The NYC Teabagger bomber

I've taken an interest in terrorism since the terrorist attacks in the 1970's. Here are some speculations on what the NYC bomb tells us about the person who planted the bomb.

38 gallons of gasoline will ignite and burn, but it won't explode vigorously enough to do serious damage to anything other than the car it's in. The danger at that point would be that the fire would have exploded the three propane tanks, sending glass shrapnel into the crowd. It would take quite some time for such a fire to even rupture the tanks, because they are designed not to fail: unless they were tampered with, even that's not a guaranteed thing. This is a very poorly planned detonation device, unlikely to kill anyone: who would stand around a Nissan Pathfinder while it burned?

Bombs have three basic components: explosive, a detonator with a smaller charge and a lower ignition point that sets off the explosives, and some sort of device for completing the electrical circuit that will fire the detonator, such as, as appears to be the case here, an alarm clock. The simplest way to complete the charge is to affix one end of a wire to one of the hands of the clock (the other is often removed for sake of simplicity) and the other to a static position where it will close the circuit at the appointed time.

This isn't rocket science. As everyone knows, it's pretty easy to create a bomb using readily available materials. The best explosive available to someone who doesn't have access to commercially available products is probably the ammonium nitrate/diesel fuel mixture used by Timothy McVeigh and countless others over the years. Yet, apparently, this bomb involved a gun locker full of "harmless fertilizer." Dude, you're supposed to mix the fertilizer with the diesel fuel, and you're not supposed to use gasoline at all. The bomber also apparantly strapped M88 fireworks to the propane tanks. As one would expect, the M88s went off harmlessly without exploding the tanks. I can think of at least two different ways you could actually ignite a propane tank with M88s, but you certainly wouldn't do it by simply affixing the firework to the strongest point of the tank and igniting it.

Taken all together, what do we have? Fireworks, a gun locker, fertilizer and some propane tanks. Which one is the detonator, which is the explosive? Why use a gun locker, which is an expensive thing, as the containment device for the fertilizer? My guess would be that the bomber had a spare gun locker laying around, perhaps because he bought a newer, better one. This sounds like a redneck engineering project.

Yes, it is possible this was the work of an Islamic extremist, but if so, it was the work of someone self-radicalized, not someone who had been to Afghanistan or Pakistan for actual training. I very much doubt this was the work of an established militia: whatever you can say about those folks, they at least know how to make a bomb. This whole thing sounds jerry-rigged: if you were to go to the trouble of killing people for political reasons, wouldn't you at least test your detonator? So, however it was that this person was radicalized, it was probably fairly recently. It seems unlikely they have actual military experience, at least not in combat arms or explosives. Someone who had been politically radicalized for a long time would have had the time to devise a better device.

So what do we have? Someone who is angry, vicious and stupid. This bomb was the explosive equivalent of a misspelled sign. Odds are they should be looking for a teabagger.

and the points you've made are all valid ones. No matter what excuse this person used for his murderous hate or which god he blamed, he is definitely a goober, probably a goober with serious mental issues.

Thank goodness.

But the pressure cooker part, which you're missing, completes your puzzle.

The cooker provides the pressure, the M-80s provide the explosive, and some part of the consumer-grade fireworks act as the blasting cap. The propane is the fuel, presto: fuel-air bomb.

I don't think we've heard the last about the fertilizer, either, but that's part of a wild-ass speculation I'm not ready to make yet.

From what little we know, though, it sounds as if they did it wrong. This thing had no chance of being a functional thermobaric weapon.

...the pressure cooker sealed the deal for me. Without that piece, I might've gone in the same direction. :hi:

Instead, he lit the device and ran. Not a truly committed terrorist.

And being in Times Square he was almost certainly under constant video surveillance. They will probably catch him today.

tea baggers or Muslim terrorists?


Who has gun lockers?

tea baggers or Muslims terrorists?


Who doesn't know how to make a proper bomb?

tea baggers or Muslim terrorists?

...here's the approximate location: (Google Maps street view for 206 W 45th Street, New York, NY)

http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=206+45th+Street,+NY,+New+York&sll=40.758056,-73.985768&sspn=0.001149,0.001076&ie=UTF8&hq=&hnear=206+W+45th+St,+New+York,+10036&ll=40.7581,-73.985872&spn=0,0.001076&t=h&z=20&layer=c&cbll=40.758056,-73.985768&panoid=nsNpTSMBMkl4Fb9JMFZ1Yw&cbp=12,277.95,,0,5

The SUV would have been parked somewhere between this point and the entrance to the Minskoff Theater (Lion King). (The t-shirt vendor's spot can be seen: the "$2.99" sign with flags around it.)

