With current results, it's possible neither the Tories nor Labour will be able to form a coalition

WeDidIt

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Thu May-06-10 11:44 PM
Original message

With current results, it's possible neither the Tories nor Labour will be able to form a coalition

I'm wondering, what happens then?

The Alliance Party of Ireland, which won its first seat in Parliament tonight, might be the deciding factor.

It's that fucking close right now!

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WeDidIt

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Thu May-06-10 11:47 PM
Response to Original message

1. With the results right now, it looks like the Tories might take it with the Democratic Unionists.

Fuck.

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enlightenment

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Thu May-06-10 11:48 PM
Response to Original message

2. If it's that bad,

they can dissolve and do it over again . . . didn't that happen under Major (or did he manage to hold that one together?)

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rpannier

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Fri May-07-10 12:08 AM
Response to Original message

3. I think the 4th largest will be the Scottish National Party

and then maybe the Plaid Cymru.
The Scottish Nationals hate the Tories and would rather redo the whole election
They may try to get a coalition with the Lib Dems.
Clegg talked about that possibility last week
The cost would be election reform
But considering how skewed the last election was in Labour's favor they may go for it

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villager

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Fri May-07-10 12:18 AM
Response to Reply #3

4. What kind of election reform are they after?

Here in the U.S., I'd just be happy with instant run-off, and proportional representation!

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rpannier

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Fri May-07-10 12:28 AM
Response to Reply #4

7. Proportional Representation

They keep getting 20-25% of the vote and 10% of the seats

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villager

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Fri May-07-10 12:34 AM
Response to Reply #7

9. kind of how it works with small red states having two senators each?

:shrug:

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WeDidIt

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Fri May-07-10 12:22 AM
Response to Reply #3

5. But when you add Tories with Democratic Unionists, they have 51% of the current seats

Edited on Fri May-07-10 12:22 AM by WeDidIt

And Bob's your uncle if the current trend holds.

Oh, and that 51% of the seats is with 37.3% of the vote compared to Labour and the Democratic Liberals taking 51% of the vote.

In other words, it looks like a majority Labour and the Dem Libs will have insured a minority or rightists were able to take control of the UK government.

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rpannier

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Fri May-07-10 12:27 AM
Response to Reply #5

6. But it doesn't appear that they will clear the 326 plateau

If they don't then he will have to shop elsewhere

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WeDidIt

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Fri May-07-10 12:31 AM
Response to Reply #6

8. If the current trend holds, the Tories plus the Democratic Unionists combined will have 328 seats

Edited on Fri May-07-10 12:32 AM by WeDidIt

There's your coalition.

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rpannier

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Fri May-07-10 12:42 AM
Response to Reply #8

10. Looking at what's left and picking thru prior elections

The Democratic Unionists should be done for the night (8)
The Ulster Conservatives lost their one seat
So he needs 318 (max)
I don't know what Party is the others 1 seat
He could probably also get the one seat held by the Alliance
Sinn Fein, Scottish, Plaid Cymru, etc are probably dead in the water as coalition partners

I do think if he needs them, the Liberal Dems will form a coalition with the Tories

So it probably doesn't matter
He has his coalition partners

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WeDidIt

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Fri May-07-10 12:43 AM
Response to Reply #6

11. One other thing, it's so close it could fall within the Sinn Fein margin

and Sinn Fein will never take the oath of fealty to the Queen, so there will be no Sinn Fein in any coalaition.

That's four seats right now, and it's so close now that four seats could be the entire difference.

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