David Kotok: The Gulf Oil Spill Has Gone From Bad To Worse, With Damages Into The Tens Of Billions

Within days we will have reached the second level of damages in the Gulf of Mexico. Under our “worse” scenario the total will be in the many tens of billions before this is all over. There are now early reports of “tar balls” washing up on beaches. Damage is now witnessed in Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi. NOAA has expanded the no-fishing zone to about “4.5 percent of Gulf of Mexico federal waters.” The original closure boundaries, which took effect Sunday, May 2, encompassed “less than three percent.”

Readers please note that this event is still mostly confined to United States “federal waters,” which are under NOAA jurisdiction. International claims are a more complex financial liability for BP and its partners.

So far, BP has offered US-based fishermen a one-month-pay settlement package. This is being routinely rejected, according to the professional fishermen we have been able to reach. If this spillage continues, as we project under our second and “worse” scenario, and IF it can be limited to that scenario and doesn’t worsen to “ugliest,” the ultimate loss of income to fisherman will continue over many, many months or even years.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/david-kotok-the-gulf-oil-spill-has-gone-from-bad-to-worse-with-damages-into-the-tens-of-billions-of-dollars-2010-5#ixzz0nYM5znXk

said there was no need to worry.
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BLITZER: How worried should the folks in Mississippi be right now about the beautiful coastline along the Gulf of Mexico?

BARBOUR: Well, we need to be prepared. My view of this is when you pray for the best, prepare for the worst. But a lot of people are assuming that this is going to be catastrophic, and that is not a safe assumption.

Right now, there's no oil within 50 miles of the Mississippi. Eighty percent of the oil slick, as it's called and appropriately -- 80 percent is literally just sheen or film right on top of -- on top of the water. That is not toxic. It's not particularly damaging.

I mean, we don't want it to come ashore in Mississippi, but it's manageable. It's a manageable problem. Our people on the coast are getting ready.

And I do think a lot of people in the country are being led to believe that this is already some gigantic catastrophe. Well, that's not the case and we're going it try to keep it from ever being the case.

BLITZER: I think what some of those who are really worried hear most, if it isn't contained within the next, you know, few weeks, if it goes on two or three months, it will be a much worse problem for the Gulf of Mexico, for the folks in Louisiana and Mississippi, Alabama and Florida, than the Exxon Valdez spill was in Alaska.

BARBOUR: Well, people say that. And that is certainly a possibility. If the well were to break back open and be flowing and at maximum potential, if it did that for 90 days -- yes, then it could be a terrible catastrophe. That hasn't happened yet, may not happen.

You mentioned the containment dome. There's been great work done in the last 72 hours putting dispersant into the oil right above the wellhead, and it looks like that is breaking up the oil and greatly reducing what comes to the surface.

Look, we're not happy with what's going on by a long shot. But we haven't come to the conclusion that this is a have-to-be catastrophe because it doesn't have to be.
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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/05/03/gov_haley_barbour_on_the_bp_oil_spill_105438.html