Schubert Alley, where the suspected person was caught on camera, is about half a block down, between the Junior's restaurant and the Booth Theater (Google Maps street view for 250 W 45th Street, New York, NY will show it:
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=206+45th+Street,+NY,+New+York&sll=40.758056,-73.985768&sspn=0.001149,0.001076&ie=UTF8&hq=&hnear=206+W+45th+St,+New+York,+10036&ll=40.7581,-73.985872&spn=0,0.001076&t=h&z=20&layer=c&cbll=40.758056,-73.985768&panoid=nsNpTSMBMkl4Fb9JMFZ1Yw&cbp=12,277.95,,0,5 )

More from:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/05/03/nyregion/20100503-times-square-bomb-graphic.html?ref=nyregion

Looks like it would have taken out the Lion King theatergoers instead. Which means lots of kids.

If he wanted to get Viacom, he could have gotten closer.

Extremely succinct and to the point! :thumbsup:

Could be anyone, but sounds like a teabagger to me.

Especially those from Pakistan?

He sure looks like another tim mcveigh teabbagger wannabee to moi.

IF it's not the nut, why would he throw away his shirt?

Frankly, to me he looks like anybody who decided the day was warmer than they'd dressed for and was removing an excess layer. I would guess they have unreleased video or photos tracing this guy from the vehicle to the point where he shows up on this camera. Otherwise I don't see any reason to single this guy out.

The guy could have been hot, or maybe the shirt smelled. Whatever the reason, that alone doesn't seem to make him a suspect in my book Hell I watched the video and the guy is no where near the SUV. He is walking down the sidewalk past the SUV from the video that I saw. In fact there is another guy, at that same point and time, that does appear to be coming from the street area behind the SUV.

Either way I think everybody would do good to calm down a bit. There is way too much speculation at this point. And this guy in the video could be innocent for all we know. Lets just wait and see what happens. It could be teabagger, but I will wait till there is some more concrete evidence of that. The freepers are scum, but that doesn't mean, even if this was a white guy, that he is automatically a freeper. It could be some white guy who just lost his job and wanted to make a statement. Who knows?

that the bomb had foreign provocation. And I think it's beyond the pale for 99% of the Tea Baggers.

More likely, it's a copy-cat McVeigh attempt based on Neo-Nazi desire to attack and kill the "feminized wimps" (quote by author of Turner Diaries) in America's cultural center

Parallels between NY City attempted bombing and Timothy McVeigh’s bombing:

The botched NY bombing shares a number of striking parallels with the Timothy McVeigh bombing in Oklahoma City beside the obvious vehicle-building-walk-cooly-away narrative . . . although that, in itself, is very compelling–the botched bomber replicating the act of his (or her?) hero in broad strokes. But there seem to be a couple light strokes as well.

The botched bomber placed eight bags of fertilizer which the investigators say was non-explosive, into a gun box. If he knew the fertilizer was useless, it would be a clear homage to McVeigh. (The gun box being a tip of the hat to McVeigh's military background.) (If he didn't know this it could still be an homage, hoping to replicate his hero's methods as closely as possible.)

The NY attempted bomber locked the van's doors, leaving the keys inside. Some accounts say McVeigh left the keys in the Ryder's cab and locked the doors. (I think the case is that he took the keys, but there is no accounting where these people get their information. Source: http://history1900s.about.com/cs/crimedisaster/p/okcitybombing.htm)

Fireworks went off in the NY van alerting vendors. The attempted bomber appeared to be inept in a number of ways, so it is not likely that the clock set off the fireworks. It is more likely that he lit a long fuse. Similarly, McVeigh lit two fuses just before he left the Ryder.


Additionally, MSNBC played a show based on The McVeigh Tapes: Confessions of an American Terrorist on the 19th of April.

I could be way off, but if I was leading the investigation I'd be putting resources into this question, hoping to find him before he is successful with his homicidal intentions.


Therefore, in an investiation taking these matters seriously:

I’d look into far-right web/hate sites, those where McVeigh is discussed glowingly. Maybe Free Republic.

Since the person’s issues were important enough to kill for, I think his alignment to McVeigh would be apparent in his screen name (anagram of “Timothy McVeigh”? a character’s name in The Turner Diaries?)

I'd look very closely at those who passionately referenced MSNBC’s April 19th The McVeigh Tapes: those who ranted against MSNBC's commentary and/or those who relished new McVeigh quotes from the tapes.

