Hawking: Aliens are out there, likely to be Bad News

"Hawking: Aliens are out there, likely to be Bad News

Come on you Indians, let's not wave at the galleons!

By Lewis Page, www.theregister.co.uk
Posted in Space, 26th April 2010 09:29 GMT

Renowned physicist Stephen Hawking has repeated his long-held belief that intelligent aliens are likely to exist, and that a visit by them to present-day humanity would probably have unfortunate consequences for us.

Publicising a new documentary he has made for the Discovery Channel, the legendary boffin told the Times at the weekend:

“To my mathematical brain, the numbers alone make thinking about aliens perfectly rational... If aliens ever visit us, I think the outcome would be much as when Christopher Columbus first landed in America, which didn’t turn out very well for the Native Americans.”

The 68-year-old, who is paralysed by motor neurone disease, has been working on his documentary for the last three years, reportedly exercising firm editorial control. The Times reports that the show will feature speculative scenes of alien life in extraterrestrial habitats, including some - for instance the possible hot oceans of Europa, moon of Jupiter - in our own solar system.

Logically enough, Hawking reportedly considers that most alien life would be on the same general order as the life which has existed on Earth for almost all the time it has been a living planet - microbes or simple animal forms.

But with a hundred billion galaxies each with potentially a hundred billion stars, Hawking considers that intelligent life is entirely possible - even, perhaps, intelligent life with technology so advanced as to be able to travel across interstellar distances. He considers it an extremely unwise move for primitive present-day humanity to attract the attention of such voyagers - by such efforts as the controversial practice of beaming out "Active SETI" signals, for instance.

“We only have to look at ourselves to see how intelligent life might develop into something we wouldn’t want to meet," he argues. "I imagine they might exist in massive ships, having used up all the resources from their home planet. Such advanced aliens would perhaps become nomads, looking to conquer and colonise whatever planets they can reach.”

The idea of wandering alien raiders in massive starships - possibly "generation ships" making centuries-long hops from star to star at small fractions of the speed of light - is a common science-fictional one. Under some scenarios it might be possible for the ship and its technology to be primitive enough that the aliens might have a need for "resources" present on Earth - enriched uranium, perhaps, though there would probably be many easier ways of obtaining this than making an interstellar voyage.

Alternatively, in the case of aliens having originally evolved on an Earthlike world, it might simply be their goal to seize and colonise ours, as Prof Hawking says - regardless of the status of their homeworld, they might like to have another. The mere fact of their being able to get here across interstellar distances would tend to suggest they might be technically capable of overcoming humanity and exterminating or enslaving us - or confining limited numbers of us to reservations, if they were relatively kind aliens.

Given that those parts of humanity with resources to spare show no serious interest in developing space travel capabilities of our own*, it would seem that Prof Hawking is right and we'd do well to keep our heads down lest we draw the attention of some race a bit more interested in the universe around it.

Professor Hawking's views on aliens aren't new - he expressed much the same ideas to your correspondent during a discussion at the Cambridge Union, 20 years ago. The actual news today is the forthcoming documentary.

Stephen Hawking's Universe begins on the Discovery Channel on Sunday 9 May at 9pm. Check local times.

*NASA, the best funded space agency of the human race, boasts a budget of less than $20bn - a small fraction of a single percentage point of US government spending, and a tinier proportion yet of US gross domestic product."

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/04/26/hawking_aliens_warning/

alien/human hybrids that can shapeshift into Reptilian lizards and that they are secretly preparing humanity for eventual enslavement though their policies and that's why the world has such an extreme disparity of wealth?

Uh oh! Heh. heh. Shit. There's gotta be a way I can get on the good side of our alien overlords. We need Bill Pullman as president now!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFpes9qWMj4

If the rich were the aliens already we'd be on their toast by now.
But if the aliens show up with precious metals, jewels or just super alien perfect counterfeit money, the rich will sell us out.

Here he describes his harrowing ordeal with the dreaded two-pronged probe:

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Sure, we'd wind up like the Native Americans, wrapped up all snug and cozy in our smallpox-infested blankets... BUT.

Traveling aliens are be assumed to be intelligent - if not more so than we are. Surely they would realize that landing here and stepping off into our virus- and bacteria-infested soup of a planet would do as much harm to them as their microbes would be to us. Our microbes are tenacious little bastards, and if the newcomers weren't immediately infected, I have no doubt that some retrovirus would quickly adapt a method of ensuring its own survival.

Our contact with intelligent life, if it ever happens, would likely be limited to having a ship in geosynchronous orbit, communicating with us, but never meeting face to face.

medical capabilities would also be advanced enough for them to test for possible adverse bacteria and viruses before they landed, create vaccines and/or possibly use environmental protection suits.

...is that it makes the assumption that Earth viruses and bacteria could even survive in an alien body, much less do damage to it.

