Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

How low can the euro go? Very.

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion (1/22-2007 thru 12/14/2010) Donate to DU
 
Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-18-10 02:55 PM
Original message
How low can the euro go? Very.
Briefly slumping to a four-year low against the dollar yesterday, the euro has gained the dubious distinction of being the worst-performing major currency this year. And more pain could be on the way, despite the $1 trillion aid package that bought the European Union's financial impresarios enough time to force some tough love on Greece and other debt-tipsy members.

Although the currency regained a bit of strength today, don't expect it to find momentum anytime soon. In fact, it could still have a ways to fall.

Concern over the eurozone's growth and its lingering fiscal morass has led several analysts to call for the euro, currently valued at about $1.24, to reach dollar parity before it stages any sort of rebound. In making his own call for parity, Christopher Wood, chief equity strategist at CLSA Asia Pacific Markets, said that the euro will become "fundamentally weak currency."

Part of the problem, says BNP Paribas, which called for dollar-euro parity by 2011, is that Europe will probably be forced to switch from using fiscal tools to monetary instruments in its attempt to heal the system. That would mean printing money, which, BNP Paribas notes, would send "the euro massively lower."


http://money.cnn.com/2010/05/18/news/international/euro_low.fortune/

The Euro slipped another 2 cents from the time this article was written. Currently $1.2204 as of time I am posting.
The Euro is unwinding in a spectacular way. Funny just 6 months ago some people were making the dubious claim that Euro would replace dollar as reserve currency of the world.

:rofl:

Dollar is what it is. Americans may not be the best savers but the dollar has a 200 year history of no defaults and has spent the majority of 20th century without crippling deflation or run away inflation.

Nothing is going to replace dollar as worlds reserve currency anytime soon.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
sinkingfeeling Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-18-10 02:56 PM
Response to Original message
1. If the Euro reaches dollar parity, I just might retire at 62!!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Duer 157099 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-18-10 02:57 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. 'splain please? n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
sinkingfeeling Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-18-10 03:03 PM
Response to Reply #1
7. Want to retire in Europe. If I don't need as much from SS plus pension plus 401K because of
differences between Euro and dollar, then I can retire earlier. If it's $1.33 to 1 Euro, then if you have $3000 a month for retirement, you really only have 2000 Euros. If it's $1=1 Euro, I'll be in Ireland sooner!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Duer 157099 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-18-10 03:06 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. Gotcha. You lucky bastard, retiring to Europe
Can I come?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
WinkyDink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-18-10 06:34 PM
Original message
You must be one o'them arty types.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Duer 157099 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-18-10 02:57 PM
Response to Original message
2. If it goes below parity with the dollar, I would consider being a buyer n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-18-10 02:59 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. I would buy Euro if they developed a method/plan to expell non-compliant nations from the EuroZone
Not the EU but from the group that uses the single currency.

Originally the goal was 12 nations and the first 12 were all powerful economies with good fiscal policy, manageable debts, and developed monetary policies. Then this pan-Europa euphoria hit and the Euro Zone expanded from 12 to 26 members (causing UK to balk in changing their currency - good for them).
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Cali_Democrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-18-10 06:11 PM
Response to Reply #2
25. Don't buy the Euro even if (when) it reaches parity
Edited on Tue May-18-10 06:11 PM by Cali_Democrat
That would be like trying to catch a falling knife.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Duer 157099 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-18-10 06:25 PM
Response to Reply #25
26. I don't know. I have always regretted not buying some when it first came out
When it was below the USD. I had thought about it and then instead just watched it go up and up and up.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
FLPanhandle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-18-10 03:00 PM
Response to Original message
5. I'll have to plan a trip to Spain and Italy if that happens.
Cool.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-18-10 03:03 PM
Response to Reply #5
8. Yeah that would be a bargin. 60% off.
Bad news is it makes EU imports to US cheaper undercutting American companies.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
FLPanhandle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-18-10 03:08 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. Yes, and my vacation money would not be spent in the US.
So, maybe I'll go to Colorado afterall.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
WinkyDink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-18-10 06:35 PM
Response to Reply #5
29. Not to mention the French Riviera in the middle!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
maxsolomon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-18-10 03:03 PM
Response to Original message
6. i need it to keep going down if i'm ever going to europe again
(if i ever get back to 100% salary again).

yurip is $$$$$$$$$$.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Ruby the Liberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-18-10 03:08 PM
Response to Original message
11. Germany stopping naked shorts today is going to have quite the effect overnight.
They are putting fear in the market and the currency.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-18-10 03:11 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. Clarification Germany isn't stopping just "naked" short selling.
Edited on Tue May-18-10 03:36 PM by Statistical
Germany is banning ALL short selling in "critical" financials both stocks and equities.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Ruby the Liberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-18-10 03:15 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. Yikes! I hadn't heard that part. They aren't thinking straight.
Edited on Tue May-18-10 03:19 PM by Ruby the Liberal
JPYEUR will look interesting tonight.

Any bets on when USDEUR hits parity?