I’d perhaps put some resources looking into the extreme fringe of the Tea Party, but I think the far-right hate sites would be more fruitful . . . (In which case the FBI should soon be onto him . . . or her!)

between the extreme right wingers you cite and the tea party movement, just as there has always been overlap between Christian identity types, the militia movement, the Klan, sovereign citizens, etc. The tea party movement is a veritable petri dish of rabid right wing ideology from which we don't know what will emerge.

Gun lockers are civilian items, not military issue. I think it shows that the bomber is the sort of person who goes to gun shows. Doesn't tell us much, I know.

But most of us (admittedly not "in the loop" of these matters) see bombing as beyond the pale for a high percentage of Tea Party Mad Hatters. The McVeigh parallels suggest National Alliance Neo-Nazis is somewhat more likely. But only, I grant you, "somewhat."

Gun locker! That's civilian? Great piece of information.

When the hate gets ratcheted up, you can count on the folks who are the most angry engaging in violence, particularly on the right. A lot of folks have made much of some things that probably are not all that significant: for example, where the vehicle was parked. If you've ever driven NYC, though, it seems reasonable to assume he parked in the first heavily trafficked spot he could find--I doubt he would want to spend a lot of time circling the block with a bomb in the vehicle. Similarly, he probably used a gun locker simply because he had one on hand: we may be looking for someone who just bought a new gun locker.

Gun locker, gun safe and gun cabinet are used synonymously by a lot of folks. Most of what you see commercially available are not surplus items, but ex-military and police types are apt to refer to any such box as a gun locker. The only thing I can deduce from the information that we have is that this would be a fairly small, lightweight model.

Yes I have an interest in Terrorism since oh... I had to write some protocols back in the day.

1.- This could be a probe... I explained this a few times, and if a probe well they've learned some good info out of it. No will not go into details.

2.- I personally suspect this is an amateur, angry with the Guv'mint, who put this together after watching the Myth-busters a few times. Suffice it to say that they never give full details... for a reason. There are several things we have learned so far that point to being a radical but not quite a middle eastern one.

3.- If a probe, it is following a few others... and it can lead to ... the crying wolf syndrome. That has it's own problems...

Anyhow, props for your analysis...

Oh and on a side info, the Left is invested in this being a Tea Bagger and the right is invested in this being a furiegner.

You're side info is also good, but the length of time in catching this guy has corrupted it. Conspiracy will now prevail.

but conspiracy was going to happen regardless. Sadly it is the American way.

Enjoy your day, nadinbrzezinski.

:hi:

I doubt this is a probe, though. Given the risks they took, why not mount an actual attack? Plus, this whole thing seems the work of someone fairly unsophisticated, too unsophisticated to think of doing a probe. I grant that they may be attempting to seem "stupid on purpose," but the incidence of actual stupidity is higher than that of cagey, fake stupidity. Plus, one of the "benefits" of planting a bomb is that it gives police little data than many other sorts of attacks. As it stands, with the failed bomb, they have a million data points, and this person will certainly be caught.

I think two out of the last three episodes of Mythbusters actually did feature propane tank myths.

You're almost certainly right about this being an amateur. They failed to keep it simple, unlike McVeigh. If I had to hazard a guess, I'd say this probably is a lone wolf.

I'm not actually invested in this being a teabagger: it's actually less scary if it is. Incidentally, Najibullah Zazi will be sentenced next month. Though he made mistakes aplenty, his plan seems much more sophisticated than whoever it was who attempted this.

"This bomb was the explosive equivalent of a misspelled sign."

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

You're killing me, man!

By the way, I agree with your analysis.

It was, lucky for us, the person was a dumb person. But someone who does that is dumb anyways, but also dumb in thinking, not just violent.

I think you make sense, and also a person that is impulsive, not a planning type. I would guess he has psychological issues also, the dumbness is at that level. Violence is dumb.

What can we tell:

1.) He seems rather collected, cool.

2.) He may have planned to change shirts (rather than it just being too warm) because he brought a bag so that he could put the shirt in.

3.) He seems to be wearing work books or heavy footwear.

4.) He seems agile, not stiff. Therefore, he may be in good shape, work out, be younger than supposed, or be a working man.

5.) He seems to know exactly what he is doing. He doesn't even touch the post (fingerprints).

6.) He seems in a moderate hurry (maybe NY pace though) and not in an undue rush.

7.) He appears to be alone (and male, of course)

By the way, some reports have come out that say this man might be the same man on the tourist's video that depicted a man running north on Broadway shortly after the firecrackers went off in teh SUV.

