Florida will wind up leading to smoke filled rooms in Denver.

By moving their primary date to January 29th, (Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and then South Carolina preceding it) Florida now becomes the must-win state going into mega-Tuesday a week later on February 5th. It is impssible to say who would win the Florida primary at this point on the democratic side, but you would have to think Guliani has a leg up on the GOP side with so many new york republiucan transplants.


The calculus is different on the Democratic side. But if no one wins three out of the first four contests it is difficult to see how Florida coule be a momentum builder going into mega Tuesday.

Some things to keep in mind: 30 primaries and caucuses by February 6th. That means everybody name stays on all those ballots at no additional cost to their campaigns. That means there will really be no winnowing of the choices in the first 30 contests

If Biden, Kucinich, Dodd, Gravel each Garner 2% and the big three have a mortal lock on 20% each and Richardson a Mortal lock on 10%. that means only 25% is up for grabs in any of the first five contests. So You have to suspect there will be no presumptive going into mega-Tuesday and perhaps no preumptive on 2/6.


That would likely mean big reassesment happens on the 6th but if there is no clear leaders (seems likely to me. The top 4 slug it out until the convention with no one having a majority of the delegates.

And that means an ugly brokered convention.

On the other hand, if someone gets over 35% in Florida. That will be your nominee.

Jeb's name recognition means he would not have to spend a fraction to get his message out compared to the other Repub Candidates, who will have torn each other apart by then.

An unhappy nightmare to contemplate.

Hillary Clinton will probably continue to be the front-runner. If she crushes her opposition in the first few contests, I think it's probably over. Obama or Edwards would emerge as the anti-Hillary, but the big money and endorsements of party machines would pretty much all flow her way, while drying up for the anti-Hillary. I think the primaries would be pretty much decided by Feb.6.

The alternative scenario is that Hillary does not do as well as expected in the early contests. This doesn't necessarily mean that Obama or Edwards has to beat her, just that her margin of victory is less than expected. That could really make the race interesting as her would-be supporters decide she's damaged goods and have to go shopping for a new candidate. Then we could see an Obama/Edwards race, or possibly one of the second tier candidates like Biden or Richardson could emerge as, say, the "anybody but Obama" candidate.

Remember, having a "solid lock" on two percent, or even ten percent, doesn't do much for a candidate since there's a 15% threshold before you actually get to collect any delegates. And it's delegates, not raw percentages, that win nominations.

Iowa: No one really emerges from the pack of three. It is largely about organization in Iowa and Obama is clearly behind the eight ball there. He does have big appeal and interest but it is hard to say if that would translate into votes on caucus night. Probably an Edwards/Clinton Toss-up. Obama beats expectations though

Nevada: Richardson is almost a local boy... bit I am not sure this does much for anyone. Hillary could have some momentum going in from Iowa, but who knows.

New Hampshire.You got me. If Hillary wins the first two rounds. You might see a back lash coming or momentum growing, My hunch is that it will be the former and Edwards wins and Obama beats expectations again

South Carolina: The Clinton boomlet fizzles. This is an Obama/Edwards race IMHO. Again its about organization. And given the Demographics I think Obama wins this one. 50% of the Democratic voters are black.


FLorida. Either Hillary regains momentum or stumbles a second time in the south. I am betting she gets walloped in the northern third by Obama and the other three split the rest of the state with Richardson coming in a respectable but too-late 4th place.

In this reasonable scenario....Mega Tuesday is a push and there are not enough delegates remaining for anyone to win the nomination flat out.

He has spent more time in Iowa than all the other candidates combined. He helped Iowa build their party infrastructure from the ground up, and it is reflected in every poll that has been done.

Edwards will win Iowa. How much? Who knows?

Nevada is the only open door to any candidate that is not in the top 3 by that stage.

Edwards is doing some good work in New Hampshire, and responses there are very positive. However, the posture of Obama and Hillary going into that race could skew the outcome. It is just a guess, but I would expect it to be a tossup.

Obama may very well win S. Carolina, but Edwards was born in S. Carolina and there are lots of textile mills that have gone under(another level for voters there to identify with Edwards and his focus on workers' rights and jobs and education). Edwards will do very well in S. Carolina, and still not win.

Florida will be the nail in the coffin for all but the top 2-3 candidates. Who ever moves into Florida with momentum on the Democratic side will likely win the nomination.

Lots of territory to cover between now and the Nomination. Plenty of time for the slip-ups and opposition research to surface.

However, I hope that a brokered convention will not occur. IF it does, we will have large splits in the Democratic Party resulting from so many people being close to the nomination and disappointed.

I think the real answer is Who ever moves out of Florida with momentum on the Democratic side will likely win the nomination.

We are far from a Florida primary, but I do not see a clear winner in Florida anytime soon for the Democrats. IMHO Florida voters will take their cue from the Iowa, Nev, and N. Hampshire results.

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