Why Sestak might really pull it off

Why Sestak might really pull it off
Greg Sargent


Tomorrow, a third poll will come out finding Joe Sestak is leading Arlen Specter in the Pennsylvania Dem primary. The poll, from Franklin & Marshall College, will mirror others showing Sestak ahead by around five points, the poll's director confirms to me.

Anything can happen between now and next Tuesday. But Sestak might really pull it off.

Terry Madonna, the director of the Franklin & Marshall poll, just gave me an interesting overview of the race, explaining in a nutshell why Sestak could prevail, though he cautioned that a Specter win is still a very real possibility.

Madonna's take: Dem primary voters haven't voted for Specter for decades. Why would they start now?

Madonna pointed out that for most of the race, a huge bloc of Dem primary voters, perhaps as high as 40%, have been undecided. They are only focusing on the race just now, with both campaigns airing out their messages on TV.

"If they hadn't agreed to vote for Specter after 29 years, why are they going to change in a month?" Madonna asks, in a reference to Specter's long career as a Republican in the Senate.

more...

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/plum-line/2010/05/why_sestak_might_really_pull_i.html#more

Silly me.:silly:

:)

I didn't even 'get' that post until I saw your reply. :)

good question.

as a trade for a few votes.

The turn out is not going to be what Sestak had hoped for- which was just the stauch more progessive Dems. Rendell, Mayor Nutter, and the entire Democratic party establishment along with all the unions, fire fighters and teacher's unions are all going to be pushing to get out the supporters for Specter. Most of the PA populatiion is older-not younger and they like and respect Specter.

and that is highly motivating for some of the anti-establishment Dems.

We'll see.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/05/sestakular.html

(anyone, feel free to make an op out of it ..I'm kinda beat ...)

A serious question. Specter could win Dem and Republican votes

Tommey has already forfeited his best card, when he denounced Specter's smear of Sestak's honorable 31-year Navy career. (Maybe because as some pundits are now pointing out, that smear backfired on Specter in multiple ways, and Toomey knew better than to try it anyway, so he panders to vets by calling out Specter on it.)

Latest RCP head to head GE matchups show Sestak 40 Toomey 42, Specter 38 to Toomey 50. Specter has worse favorable/unfavorable and much lower undecided (EVERYONE knows who he is and has made up his mind).

I think most will agree that based on this data, Sestak appears to be the better GE candidate. I thought that previously just from what I know about Sestak and how he campaigns - but I don't expect others to take my word as gospel, I can only give a testimonial.

chance at best for Specter, and that was before the polling began for what will be published tomorrow.

I think Joe's going to take it.

:hi:

though the Prez campaigned for Specter recently.

Evening, saltpoint! :hi:

Arlen can't be dismissed. He's got that decades-old Rolodex on his desk and it cuts across party lines.

But still. Joe's smokin' hot and streaking for that finish line!

between now and the election.

Also I think only Biden has been here recently. That was in Scranton and drew a sparse crowd, I heard.

And note the latest ad 'featuring' Obama uses 2009 footage. He couldn't be bothered to make a current endorsement. :)

current. Thanks for the clarification.

Specter's support is only mediocre and that is entirely wrong.

On the other hand, Obama has not endorsed Sestak or retracted his support of Obama. So your first statement is true also. But that was their deal and Obama is just keeping his side of the bargain.

In Philly, but to be honest, I think it might be better for Specter if he did not campaign here directly.

still might for all I know.

At the same time, his political advisors are going to be discussing the Sestak surge with the president. He can't be seen rolling into Philadelphia to rally Keystone Dems for a man his own advisors tell him is losing the primary.

It's going to be a wild week in Pennsylvania politics. In many ways, you Pennsylvanians are a lucky bunch.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/plum-line/2010/05/happy_hour_roundup_5.html

it was also tweeted by someone from Politico. Link is over in the PA forum.

volunteers.

I think the undecideds, as usual, hold the power cards here.

The trend is breaking among undecideds for Joe Sestak.

Philadelphia has Danaher and is run by the Rendell cabal.

DelCo has Danaher and is run by Republicans.

Okay I don't really believe that will happen but it IS Philadelphia ... not quite Chicago, but that's not for lack of effort on Rendell's part.

I'm not really into conspiracy theories but let's say if I wanted to risk it and had some support, I have a pretty good idea, in theory, how an election could be fixed in DelCo, and I'll bet dollars to doughnuts Philly is worse. I'm also not into posting 'how to build a nuclear bomb' on the internet either so I'm not going into what my actual concerns on. I just hope and pray that certain people in certain positions are NOT as corrupt as they might be. (I was an election inspector and as part of resistance against paperless voting, studied these machines and the process in some detail. I also have experience as a process engineer. What I learned about our voting system is scary.)

If the polls are close no one can blame it on the machines whichever way it goes. But I think Sestak would need a 10-point lead to be sure of overcoming hijinks (of all sorts, not just the machines). I don't know if he can get there. But we'll see.