Viruses work by injecting their DNA into cells and hijacking normal replicative processes so they can procreate. If their cellular replicative processes are nothing like ours (they might not have DNA...or cells for that matter), viruses and bacteria which have evolved to survive in the Earthbound multicellular environment might find nothing they can latch on to.

The other possibility, of course, is that they ARE similar enough for our viruses and bacteria to jump to them. Which means that we're also similar enough so that THEIR viruses and bacteria can jump to us. You could get a War of the Worlds scenario that way, but there's no guarantee that we, or any other multicellular life on this planet, would survive the encounter.

We'd still be utterly fucked while only a few of their people would die. After all, I doubt they'd send their entire civilization. I'd claim that a net-win for the aliens.

What is it we could have that an advanced civilization could *possibly* want? There's nothing all that unique about Earth, so anything that they need almost certainly can be acquired closer to home. And we can't possibly represent a threat.

Hawking is applying Earth's history to the Cosmos at large with no proper reason.

I agree that the sheer numbers indicate there is likely to be other life out there, but that it would be anything like us is pushing it. That alien life in general would ACT like humans is even less likely.

I find it interesting though that within the last couple of years the most surprising people are suddenly discussing alien life. Even the Vatican has speculated on the matter.

:toast: :bounce: :mad: :smoke: O8) :evilfrown: :party: :party: :party: :bounce: :puke: :mad: :mad: :silly: :silly: :silly: :crazy: :eyes: :puke: :nopity: :hangover: :freak: :argh: :hurts:

"The idea of wandering alien raiders in massive starships - possibly "generation ships" making centuries-long hops from star to star at small fractions of the speed of light - is a common science-fictional one. Under some scenarios it might be possible for the ship and its technology to be primitive enough that the aliens might have a need for "resources" present on Earth - enriched uranium, perhaps, though there would probably be many easier ways of obtaining this than making an interstellar voyage."

Would need a mediocre energy source like uranium. Remember the faster you go the shorter the trip is to you so a good enough fuel will get you there and back without needing to muddle about training the next generation to tend the engines. Relativity works in favor of the people making the trip if they don't mind going home 150 years after they left.

Antimatter makes a much better boom and could be produced in useful quantities using solar energy if you do it close enough to the sun. Sure, it'll take a while or a lot of football field sized collectors around the orbit of Mercury but hey, if you're planning interstellar trips you're already thinking big. Funny story, they made some antimatter at CERN a couple of years ago. They had a few particles sitting there for study but let them go because no one wanted to stay and watch the machine over the Christmas holidays! Poof!

When I think about why someone would go that far searching for resources doesn't seem reasonable. Not when there's whole nebulae made of booze out there waiting to be tapped.

http://researchnews.osu.edu/archive/beercld.htm

Why bother going to where the scrabbley little monkeys call home if all you need is metal? There's way better sources for most stuff out there and no creatures to feel bad about squishing with the automated mining contraptions. The only things that might make it worth the trip would be the Earths biology or philosophy.

Intellectual and biological diversity that may not be found anywhere else.

less than current day New York.

The needed resource may not even be metal, it may be something else, water, people, sodium, etc. etc. or just expanding by colonizing suitable planets as they find them, the possibilities are endless.

Perhaps they're predators and the idea of getting drunk and hunting exotic species appeals to them, if they view us as just "scrabbley little monkeys," that may not present a difficult moral obstacle to them.

Or as you mentioned pure scientific curiosity, but even that can lead to dark consequences for humanity, Lewis and Clark spent a lot of energy crossing North America just to see what it was.

from Euro-American expansion over North America.

Lewis & Clark were sent on the ultimate combination survey and scientific expedition of North America, the knowledge gained from their trip enabled future generations of Euro-American expansion over the continent.

The analogy we're talking about here is comparing humanity's potential experience to that of the Native Americans, the previous poster to which I replied postulated as to a scientific motivation for an advanced alien species to visit (*as if that wouldn't pose a threat.)

*This was my interpretation of his meaning.

It happened, it can't unhappen. Nobody knew what would occur.

I really don't think we should try to hide from aliens because of it.

I don't believe we should hide, in fact I believe it's imperative that we master space travel, I just don't believe we should hang a neon sign out to any potential alien as to our location until we have mastered space travel.

In short I would much rather be the discoverer rather than the discoveree.

This was a post I made eleven days ago.

http://upload.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x8160179#8161181

Already out there. Including space, there's lot's of space to expand in space.

Speculating on the psychology of aliens (while fun) is beside the point I was trying to make. We don't even know if aliens would have an economy we'd recognize as such. It's quite possible that no communication would be possible between us. How do you talk to something that makes a spider look like a close relative? Is our model of rationality even going to intersect with theirs? Maybe, maybe not.

The possibilities are indeed endless but because of my own limitations I have to assume any potential alien will act in what I would call a rational manner and traveling to another star system for water found at the bottom of a decent sized gravity well is one whole heck of a lot harder than picking it up from comets in the Oort clouds between star systems.



