Global Warming: A localized pause and then the end of our civilization

We're filling the Gulf with oil, insanely spending a trillion a year on the military and fighting criminal wars, transferring wealth to the rich as fast as they can loot, letting a billion people go hungry every day because it's just too much trouble to care, making half-hearted attempts to deal with global warming, and at some point, one can't help but think we are really going to be sorry for what we are and are not doing at this particular point in history. That happy ending nonviolent revolution where the People take back the world from the corporations and their government and media courtiers doesn't seem very likely these days.

http://www.ianwelsh.net/global-warming-a-localized-pause-and-then-the-end-of-our-civilization/#comments

Global Warming: A localized pause and then the end of our civilization

Let’s talk a bit more about global warming and climate change. The majority of the American population now thinks that global warming probably doesn’t exist. Part of that is the huge amount of money which has been spent on propaganda, but part of it is that the only continent which is not experiencing increased temperatures right now—is North America. If you want to be a climate change denialist, America is a great place to live.

It is also true that the speed of global warming has slowed down. This is primarily due to two factors:

1) The sunspot cycle. Solar radiation is currently at its lowest level in some time. Less heat equals, well, less heat.

2) The icecap and glacial dump. The polar icepack being dumped into the oceans has had a cooling effect.

The sunspot cycle can change pretty much any time it wants. Probably we’ve got a decade or so at lower heat levels, but that’s not a sure thing. As for the icecap and glacier dump: well, once the ice is gone, it’s gone.

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Now, as for fixing it—there are two main problems. The first is the will to do something. While there may be technical solutions which would reduce the amount of carbon we are dumping into the atmosphere, there is no will to deploy them on a wide enough scale to matter. This is as true in China as it in the US, and without China and the developing world coming on board, what the US does, assuming it does anything, will not be sufficient (and the US will not do anything, the propaganda campaign claiming there is no Global Warming has been successful.)

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If world population is only reduced by a billion, I will be amazed. I also expect some serious wars. Our civilization will not go quietly into that long long night.

For a few decades.

China is rapidly building massive amounts of renewable energy. Far more than the United States.

Obama already passed the CAFE and electric car mandates needed to reduce oil consumption. The stimulus bill took huge steps in efficiency and renewables. The EPA is moving forward with regulating CO2 and hopefully that isn't undone by the climate bill. We have a long way to go but major progress has happened since Obama took office.

is being made. The total amount of carbon being dumped each year is increasing, not declining. At Copenhagen last year, China, India and the U.S turned their backs on the issue. All are still building coal firede generating plants. Your loyalty to the President is admirable, but misguided. What change is occuring is marginal, and is in no way commensurate with the scale of the problem. You really ought master the basic fscts before you post. In any event, as the OP suggests, it's probably already too late.

The new CAFE standards are significant. What else do you think a treaty would have done to reduce our consumption of oil? Obama is taking the necessary steps (without a treaty) to improve mileage and switch to electric cars.

Perhaps your cynicism is blinding you to what's being done. The most CO2 reduction will come from energy efficiency efforts. The stimulus bill made large investments that are absolutely meaningful. Clean energy and efficiency were the largest areas of spending in the stimulus bill (over $80 billion). Yes, I know that no one is writing exciting, inflammatory articles attacking Obama about the topic, but it's intellectually dishonest to dismiss the importance of what was done.

And EPA regulation of CO2 may be MORE effective than a cap and trade system. So no, I'm not going to underplay the significance of EPA moving forward with that just to score points against Obama.

Reminding people that China is building coal plants is a line normally used by the coal industry to make a coal-free future sound impossible. You really ought to learn what's actually happening in China, which is a much faster shift to renewables than what we're seeing here. They are the world's leader in constructing clean energy.

The plain truth is that Obama did more to stop global warming in his first 6 months than Clinton and Carter did in 12 years combined.

as to the basic facts surrounding global warming. Reading a little history also wouldn't hurt. The Obama administration has done far less than Carter did. Calling me a shill for the coal companies is a contemptible ad hominem.

I stated specifics that you're ignoring. New CAFE standards, regulation of major sources of CO2, major efficiency investments, ending mountaintop removal coal mining. These are the nuts and bolts of what needs to happen. Your ignorance of the issue and dislike of Obama are leading you to make unsupported claims.

Accusing me of calling you a shill is a disingenuous distraction. I'm simply pointing out that you shouldn't be so quick to believe and repeat the claims of the coal industry. I don't think you're a shill. I think your cynicism makes you an easy target for being duped by any negative claim.

there's no reason for you to accept my arguments. I don't mean to be rude. You seem intelligent and well intentioned, but I don't think you understand either the scale of the problem or where we are in our timeline to disaster. I'm not really a cynic, but I am profoundly skeptical of your claim that significant efforts at amelioration are underway. Tightening CAFE standards and offering modest subsidies for "green" tech project is like pointing a garden hose at a forest fire. As long as we're still talking about clean coal and offshore drilling, we aren't seriously addressing the problem.

If we had listened to Jimmy Carter we might not be in the fix we're in today. Your criticism of the Clinton administration is right on point. Clinton and Gore talked a lot and did very little. There is still hope that the worst case can be averted, but that hope is slim and dwindling. Strong measures would need to be undertaken immediately, and that just is not happening, either here or abroad. A temperature rise of 2 degrees centigrade is widely believed to be inevitable. Many think that's estimate is too low. Unless we stop adding greenhouse gases immediately, the rise will be greater.

This is known as the Keeling Curve. They've been taking these measurements since about 1950.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/#mlo



http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/04/100430081731.htm



Here's the World Meteorologicl organization report for 2009

http://www.whrc.org/resources/online_publications/warming_earth/scientific_evidence.htm

Wikipedia has an excellent summary of the IPCC report for 2007.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report

we will be doing more and more with less and less

the tipping point has tipped long ago

all we can do now is watch and try to personally survive

Outside of global warming. Frankly, the earth cannot support a population this large. Something will give.

I mean Canada has seen massive changes, like earlier springs... so has Mexico... and wait, so has San Diego, my local area. I guess the border did move North.

If you are going to make such a statement, make sure the truth is with you.