Of course he may not have anything to do with it.

The man on the video (who may have had nothing to do with the SUV) seems less chaotic and sophomoric than the bomb-maker.

If he was the one who did it, he seems calm and planned by contrast. Which might lead us to believe he is not a viable suspect.

Of course, he could be inept with the technical part of his plan(the SUV bomb) and decent with the human portion (the escape).

Was the guy in the video wearing gloves. If not then there would be fingerprints in car.

If he was wearing gloves, why take off t shirt and gloves at different places, assuming the shirt coming off was to change appearance, why not do it at once.

If he was smart enough to cover prints without gloves, then he would have been more of an issue then the system in the car he put together.

Oh well, try again next time.

this is pretty sloppy work for anyone wanting to do real damage. Whoever did this is a lot of things--knowledgeable, professional, and/or experienced isn't it.

This is work by a wannabe terrorist, or a diversionary tactic.

For obvious reasons.

That trying to pin a crime on a group of people before all the facts are in is pretty stupid???


I agree.

Wishing and hoping that a certain group is responsible, and trying to fix the facts around that wish.

Gun locker? Sounds like a teabagger to me!

The good news is that it shows that the Pakistani Taliban isn't that good. The bad news is that now we have to invade Pakistan.

You also should at least read the second to the last paragraph in the OP, wherein I note it's possible that this was the work of a Muslim militant, but if so it was probably the work of someone who was self-radicalized. Faisal Shahzad claims he was a lone wolf, though the Pakistani Taliban also seem to want to claim him. Given his recent trip, though, it would seem I was right and wrong about that: he probably was self radicalized, but then was trained in Pakistan. He's probably lying about being a lone wolf, but I cannot imagine why he would want to do that.

A little ironic to me that, even though I hate teabaggers, I have always loved tea. I drink the stuff by the gallon.

arrest made in Pakistan connected with this fool's failed attempt.

I'd guess that the lone-wolf lie was an attempt to protect an accomplice or multiple accomplices. That part isn't too hard to figure out. Doesn't seem to have worked out too well though.

Given that I've learned on DU that teabaggers are for the most part fat, white, inbred, middle-aged white racists from south of the Mason-Dixon line, it doesn't seem likely to me that Pakistanis would be welcome in their little circle. For that reason, I'm having a hard time wrapping my mind around your continuing suspicion that he still might be discovered to be a card-holding member of the teabagger club.

You hang on to that belief though, if you feel it empowers you in some way. I think it makes us on the left look silly to be screaming "teabagger!" without having all the facts at the same time the teabaggers are screaming "fureigner!", again without having all the facts.

But you cannot do the :sarcasm: thingy in the subject line. I wasn't insisting he was a teabagger in the OP: only that the stupidity of it seemed like it was a strong possibility.

He used a car he bought himself! Wow. If he's not a teabagger, he certainly meets the maximum IQ requirement.

What's the point of having internet access if you cannot anonymously and irresponsibly speculate? :shrug:

Would a teabagger blow up random people in an entertainment district, or would he vent his rage against the government? (a la McVeigh, or the Austin IRS plane suicide)

AQ and other radical religious extremists have targeted government and military locations before, but they are also into killing people merely for being citizens of a country they hate. (Bali bombings, Madrid train bombings, London tube bombings)

The largest Jewish community in the US, second only to Tel Aviv in the world.

I hope everyone sees this OP. Trying to pin this on a teabagger before we knew the facts of the case was an obvious mistake for you. I am getting a little tired of people framing facts or lack thereof to fit their agenda. Stop already.

"but if so, it was the work of someone self-radicalized, not someone who had been to Afghanistan or Pakistan for actual training. I very much doubt this was the work of an established militia: whatever you can say about those folks, they at least know how to make a bomb. This whole thing sounds jerry-rigged: if you were to go to the trouble of killing people for political reasons, wouldn't you at least test your detonator? So, however it was that this person was radicalized, it was probably fairly recently. It seems unlikely they have actual military experience, at least not in combat arms or explosives. Someone who had been politically radicalized for a long time would have had the time to devise a better device."

I did rather explicitly countenance the possibility it was a foreign terrorist. Let's see, wrong that it was a teabagger, right that it was someone recently radicalized, wrong that they hadn't been to Af-Pak for training (but right to assume that that would have been the pace such a person would be trained), right that he had no actual military experience.

I was wrong this time. It is, however, only a matter of time before right wing hate radio and the teabagger movement coughs up an Eric Robert Rudolph or Timothy McVeigh.