I call us "scrabbley little monkeys" because unless we got really lucky and the bad aliens use MacTCP like in Independence day... we are so screwed. If they show up next week we just have to hope they're nice cause there's not a dang thing we could do to stop em doing anything they wanted. Hawking is right about that, and the ramifications to humanity would be rough even if they have the best of intentions but I really doubt it's going to be an issue.

Life may be common out there but if intelligent life were cropping up all over the place we'd have seen some signs of it by now. I'm coming to the opinion that tool using, expansive intelligences may be quite rare.

:edited for tpyo

Or at least if they have, we don't know about it.

I don't know where the idea came from that they'd land on the WH lawn and say 'take me to your leader', but it's the least likely scenario. :)

stuff in the Lagrange Points for one thing, the lack of disturbed dust on the moon for another.

I expect in the next couple of hundred years (if we make it) we'll be sending out lots of probes, maybe smarter than I am, to look for interesting things and report back. It will take a few thousand years but we're going to cover a good chunk of the galaxy that way even without traveling faster than light. If we make the probes able to build more of themselves there will be a 60 to 80 thousand year flood of information coming back this way, if we're here to receive it or not, until the whole galaxy had been poked at and there are probes hanging around all over the place.

That may seem like a long time but in the life of the universe it's not enough time to drink a cup of coffee. If intelligent life were common over the last say... five hundred million years we should be lousy with stuff from other civilizations. Lousy being relative of course. The Lagrange Points are the stable places (forgive me if this is a repeat) in the Earth - Moon orbit. Stuff there stays there, for good, so it's a perfect spot for anything observing the earth. The Moon is also a good base to use if you want to observe the Earth but the problem is it also preserves an excellent record of what happened on it. The astronaut footprints will be there for one heck of a long time and since we've mapped it to the point where we can see the paths Apollo astronauts used we can be pretty sure no one else has been there.



We may find some bits as we explore further and in better detail but I'm beginning to doubt it. Based on what we've seen so far a bio-system like ours is at least somewhat unusual. It's the kind of thing we'd want to send follow up stuff to once the probe reports back. We'd send all kinds of stuff to study another living world and this place has had life for over 4 billion years. Of course only in the last billion has it gotten all multi-cellular and interesting so I'm willing to let the first 3 billion slide. Still, that should be a billion years worth of stuff hanging around from other intelligences. It's the Fermi Paradox.

Almost nothing would make me happier than being wrong though. :evilgrin:

:Another tpyo!

Or walk on the moon. It's even smaller than WE are!

Intelligent life may have been around for millions of years. It still doesn't mean they've either discovered us, or care about us.

It's everywhere, easily modulated for communications and travels at the speed of light. That's as fast as it gets in normal space.

It's so useful that it's hard to believe a technological civilization wouldn't make some use of it. Even if they use quantum entanglement or gravity waves for the important stuff there's probably going to be a lot of places radio would to be useful. If intelligent tool using life is common we should be seeing some of it's signals soon. So far we aren't.

If there were 50 species like us in the last billion years who have managed to survive their technology we should be seeing signs of them. If not yet then soon. Every year we don't makes it more likely for us to be fairly lonely. I don't like the idea that intelligent tool using life is self limiting so I tend to believe it's very rare.

The Fermi Paradox must be answered.

Certainly if they can travel here, they are.

And like I said we're one tiny planet, circling one tiny star, in one arm of one galaxy in a universe full of galaxies.

I doubt there is any paradox. S'a big place, that's all.

This galaxy anyway.
Other galaxies are beyond the pale, unless we find one putting out artificial looking radio signals. If you want to postulate that another civilization will not be using radio that's possible but given how easy and cheap it is I expect the only example of an intelligent species we have (Humans) will be using it for a long time to come.

One quality self replicating probe probe gets built and in less than 150,000 years you can have every star in the galaxy visited without breaking the speed of light. It's a big payoff for a small initial investment. Assuming of course you can build that self replicating and refueling probe. Over the next couple of thousand years I expect we'll be able to.

We are one tiny planet putting out the radio flux of a star. Quite noticeable even to our own instruments if we were looking at it coming from another system.

The parsec is a unit of length, equal to just under 31 trillion kilometres (about 19 trillion miles), or about 3.26 light-years

We're talking in circles, yes distances are huge but so is the amount of available time in which someone could have arrived here at Earth to take a look around and leave a monitoring station at L1 or on the surface of the moon.

A billion years is a conservative estimate. Where are they? Where is their noise? Looks awfully quiet around here...

I love Star Trek but there isn't going to be a federation of local alien sentients. Not unless we evolve into 'em, but that's another story

And rather than make you ask, I included the information.

We have no idea how big it is out there, nor do we know how many other life forms are present, or what level of civilization they are at.

What we DO have is a huge ego...we assume they'd rush right over for coffee, but they might not have the slightest interest in us.