Edit to add the list of financial shorts banned: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385x466155

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-18-10 03:23 PM
Response to Reply #13
19. The massive over reaction makes me think German regulators know something.
Edited on Tue May-18-10 04:00 PM by Statistical
Banning short selling is going to scare living crap out of the market and provide a catalyst for massive move downward.

Germany regulators aren't stupid they know this. So why would you ban short selling even if you know doing so will tank the affected stocks....... there is something that will tank it even more if you don't.

Ok I'll put my tinfoil hat on :tinfoilhat: but I think some bad news about German banks is about to hit.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Ruby the Liberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-18-10 03:49 PM
Response to Reply #19
20. That is certainly the signal they are sending with this move.
That there is a hidden timebomb about to detonate.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-18-10 06:41 PM
Response to Reply #20
30. There has to be
Something was triggered by the Greece situation and the bailout and the German banks were about to get their asses kicked over it is my guess.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
flyarm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-18-10 05:12 PM
Response to Reply #13
22. I hope by Thursday..I leave for Paris then!! ...shopping would be so much more fun!! and
Edited on Tue May-18-10 05:14 PM by flyarm
I would get in less trouble by the hubby, ( if you know what I mean girls ).....lol!!

Chanel , Gucci..here I come!!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
uponit7771 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-18-10 03:18 PM
Response to Reply #12
15. Whoa!!!....
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-18-10 06:34 PM
Response to Reply #12
28. They are fucked
Edited on Tue May-18-10 06:35 PM by AllentownJake
The only reason to do that is if you are completely fucked.

Forget the Euro, Marks will be back soon.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
county worker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-18-10 03:16 PM
Response to Original message
14. It's great for buying things from Europe on Ebay. When it goes below the dollar look out!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
CTyankee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-18-10 04:54 PM
Response to Reply #14
21. I'm going to Florence, Italy in September.
Should I start budgeting LESS for my trip than before? Should I think about buying some nice leather stuff for my family for xmas while I'm there?

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-18-10 07:25 PM
Response to Reply #21
31. A dollar buys 0.82Euros today. Last november it was only 0.6E
Edited on Tue May-18-10 07:27 PM by Statistical
I wouldn't reduce your budget but you just may be pleasantly surprised that your dollars go further. You might even come home spending less than you planned.

No matter what your buying power will be higher compared to last year it is just a matter of how much higher IMHO

http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=0&chdd=1&chds=0&chdv=1&chvs=Linear&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1274228564112&chddm=357679&q=CURRENCY:USDEUR&ntsp=0

Last November a dollar would only have bought you 0.6 Euros.
Today the same dollar buys you 0.82E.

By September will it be higher or lower than 0.82E? Who knows. One dollar could buy your 1E (parity). Maybe it will just hang around 0.8E range.

Still no matter what your dollars will go further than someone taking the same trip last year. :) Have fun.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
CTyankee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-18-10 07:30 PM
Response to Reply #31
32. Oh, I intend to. I am not really going for shopping. I am going for art.
It is the cost of lodging while I'm there that will be the sticking point really. And maybe the cost of eating in restaurants.

I don't shop that much abroad, but I do get some good stuff. I like to buy original art that is interesting, by local artists. I got a great leather wallet in Verona in 2008 which I love. Some stuff is good...

Just hope my family doesn't give me a "shopping list"....
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
nealmhughes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-18-10 03:20 PM
Response to Original message
16. I am about to buy. Forget London, I shall go to Dublin instead and then France.
I made a bundle when the pound dropped to $1.08 in the 80s and I lived in Scotland half the year and was paid in dollars.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-18-10 03:20 PM
Response to Original message
17. Time to plan a European vacation.
The past exchange rates have made me feel broke when in Europe.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
greencharlie Donating Member (827 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-18-10 03:21 PM
Response to Original message
18. when I was in Europe in 2000...
the Euro was worth about 90 cents...
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
flyarm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-18-10 05:19 PM
Response to Reply #18
23. yep !!! and when Clinton was pres our dollar was very strong!!
I was an International Flight attendant for 33 years..the Clinton years were the best for our dollar ..the foreign stores actually catered to us..since Bush we have only gotten pity from foreign stores and restaurants and they tell us how much things start at in Euro when we step into the store..so we have time to turn around and walk out!!..with tears in our eyes!! lol
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Change Happens Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-18-10 05:56 PM
Response to Original message
24. Dollar is king, looks like it will stay that way...Euro can get to $.75-$.80 by the end of the year.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-18-10 06:32 PM
Response to Original message
27. I will admit I got this way wrong at the beginning of the year
Edited on Tue May-18-10 06:32 PM by AllentownJake
I totally forgot to include in my assesment of currency strength the fact the EU was in worse shape than we were for debt to GDP ratio.

The Germans will be printing marks by 2012, that I'm pretty sure of.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
tammywammy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-18-10 07:34 PM
Response to Original message
33. Where's that poster that was always talking about buying gold and euros?
Get out of the dollar, blah blah blah. I guess she must not be an active poster anymore.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Mon May 06th 2024, 12:31 PM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion (1/22-2007 thru 12/14/2010) Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC