large Cuban population leans the district toward Republicans, though it has the smallest Cuban population of the three area Hispanic-majority districts. Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart is vacating the seat to run in his brother's neighboring 21st District, which is a slightly safer seat for Republicans. Diaz-Balart faced a difficult 2008 race against Joe Garcia, chairman of the Miami-Dade County Democratic Party. Garcia lost by only a 53%-47% margin; he took a job in the Obama administration, but recently resigned to run again for the open seat. His likely Republican opponent is state Rep. David Rivera, who has $700,000 in the bank and whom the national GOP has high hopes for. If they both make it through their primaries, this is expected to be a costly and highly contested district.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/realclearpolitics/20100423/cm_rcp/5_republican_seats_democrats_could_win

(BTW, I cancelled out a negative rec. Those are so much more obvious on new posts.):shrug:

because by 4 p.m. on Saturday nobody will be able to Rec or UnRec this thread, but a kick will move it to the top of its forum even next week.

There's too much Rec obsession at DU anyways.

I am a little disillusioned right now but I won't go down without a fight. I hope Obama doesn't get hamstrung with a GOP Congress like Clinton did. I don't think he will because the economy is coming around and should continue to do so until this November at least.

:kick:

They hate the way the populace wised up a tiny bit and turned on Republicans after the collosal failure of the Bush years. This is the first part, trying to make out like both parties are just as bad. Then it's all about how wonderful Republicans are after all, and after that it's Saint Junior ascending the throne - resplendent alongside Saint Ronnie of Regan, the true savior of all.