Anyway, I'm limiting my thinking to this galaxy because if we cant break light speed or fiddle that wormhole thing other galaxies are right out.

I'm not even suggesting aliens would definitely be that interested in us as a species. I'd just expect our biosphere to have caught someone's eye\pseudopod\electro-detection\nose and be worth a look\sniff\poke\wave if there were lots of them around.

Anyway, thanks for a good conversation. I love speculating about this stuff.

We are aware of some couple dozen planets around this and nearby stars. To the best of our knowledge this one is the only one with great amounts of free-flowing water.

Of course, not every alien life form would necessarily require water and an oxygen/nitrogen atmosphere, but we would be mighty attractive to any who do.

And if WE can figure out that the survival of our species - and the entire planet earth genetic history that spawned it - is dependent upon being a two-planet species at a minimum, so can any other intelligent beings out there. With only one life-sustaining planet we are vulnerable to cometary strikes, gamma ray bursts, and any number of other phenomena that could render us extinct.

(edited for typo)

It seems to me that's a line from a movie, but I can't place it.

GOT IT!

MIB

no one wants to hear a special without this type of speculating. It's not like Hawking's isn't known for not enjoying speculating with the pop science press. It sells books and gets you on the TV. Beats watching loggers, truck drivers and fisherman 24/7.

:) :) :)

Hawking, for all his problems and a specialty that would normally be seen as dry as dust, knows how to be popular to a general audience.

"Professor Hawking's views on aliens aren't new - he expressed much the same ideas to your correspondent during a discussion at the Cambridge Union, 20 years ago. The actual news today is the forthcoming documentary."

They just get a lot more press now, because he's better known.

If Hawkings is better known because of his intelligence and/or because he's right more often than wrong, I wouldn't consider that a strike either.

My take from your post was that Hawkings came out with this to boost ratings for his upcoming documentary, but apparently this has been his belief for 20 years so I don't see the promotion of ratings as a primary motivation.

Hawking is better known now than 20 years ago because of our media. TV, books and computers. He's even appeared in a Star Trek episode.

He's been right, and he's been wrong, and he's also changed his mind on some things.

His view has always been controversial on this, but few people knew about it. So if you're putting on a documentary, that's a good time to say these things.

Also more to the point, why do you consider his view controversial?

My final thought is if you're going to make a documentary about your long held beliefs how can you not discuss your beliefs?

In that, if there were aliens out there, they'd be rushing here to meet us. Or attack us, or whatever.

When this topic came up yesterday I suggested that anyone 'out there' probably has as much knowledge of, or interest in us, as we do in a single ant hill in Borneo.

We are one planet going around one star in one arm of one galaxy...in a universe full of galaxies.

I doubt anyone even knows we're here, much less cares.

He, or the PR people, are using a talking point to generate interest in the show. Nothing wrong with that. Anything that gets people interested in space is fine by me. It just doesn't mean he's right.

* Not taking Native Americans or Vikings in to account.

Likewise the discovery of Earth by an advanced space faring alien race doesn't need to be on purpose.

I also believe as the Universe is full of planets orbiting stars, orbiting countless galaxies, logic dictates life must be far more abundant than our human-centric egotism leads many people to believe.

something in particular. He had no idea there was a continent in his way, so I agree it was accidental.

However, even the 'known' universe is immense, and while nothing is impossible, some things are highly improbable.

What are the odds they'd run into us by chance?

And what are the odds after that, aliens would care?

Even humans believe we have a 'monkey mind' so I doubt we're impressive to aliens. They'd probably put us down as Species # 87,463,751 and keep on truckin'. :)

Native Americans; no doubt North America and South America seemed immense and the oceans were endless, they had their entire world to them selves a few hundred years later and they're living on isolated reservations, a fraction of their former number.

Chance or accident is just one possibility of discovery if aliens are advanced enough for interstellar space travel, their ability to detect would be light years ahead of ours, and we're just beginning to detect planets light years away from us.

As to whether they cared or not I find it difficult to believe they wouldn't not just because of us; in spite of our "monkey minds" but Earth it self would/could serve as a potential colony or base of resources increasing their species chances of survival.

At least as far as we know. Recent discoveries show early humans got about much more than we've ever given them credit for.

Chance discovery is a possibility like I said, but a very slim one.

And again, it's unlikely we'd have any resources of value to them. You are still thinking of them as humans, with human needs and concerns and priorities.

Native Americans didn't tame the horse until after the Spaniards brought them to the Americas.

Earth may still have resources for aliens whether they're humanoid or not.

but the horses died out at the end of the last ice age.

As to our resources, an example I can refer you to comes from Star Trek. 'Organians' were a bright light, not physical at all. I have no idea if there is any equivalent to them in real space, but like I said anything is possible. In which case they'd have not the slightest use for our resources or us. ;)

reality of Native American lack of mobility, without tamed horses and thus their perception of Earth's size during the time leading up to Columbus.

