Greek uprising.....Is this what governments and the corporations that own them fear most?

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Greece is a country with rich, underlevereaged savers, underleveraged corporates and a healthy banking system whose government happens to have borrowed a hell of a lot of money. But the world has grounds to be scared: with rates at 5% and government debt comfortably above 100% of GDP, servicing that debt costs 6% of GDP at the moment. GDP growth, in the meantime has not touched 6% nominal in a long, long time.

So here's the deal: No matter what happens, the debt is now at a level where its growth has reached escape velocity. Even if Greece were to run zero deficit, ultimately we are heading to default. We can default now or we can default later. Is that a big deal? Frankly, no. 75% of the debt, probably more, is held externally. If JGBs fail to pay coupon, that's a disaster for Japan, since 95% are held domestically. If GGBs fail to pay coupon, it's far less catastrophic. For the debt-deflation spiral to start, you need the debt to be internal.

With an alleged 216 billion held by foreigners (plus the recent 8) the contagion risks mainly lie outside the border! Even the banks who are in the news for holding all those ECB-funded GGB's aren't as long as US banks are long Treasuries, for example, though they would probably have to be restructured. Basically, the economy is paying 5% or even 6% of GDP to service a debt whose failure will hurt three or four times more abroad than it will in Greece. Do I look worried?

Supposing we default, what will be left is a AAA credit here. Give it five years and a line will form to our door to lend us more. It would not be fantastic for us to default, granted, because at the moment we are in a virtual reality where a bunch of greedy foreigners lend us a fresh 5% of GDP every year on top of what they were lending us the year before. If we default they won't lend us again for a short while. During that period we will have to live within our means. That will be a haircut. But it won't be a catastrophe for Greece. Germany took a bigger GDP hit than that last year, for example, and so did the UK!

Indeed, I'm willing to bet Greeks continue to have good access to the international financial markets, and here's why: as I'm writing this, Greek shipowners owe some EUR 100 billion to the international banking system.

Even with the Baltic Dry somewhere in the dungeon, this debt is being honored and serviced. Greek companies will be just fine, basically. It's the government that is the joke here, not the country! Nevertheless, a sovereign default by Greece will set off a cascade. Italy has tons more debt than Greece and a much bigger proportion of it is held in Italy.

That won't be a picnic. It gets worse than that, of course. People like to talk about PIGS, but the real oink oinks of the past decade have resided in the protestant part of the world. The United Kingdom and the US have total debt of more than 400% of GDP. You can never grow your way out of 400%, it's as simple as that. And this concludes my first point: be careful what you wish for here, because Greece is a rich country that will mainly hurt others if it defaults. Directly (through the default) and indirectly, via contagion.

A default will have both negatives for Greeks (less money to spend) and positives, which don't concern anybody here....

The newspapers have us think that bankers were the winners. We did not do too poorly, but we are not the big winners. The big winners here are the baby boomers. That's because they have their name against some 80% of the value in all pension funds and insurance policies.

And if the banks had gone down, that's who holds their debt and much of their equity. Bottom line, had the banks gone down, no insurance product would be worth a penny more than the paper it's printed on. So basically, the 2008 bailout sacrificed business, i.e. our generation, but saved our parents. The US bailout was intergenerational transfer, pure and simple. Now, our parents did not have enough kids.

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Talk about the bankers is fashionable, but in the bigger scheme of things it was a side-show. It's pretty much the same with the Greek situation. Yes, we Greeks have been naughty. Yes, we are overindebted. Yes, we live above our means. But, much like the evil bankers, this has nothing whatsoever to do with Greece. That is my main thesis here. The Greek saga (for I refuse to see it as a tragedy) is all about saving the French and German baby boomers' retirement.

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The goings on in America, where nobody is thankful for having been "saved" and where the economy is suffering the result of a misguided, short-term decision may push the French and German government to say "the Greeks don't deserve a bailout" and allow their insurance behemoths to take the hit. But I would not bet on it. My money is that the baby boomers prevail again! Make sure you've covered GGB shorts by the end of the week!!! I, for one, hope we're allowed to default, and here's why: Once upon a time, Greece was a model small democracy. An extremely frugal government ran tight budgets and provided an extremely basic safety net, and truly threadbare services for a very low cost: Tax collected was minimal.

While tax rates may have been high, collection was virtually nil. A small oligarchy was the only source of capital and had the acumen, education and experience to deploy it as the country developed. Old families controlled the steel, cement, foodstuffs and construction companies that rebuilt Greece after the war. As recently as 1980, debt/GDP was at 30% and it would have been much lower were it not for the high costs of defense. When Greece joined the EU in 1980, all that changed. It was party time. Money that was sent to build the Greek infrastructure was funneled pretty much directly into the pockets of the oligarchy as well as the new Socialist oligarchy that emerged.

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The notion that Brussels will dictate to Greece terms on public sector wages and impose a May deadline are, frankly, comical. The government may like the idea, but the entire population will probably go on strike. Needless to say, Greece can pay. If the government chooses to freeze savings accounts it can pay the whole kahuna in one go. But the Greek people will refuse to take any hardship. This is a matter between some French and German baby-boomers, their government, and twenty Greek families who will happily take more. I hope we default and the country is freed from the curse of free money that befell it in 1980. Once our politicians have no more money to disburse to the oligarchs, we can start to be proud Europeans.

goldman & other financial houses = also corrupt, & it is to those entities that a great deal of the cash will ultimately go.

the people have no power to "get their government in order" without revolt & resistance, which is what i advocate.

greece is not "broke". the financial houses which run the world are actually "broke," & trying to shift that cost.