Oil Leak Could Be 5 Times Larger than the 5 Times Larger Estimate (25,000 Barrels a Day)

Source: Christian Science Monitor

C'mon, how big is the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, really?

Official estimates for the flow of oil out of the Deepwater Horizon well may be just a drop in the bucket. Critics call for release of worst-case scenario data to describe the oil spill disaster.

By Patrik Jonsson, Staff writer / May 1, 2010
Atlanta

Calculating the exact flow of crude out of the bent Deepwater Horizon oil rig "riser" pipe on the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico is difficult. But it's now likely that the actual amount of the oil spill dwarfs the Coast Guard's figure of 5,000 barrels, or 210,000 gallons, a day.

Independent scientists estimate that the renegade wellhead at the bottom of the Gulf could be spewing up to 25,000 barrels a day. If chokeholds on the riser pipe break down further, up to 50,000 barrels a day could be released, according to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration memo obtained by the Mobile, Ala., Press-Register.

As estimates of the spill increase, questions about the government's honesty in assessing the spill are emerging. At the same time, pressure is building for the US to release worst-case scenario estimates so residents of the Gulf Coast can adequately prepare.

more: http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2010/0501/C-mon-how-big-is-the-Gulf-of-Mexico-oil-spill-really

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We first heard 1,000 barrels a day, then we learned it was 5,000 barrels a day. Now, it could be 25,000 barrels a day.

And they have no proven methods to stem it.

No words.

barrels a day to 250k a day! We are not getting the full story and probably won't with the M$M in charge.

& compared it to the amount now being reported as leaking?

If its far less than 25,000 gal per day, it makes me wonder if they werent constraining output to maintain a lower supply.

Or underreporting the amount they were pumping.......

I am not oil expert, so I really don't know how the numbers work.

It is already at EV > 1.0

This is already a Major Fuck up of cosmic proportions.

We are rapidly running out of superlatives.

we could be around 7 million gallons. Exxon Valdez was 11 million.

By my calculation, in US gallons, it has already surpassed the Exxon Valdez.

(assuming it will take 90 days to cap the well)

Even going by the lowest estimates.

We are so fucked, there are no words to describe it.

Three months for a temporary fix that hasn't been done at that depth. They aren't ever sure that it can be done.

I am having a hard time getting my mind around the scope. The highly dubious 'best-case scenario' leaves us with 3 months of gushing oil. And, decades of pollution. I just can't even fathom what we are facing.

It's just sickening. No words is right. We are really fucked.

These greedy assholes are literally destroying our planet before our eyes.

are going to be a product of the BP Crisis Management Team. In addition to Emergency Response Teams, oil companies activate Crisis Management Teams (Company executives working with attorneys, public relations experts, lobbyist, and others) during this kind of event to produce the press releases, deal with legal issues, reach out to friendly politicians, and manage the image of the organization. In short, the real "crisis" during this sort of event is generating enough bullshit to minimize cost, legal liability, and loss of reputation.

The spill volume associated with the Exxon-Valdez spill (10.8 million gallons) is a low-end estimate that Exxon was successful, with the help of captured federal agencies under the command of George Bush I, in getting fixed in the public's mind. More realistic estimates based on analysis of the oil/water mixtures in tankers used to offload the Exxon-Valdez provide a more realistic estimate of around 30 million gallons, which you will seldom read anywhere outside of Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation documentation.

The Gulf of Mexico cleanup is going to be one massive exercise in what the industry calls "loss prevention." BP, with the help of the MSM, is already working to shift the blame to Transocean (owner of the Deepwater Horizon platform) and Haliburton (responsible for finishing the well). Never mind that these were both contractors working for BP at the time. Oil companies often use contractors to distance themselves from liability--basically contracting out shortcutting to others.

If so, why? If there's that much oil, why was it being capped?

Halliburton was putting the finish top on the well in preparation for putting it into production.

But the various news sources describe the events and circumstances so differently I am not entirely sure.

kind of rig) to be moved from another operation to the DWH location. Don't remember where I saw that.

Whatever the hell they were thinking in terms of providing America and the world with these tremendous easements to their sense of an energy future. With the level of inexperience brought to this calamity - this BP/Halliburton misadventure will cost America one full day, everything: every light bulb, refrig, A/C, gas pump, server, computer, french fry friar, ball park light, baby's night light, daddy's mistress' vibrator charger the whole schlemiel down - all of it: darkness http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWLeKNc2GZM

we're pretty well fucked.
An absolute best case scenario is we use this as a teachable moment and garner huge support for renewable energy.
The alternative is destroying the Gulf and refusing to learn anything from it.
Either way the Gulf is probably going to be damaged beyond anything we have the capability to fix anytime soon, but at least with the former option we can salvage the rest of the planet.

..and where is our Crack Investigative Press Corp?

They are in Washington D.C., pretending to be Reporters and eating Rubber Chicken.

Maybe "Crack" is the watch word. As in the Media and Press Whores are in Washingotn doing Crack....listening to Jay Leno make bad jokes... while our country dies.

to nationalize all assets of BP within the Continental U.S. and in all its properties that fall within the jurisdiction of the U.S.. Once they have secured all assets - then reallocation of the liquid assets to start to address the problems that can be addressed. I would also not engage in a contract with any corporation or entity that had any role in this disaster (goodbye Halliburton).

On a personal note, as I am not secure in my knowledge about cleanups - but I think that this problem is going to be with the U.S. and surrounding areas for some time. But I also have a gut feel that some rocket scientist or political is going to come up with the idea to use some serious explosives to shut down the flow....

This truly is one of those times - that someone a whole lot smarter than me is going to have to think outside the box and discover a solution. And, my thoughts are that if I lived in the area that is going to be impacted - it might be time to find new careers, because it is just a matter of time before BP walks away from this mess.

To those that might say that BP isn't the owner, then I would say, yeah, sure, but in my opinion the leasing contract is a fig leaf to cover their big assets ass.

How many nations will this U.S.-sponsored disaster affect?

It's going to be pleasant watching "good Obama" tell 40 nations to fuck off.

to describe ecological disaster in the 21st century.