I suppose it's possible life may have evolved to an almost pure energy form as you cite but that doesn't eliminate the endless possibilities of mass based life forms which might require or want Earth's resources.

Maybe that is what they have been up to all these years. Taking samples to build up there immune system?

Seriously, I agree with you. And it is possible any aliens might have evolved to a higher consciousness that is peaceful and centered around science and not some strange planetary religion.

It's doubtful any of our viruses or bacteria would have any effect on alien biology.

so different, bacteria might not be interested in it or be adapted to thrive in alien flesh. I suppose that if they were carbon based bacteria might have an effect. Also, like in Avatar, our climate would probably be toxic for them to breathe.

I think HAwking is just dead wrong about aliens coming to Earth to abscond with our resources. The fact is that if an alien race is technologically capable of traveling the immense expanse of space at a fraction of the speed of light, they certainly would have the technology to capture all manner of asteroids loaded with mineral resources or water or whatever they are seeking. In short, the universe is simply brimming with resources that are found on Earth and this advanced alien race could surely find everything they need without having to come here and take it from us.

That being said, there are other scientists that have put forth theories of first contact that make much more sense to me. The one that makes the most sense to me is one that supposes that evolution and the survival of the fittest is not exclusive to this planet. Species on other worlds would probably have evolved governed by the same struggle for survival that species on this planet have had to contend with for survival. Human history shows quite clearly that groups with advanced weaponry and technology almost always subdue societies with lesser technology. There is no reason to believe that this phenomena is restricted to the human race and it could be a common universal occurance. One scientist even proposes that an advanced alien society might decide to protect itself from future attacks by less advanced species on other worlds by sterilizing those species found before they attain the technology to fight back or attack first. This would probably be done with self-replicating robotic probes rather than a personal visit. Replicating probes could geometrically increase their numbers as they travel through space to find potential future threats to the race that sent them. Self replicating probes after some tens of thousands of years could visit millions of systems looking for life to exterminate. A paranoid scenario to be sure, but using human history as a guide, it is not out of the realm of possibility.

I think it is much more likely that our first contact will be with a probe (malevolent or not) and not live aliens.

200 witnesses have been interviewed in the Roswell event, now the most heavily researched of IAC (Identified Alien Craft) or UFO incidents. The mortician in the town to this day said that the Roswell Army Airfield, then the only US base with nuclear bombers, had contacted him asking him to provide them with child-sized coffins with the odd stipulation that they be designed to be hermetically sealed. He was told that there had been some sort of air crash but none was reported in the area. When he got to the base there was mass hysteria and a nurse he knew there told him to get out of there or he'd be killed - by base personnel. She later told him she had participated there in an autopsy on aliens, and drew for him pictures of them.

The New York Times found the mortician. He's a real person and he maintains his story.

A major at the base, Jesse Marcel, was sent to investigate the crash and found metalic debris that was paper thin yet could not be bent or dented even with a sledge hammer. He showed his son some of the debris with markings unlike any writing on earth and told his son it was from another planet. The son is still alive and maintains his story to this day.

One of the witnesses to the crash recovery effort was sworn to secrecy. People who knew him demanded he tell them what had happened. Finally he replied, "You know how people talk about little green men? Well. THEY WEREN'T GREEN."


Still, I give Hawking credit for saying there are aliens. There are internal NATO documents saying that the earth is under observation by at least 4 separate alien species. All evidence indicates that they are not hostile. They've had thousands of years to work out their own hostilities and would have destroyed themselves by now if they were hostile. In my own view they see us as the immature teenager on the block driving around like a maniac in a hot rod. I think Hawking has it backwards. They're not the threat. We are.


Nevertheless, just look at the overall cosmic picture. By some estimates there are 100 billion galaxies in the universe and as many as 100 billion stars in many of those galaxies. Hubble Space Telescope evidence indicates that there may be as many as 5 planets per star in the universe. Stars form from accretion disks of dust and it is normal for some of that material to condense into planets orbiting the forming star. Work out the math. 100 billion squared times 5. If I've got my zeroes correct that works out to 50 SEXTILLION planets in the universe. We're the only one with life? Ridiculous.

All the building blocks of life, water, carbon and so on, are abundant in the universe. There is even some evidence that there is or was microbial life on Mars.

The bodies were largely intact.

my feeling is earth has been under observation for a very very very long time. And our technology is only a very very very brief flicker in time, if one could even call it a flicker it is so minute.

is that unless they developed the necessary tech in the last few weeks and headed straight for us, they've had several hundred thousand years to 'attack' us if they wanted to.

Before we had any clue as to what was going on, and before we started to use these 'resources' they supposedly need.

Earth is perfect for humans because we evolved to suit this environment. An intelligent alien species, who probably evolved on a planet looking nothing like ours, would see our planet as being just as hostile an unwelcoming as we see Venus.

As for other resources, Earth has nothing that can't be found elsewhere. Uranium can be found on nearly any rocky planet, and should be much more plentiful in even younger star systems. Oxygen? Nitrogen? Carbon? Water? All common, and easily found in space.

We may be relatively primitive, but we still posess nuclear weapons and are of sufficient numbers to be at least a minor annoyance. Why bother with Earth, when they can get those same resources anywhere else without the hassle?

All the things that are important to us, like oil, gold, uranium and so on, would probably be of no interest to another species. So unless we have something we haven't discovered, like 'Corbomite' that they might want I think we're safe. :)

Gold and uranium should exist on just about any terrestrial space body with active tectonics. In fact, it would be easier to find them on other planets, because the primitives wouldn't have spent the last few thousand years digging out all of the easier finds first.

Oil should be present on any planet with carbon based plant life and flowing water.

We've already burned most of our oil, and mined most of our surface deposits of rarer minerals. If an alien species were looking for them, this wouldn't be an ideal planet to target.

Because it's highly unlikely that our lone little planet would be the only one to have exactly what they need.

This planet was nice unclaimed real estate for a very long time.

Trees have been around to provide support for alien beach resort hammocks for 475 million years. Sure, there were some big lizards but any decent high tech civilization could have developed a spray or something.

but I remain skeptical that faster than light space travel is possible. Seems to me that if it were, we'd have been contacted by now. If this Roswell incident was legit, why hasn't it happened again...with an intentional landing, instead of an accidental crash?

Basically, I'll believe we're being contacted by aliens when I see them.

As a potential driving force behind intelligence. It's certainly possible. What if a aggressive,intelligent species lost the balance between predator and prey? Anyway, I read this this morning and was a bit taken aback, as this is a very common theme in Sci-fi, and sounded more like Sci-fi than science. Not impossible though.

and they are not hostile. They also have no "prime directive" of non-interference. They think their involvement is necessary to keep us from destroying ourselves in our infancy. They prefer to maintain a relatively low profile. But there is no question that a lot of the secrecy is at our end. The US government has a massive project to investigate the aliens and reverse engineer their craft. The pattern of suppressing the truth by bumping people off, plane crashes and the like, reads almost exactly like the aftermath of the Kennedy assassination, when 18 material witnesses were bumped off. It's a cosmic Watergate.

resource on the way to us and if they were looking for us or a similar world then there is nothing we can do to hide from them.

I figure any civilization advanced enough to get here either couldn't care less, finds us interesting in a petri dish kind of way, want to shepherd us, or just about to clear the path for the new hyperspace route or whatever.

What in the universe could we have that we would miss that they wouldn't have easy access too? We can see molecular manipulation on the horizon so a truly space faring society could more than likely build whatever they desire from the atomic level. I doubt we'd even be worth using for livestock seeing they would almost surely be able to grow us from a DNA sample and they could could terraform planets in more desirable areas rather than having to adapt our to their biology.

I think Dr Hawkings is smoking something good to have more than a passing concern about this, I guess a civilization could come by the technology by some accident or random luck and therefore lack development across the board that would be expected so he is right obviously that if there was malicious intent then we would be utterly powerless, there would be no Independence Day but those have to be the lowest odds.

...

I would think, given his condition, he's on prescription drugs but that's all.

I think he's high because I don't think he's thinking too terribly straight and have already stated why I think that.

I disagree with his statements, but it's not often there is a program on that gets humans thinking about alien life.

Assuming there are many intelligent species, it's reasonable to think that at least one of them would annihilate us upon contact for whatever reason, one being that it's just safer for them, to assume we will kill them if they don't strike first. And all it would take to be the end of us is one such hostile species that is sufficiently more advanced than us.

And as the "small-mindedness" of referring to our own planet's history in extrapolating what other planets' species might do--given the knowledge at our disposal, what better reference can we make?

Even WE recognize that as a dumb idea!

As to what better reference can we make, many of our sci-fi writers have frequently shown us other possibilities.

It's fantasy. Besides which, it's also replete with evil hordes of killer aliens. The idea that a society more advanced than our own would necessarily be peaceful is naive IMHO.

I never said anything about evidence. I said sci-fi writers have shown us other possibilities than the human POV. So some of us at least can think outside the box or the gravity well.

As to sci-fi in general, I don't know what you've read but there are far more intelligent aliens than killer ones. And while it's fiction, many of today's inventions and gadgets and outlook have come about because someone imagined them first.

No, aliens might not be more peaceful, but the idea that they're warlike, or more warlike than us is another human view applied to others.

I mean to say that we are the only observable example of intelligent life that we have. The fact that we are warlike, however, is hard, irrefutable evidence that it is at least possible for such a species to evolve in that way. Assuming that there are a great number of intelligent species in the universe (a big assumption of course), it is virtually certain that at least some of them would be warlike, perhaps moreso than we. And it only takes one of them, with sufficient technology, to wipe out hundreds of peaceful species.

That's a fairly bleak assessment, of course, and one would hope that the wisest species would be both peaceful and able to repel such others. But it seems fairly obvious, looking at ourselves, again the only real-life example we have, that such militant, xenophobic species could exist. And Any sci-fi writer's imaginings, however compelling or insightful (and I am a fan of the genre), can't be given the same weight.

Or that we can easily communicate with, we are. However, learning to communicate with dolphins may be just a prep course for communicating with aliens. :)

I don't think we are 'warlike.' We've been TOLD that we're warlike for so long that we believe it. However throughout history, trade, intermarriage, treaties and so on have been far more common. It just doesn't get the headlines that war does. But I'd say we've gotten much further ahead through cooperation than we ever have from war. Mind you, there are yahoos on every block. ;)

They could all be warlike in space, or all quite peaceable, we won't know till we get out there I guess.

I give a lot of weight to sci-fi, since we're living in a world first imagined by them and then made real by scientists.

The fact is that ALL life on this planet is governed by the rules of evolution. Survival of the fittest is a basic, fundamental underpinning of each and every living thing on this planet. There is no reason whatsoever to doubt that the pressures of evolution and survival are restricted to only this planet. It could very well be, and it is highly likely, that alien life forms have had to deal with the same survival of the fittest pressures that life forms on Earth have had to contend with over eons of time.

In addition, humans ARE a warlike species and history offers that it is almost a rule that technologically advanced societies ALWAYS subjugate lesser advanced societies. In fact, until only very recently in our history, there are no examples of benevolent discovery by our species. Further, even benevolent discovery by an advanced species could spell our doom through unintended consequences.

In regard to cooperation, you are partially correct. The cooperation that has allowed our species to advance has almost always been between family, clan, tribal or racial groups AND this cooperation was due SOLELY to a collective desire to defend the family, clan etc. from OTHER families, clans etc.

Your position is a pleasant bit of fiction and wishful thinking. The historical record proves quite clearly that our species is violent and warlike by nature and that basic, hard wired nature has allowed us to survive.

As been pointed out, we really don't seem to have anything worth taking that isn't easier to get elsewhere. Likewise, we are certainly a small planet in a relatively sparse and out-of-the-way area. That said, we are currently throwing off some pretty intriguing signals--radio for nearly 100 years, seriously powered stuff for about 75 years, and tuned-for-space signals for a couple decades. That could make aliens curious.
The real danger from aliens isn't them doing something hostile. It is the havoc they most certainly would bring to our culture. For instance, say they came, gave us (or even accidentally pointed us to) extreme longevity--could we adjust to it before we drown in overpopulation? Maybe they come with proof that Jesus was a space traveler with a wicked sense of humor?
Some fascinating stuff, but really, the numbers are a lot less positive than the hype for the documentary let on. First, life billions of light years away is totally irelevent...they won't get our signals for billions of years. The real sphere of interest is only about 75 light years. For them to be lured here by the early signals, the current sphere is only about 35 light years. The level of technology that would allow us to contact any aliens is also highly overestimated. It is not that they just need to be advanced enough...they can't be too advanced. I can't decode smoke signals--more importantly, I wouldn't even be aware that they were signals. Radio may not be what "grown-ups" use to talk to each other.

Any civilization with a powerful enough visible light telescope is going to see that the night side of Earth is lit up like a Christmas Tree. Our tv and radio broadcasts have been heading out into space at light speed for the better part of a century.

What are we supposed to do, hide behind the curtains?

And any kind of speculation that gets people to watch a TV show involving a theoretical physicist and aliens is a plus.

I doubt our lights, broadcasts or even space shots are visible elsewhere though. Like I said, we're in the back-of-beyond.

It's a bit too late to start worrying about whether we've been seen or not.

Right now, our radio signals are speeding by Alpha Pictoris http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alpha_Pictoris , having passed about 30 OTHER major star systems.

Assuming intelligent cultures COULD wander the universe, an entire Vogon Constructor Fleet could be headed our way right now.

Given that we couldn't produce a decent carrier frequency, we could still produce enough power to rise above the noise level of the general universe.

And given that interstellar civilizations would have MUCH more sensitive receivers than us primitive humans, face it - we've already been detected.

Or checking at all. Or even use such primitive devices.

they already know about us, much as we are learning about the rest of space... except they well might be thousands of years beyond us in development. In fact, we just well might be "ho-hum" to advanced aliens in whatever form, if we could even comprehend them.

