MarketWatch: Five reasons the employment numbers are worse than they seem

By Brett Arends, WSJ.com and MarketWatch


BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- The news on jobs isn't as bad as it seemed on Friday.

It's worse.

President Obama and Treasury Secretary Geithner were trying to putting on a happy face, but the markets weren't buying. They have tumbled worldwide since the latest payroll data.

But instead of overreacting, the markets may only just be waking up to the real bad news.

1. Look out ahead.

We already know that when you strip out the short-term Census jobs, May's jobs growth was a pitiful 41,000. But what people haven't realized is that the leading indicators for June are even worse. TrimTabs Investment Research Inc. tracks the real-time jobs picture by monitoring income tax deposits at the Treasury. And these have suddenly started falling. Based on the latest data, the firm predicts the economy will actually lose up to 200,000 jobs, net, in June. "The big news is that we have a job loss of about 200,000 coming in June," says Trim Tabs' Madeline Schnapp, "and the market isn't ready for it."

It's not just the stock market. You can bet that the administration -- and the country -- isn't ready either. Remember, we need to create about 100,000 just to keep up with population growth.

2. One and a half million people have 'disappeared'?

The government says the unemployment rate "edged down" to 9.7% -- keeping it below the politically sensitive 10% level.

But that's only because about one and a half million people have just, miraculously "disappeared" from the official labor force.

A million and a half people disappearing? It sounds like a crazy conspiracy theory. But there it is, buried in the fine print of the government's own data.

From May 2009 to May 2010, the U.S. "civilian non-institutional population" of prime working age -- 20 to 64 -- expanded by one and a half million, 180.5 million to 182 million.

Yet over the same period the official tally of the labor force over age 20 held steady at just 148 million.

What happened to those extra people? ..............(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-ways-the-jobs-numbers-are-worse-than-bad-2010-06-08

so that people can survive. Oh and that expanded number looking for work....they are back out there fighting for each and every job again.

The truth is this administration is telling boldface lies just like the crazy roller coaster years of the unelected bushes. That has NOT changed. I've read statistical analysis that have the unemployment rate (U3) as high as 20% and the unofficial unemployment rate (U6) as high as 27%.

We all know there is a 2nd economic plunge coming because we failed to take the necessary steps to re-regulate, prosecute, create a job corp for direct hiring by the federal government, prevent state and local government jobs from disappearing, re-instate the necessary taxes on the uber rich, re-instate tariffs and eliminate tax write offs for shipping jobs to other countries, re-invigorate manufacturing and failed to take the 1st crash seriously.

Now, we are going to have a 2nd crash. It's as if we reelected Herbert Hoover instead of electing FDR.

Clinton too. Unemployment stats have been manipulated for a good long while now.

the beltway bubble crowd is in for a rude shock

busting unions and sending the jobs out of the country...AND don't forget the teachers!!

until they do, I dont see any change occuring.