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Warren Stupidity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-07-10 10:28 PM
Original message
They are f'ing clueless.
"The cap on the blown-out well in the Gulf is capturing a half-million gallons a day, or anywhere from one-third to three-quarters of the oil spewing from the bottom of the sea."

"Allen said the containment cap that was installed late last week is now collecting about 460,000 gallons of oil a day out of the approximately 600,000 to 1.2 million gallons believed to be spewing from the well a mile underwater."

How the fuck, over all this time, can they still not even know how much fucking oil is spewing out of the fucking hole?


http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gIXWYBTpLtSayJtg41LKXpxSxVPAD9G6QTMG2
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gratuitous Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-07-10 10:37 PM
Response to Original message
1. They don't know how much because . . .
Knowing how much makes it easier to set the amount of damages. I think they're on the hook for $4,300 per barrel for every barrel that leaks out. So if nobody knows (and you damn betcha they know and count every drop that comes out of a properly functioning well), then you have to estimate, and the estimate will almost certainly be low, especially since BP has been low-balling the amount for seven weeks.

Also, notice how, when we're talking about how much is supposedly being captured, BP lurves to talk about the number of gallons (big number), but when we're talking about how much is spewing, BP would prefer to measure it in the much larger barrel (so the number is smaller)? And with a society as mathematically illiterate as ours is, I'd bet that this is no coincidence.
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Electric Monk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-08-10 03:06 AM
Response to Reply #1
18. deliberate bafflegab from BP
of course
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NYC_SKP Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-07-10 10:40 PM
Response to Original message
2. Well, for starters, it's under a column of freezing sea water a mile deep.
There isn't a gauge on the BOP, and only estimates are possible.

And there are multiple approaches to developing estimates.

Of course there are BP estimates, and there are assorted scientists' estimates, and government agency's estimates.

Gibbs had this to say during a June 1 briefing:

Q Right, but then it took until Sunday, day 41, for Carol Browner to say, you know what, BP’s information is not accurate. Why did it take so long?

MR. GIBBS: No, no, no, no, let’s not — I think you’re confusing about eight issues into one. Let’s understand — no, the flow rate is an important aspect to talk about, and let’s discuss it because I’m not sure we’ve briefed since the flow rate group talked about this.

The initial estimates that were done used overhead photography to measure the amount of oil on the surface, right? We know that through the use of subsea dispersants it’s likely that not everything is going to the top, right? So — and even with the picture that many of you guys are using on television, it’s a — it’s not sufficiently of the dimension to fully measure the flow, right?

We’ve never been dependent upon BP for information about the flow. In fact, I think you’ve heard many in the administration discuss accurately that — because fines for BP will largely be determined by the amount of pollution emitted, that they may not altogether have the same transparent public interest that we do in ensuring the public knows exactly — to the best of our scientific ability — what’s coming from the well.

http://blog.taragana.com/politics/2010/06/01/press-briefing-by-press-secretary-robert-gibbs-6110-40628/


It's complicated, there may be a conspiracy or two in there, but no matter who tries to measure it, it's only going to be an educated guess.

In fact, we will never know because it cannot be known with the kind of accuracy we would like.

:patriot:
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Warren Stupidity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-07-10 10:47 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. So, you agree, they are fucking clueless.
They are off drilling holes one mile down with no better estimate of what might come pouring out than " 600,000 to 1.2 gallons/day", and that with the benefit of close observation of the flow from one specific hole for weeks?
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HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-07-10 10:58 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. Yes, it is not possible to exactly calculate the flow rate
There are too many variables.

And to compound the issue, cutting the riser pipe increased the flow an unknown amount before they put the cap on. Nobody can know what the flow is until they are capturing it all, then the estimate will be rather precise :D
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NYC_SKP Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-07-10 11:03 PM
Response to Reply #5
9. If and when they manage to capture all of what's coming out....
Then we'll know.

We can pretty safely assume that what's coming out on the day they're collecting every drop will be pretty near what is coming out today, I would think.

Food for thought with respect to how hard they're trying.

I think they're trying, but they're inventing as they go, not a good way to do it.
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HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-07-10 11:14 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. Clearly there was no plan in place for this type of blowout
Edited on Mon Jun-07-10 11:15 PM by HughMoran
...where the people putting the fire out sink the rig causing the pipe to crumple up on the seafloor. What a cacophony of failures this was! I can almost see how an event like this was not well planned for. Did you hear that they previously described the sunken rig as "unsinkable"?
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NYC_SKP Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-07-10 11:19 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. "Pride goeth before the fall"
arrogant bastards.

:mad:
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HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-07-10 11:34 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. It really comes down to regulations and inspections
All companies will cut corners if given the chance. One reason I'm not madder at BP is I am 100% sure that any and every other company working in the Gulf cuts corners in exactly the same way.
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Scuba Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-08-10 03:03 AM
Response to Reply #10
17. Sinking the rig was a big success. It hid much of the evidence.
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HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-08-10 07:32 AM
Response to Reply #17
20. It also cost BP what? 5-10 billion dollars?
What evidence are you talking about? What would be the benefit of 'hiding evidence' of a disaster that could have been avoided had the rig not sunk? I'll assume you were just being silly.
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NYC_SKP Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-07-10 11:00 PM
Response to Reply #3
7. Oh yeah, clueless. They are inventing the solutions on the fly that should have taken...
...years to develop and test long before they were allowed to drill at these depths.

They're on Cap #4 with Cap #5 on deck, trying different valves and ports and strategies in each design.

It's a clusterfuck.

I'd say "clueless" compared to where they should be, not that they don't have qualified engineers on this.

But fuck, this should have been worked out before any wells were sunk.

:mad:
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Lorien Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-07-10 11:38 PM
Response to Reply #3
13. They are willfully clueless. Cameron offered a team that is used to operating at far greater
depths to give them an accurate estimate, but naturally BP turned him down. They don't want us to know the actual number for obvious reasons.
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MattBaggins Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-08-10 12:01 AM
Response to Reply #2
15. I am no petroleum engineer of course;
but why the fuck is there no gauges and sensor equipment on a blow out preventer?
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HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-08-10 12:16 AM
Response to Reply #15
16. There's lots of pressure gauges that I've seen
Measuring the flow of a mixture of oil and gas is difficult at best - not sure how the bop would do this.
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Feron Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-07-10 10:55 PM
Response to Original message
4. The best way to find out is through containment...
otherwise it's just a guess educated or otherwise.

From the latest numbers this afternoon, it looks like the Enterprise is processing at capacity which is 15k bbl/day.

This weekend the Q4000 ship should come online and that will suck up another 5k bbl/day.

There is also another ship en route that supposedly has a higher processing capability than the Enterprise.

I don't think that all of the oil will be siphoned up, but we will most definitely have a better picture of how much is spewing in the coming weeks.



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HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-07-10 11:00 PM
Response to Reply #4
8. Q4000 can only process 5k bpd?
That's a shame since those 2 3" lines should be able to flow 10 - 15k bpd. Where did you hear this limit for the Q4000?
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spanone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-07-10 10:59 PM
Response to Original message
6. it's all about public relations now, they know it won't stop till august, if then
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me b zola Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-07-10 11:55 PM
Response to Original message
14. They're not clueless, they are criminal. n/t
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Greyhound Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-08-10 03:16 AM
Response to Reply #14
19. Thank you.
A voice of reality...


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