It's only in our egotistical minds that we believe ourselves to be special, and earth special, but we "really" have nothing to compare ourselves too. I would welcome some democratic aliens to kick ass!:) :) :)

...is his theory concerning the aliens motives. Not that I totally disagree, but the assumption that advanced civilizations could not possibly have a sense of benevolence, or a thirst for exploration in gaining knowledge about the universe is short-sighted. Is it a gamble for us? Yes. Is it one we are willing to risk? Undoubtedly, otherwise Seti would not exist. For many replying to this thread, I would proffer that the earth is but one planet, limited in it's resources, and dictated by fact and history as to how the elements existing on this world have been developed and used. Another planet, millions of light years away, could have resources not known to this planet, or star system, and I would venture the periodic charts of elements for those planets could greatly differ from our own. Just because the "almighty" human race dictates something is impossible doesn't necessarily make it so outside our realm of knowledge. The arrogance of believing we are alone is but one aspect of that arrogance. That technology cannot advance beyond what the human race says is possible is another. If it were so, a nuclear plant would have been powering the caves of the first humans to establish civilization. We know this is not true, and it took thousands of years for it to come about. Just because we have that technology today does not mean new and innovative uses may not be found in the future. If we survive, where will our technology be a thousand years from now? What if there is life out there that has had that one thousand years or more already. Our limited human "laws" of physics may not apply elsewhere. Thanks.
quickesst

.when first contact happens.. it will happen... sorry Stephen....

Rod Serling was way ahead of Hawking on this one.

His contributions have not been that significant in the grand scheme of things. Hawking radiation and the entropy problem would have been discovered by others pretty quickly.

Sorry Steven but it is true.

You could eliminate everyone from Newton to Einstein by claiming others would have discovered what they did.

Hawking's place is secure in history. Hawking radiation was a groundbreaking theory and it will be in history and science books for thousands of years. This theory has provided much evidence to be considered when discussing entropy and the future of the universe. In fact, there are many scientists that believe that entropy and thermodynamics are absolutely critical to understanding not only the big bang, but the future of the universe.

Christopher Columbus killed the indians because of disease and slavery. No species advanced enough to travel across space like that is going to be susceptible to disease the way 15th century humans were. Their medical technology will be far too advanced.

As far as slavery, heavy machinery and robotics can do the work of human slaves far more efficiently. A coal mine made up of 100 workers with heavy machines can do more work than a mine with 1000 slaves. Same with robotics. Bipedal robots (which are only 20-50 years away) can do most of the work of a human. There is no incentive for another race from another planet to enslave us. They would have robots that have stamina, strength, flexibility, docility and intelligence far beyond our own.

On earth we have, more or less, conquered every microbe infection that exists. Not 100%, but for the most part we know how to stop, control and treat diseases as long as people have basic infrastructure, education, technologies and medical care. If they do, you can pretty much avoid death by microbes your whole life. And even most of those can be treated with antibiotics or other meds. Its absurd to think aliens wouldn't have the technology to conquer microbes when humans (who would be less advanced) already do.

Not only that but Alien physiology would be different. Viruses wouldn't affect them. And who knows what bacteria or protozoa would do. It is unlikely that their microbes would affect us or vica versa since our receptors and anatomy is different.




Since most planets would be empty it wouldn't be a problem.



This part to me makes no sense. Any alien species that can conquer space travel can likely conquer fusion. Fusion is how heavy elements are made in the first place. And since most of the universe is hydrogen, I'm sure they'd know how to fuse hydrogen into heavier elements to use for their civilization.

Not only that, but many many planets and asteroids in the universe have more than enough natural resources to go around. There aren't many alien species out there (if there are any). But there are tons of asteroids and planets that could easily be mined. Why they'd want to come to ours, I don't know. That is like if you were the only person on earth and living in your house. all other 2 billion homes on earth are empty. Then you worry that a burglar will break into your house and ignore the 1,999,999,999 empty homes.

Plus an advanced species could find alternatives for construction if need be. Even humans can do that. During wars, when natural resources are short, we find alternatives. The idea of traveling trillions of miles when basic R&D will find an alternative makes no sense.

I notice a lot of commentary about beautiful, resource-filled Earth being something alien civilizations would certainly covet, even if humanity just sucks.

But what if our Earth is really undesirable in the grand scheme of things?

What if it (and our entire solar system) is as undesirable a locale as we might consider Mars or the moon to be?

Granted, based on what we know now it SEEMS like Earth is a rarity. But that's only based on our insignificant observations of our teeny-tiny corner of our Universe.

What if, out there and plentiful, are scads of empty solar systems filled with planets 5X the size of Earth with far superior climates, no natural disaster issues to contend with, far more abundant resources, and devoid of dangerous predators (like us lol)?

I just find it interesting that the same folks who say humanity is "insignificant" to advanced civilizations automatically assume that the Earth is still a precious jewel that anyone would be a fool not to want to find RIGHT AWAY!

Probably considered a fixer-upper.

But on this topic, he has as much knowledge as I do, a guy with a 120-125 I.Q. It's all pure speculation.

I dont think we will be bothered unless we threaten what ever resources this planet holds.

In Arizona first, that should buy us some time :thumbsup: