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The ever increasing "estimates" of the volume of oil gushing from the sea floor .....

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Stinky The Clown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-11-10 08:14 PM
Original message
The ever increasing "estimates" of the volume of oil gushing from the sea floor .....
..... who is ill informed? Were the earlier estimates good faith or bad? Is the government independently verifying BP's data? Is BP feeding the feds a diet of bullshit? Is there collusion? Is there intentional lying? Are we thought to be stupid?

Fact: Early estimates were wildly low.

Fact: We still don't know.

Fact: Current estimates make this a HUGE catastrophe.

Fact: The feds have never seriously disputed BP's figures.

So what's up with all that?
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Oregone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-11-10 08:16 PM
Response to Original message
1. "So what's up with all that?"
Simple. Its easier to ease in to disaster slowly. There is social benefit to not knowing how fucked and helpless we really are immediately, and slowly learn as we desensitize

Cockroach salivates
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Cetacea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-11-10 09:04 PM
Response to Reply #1
12. Gotta love the Cockroach Meter
More poignant than the doomsday clock.
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-11-10 08:17 PM
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The Magistrate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-11-10 08:22 PM
Response to Original message
3. Bad Faith, Sir
The general rule is not impute malice where stupidity can suffice as an explanation, but that can be waived in this case. The company knew it was giving out figures wildly below the actual gush of oil from the sea-bed.
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Stinky The Clown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-11-10 08:35 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. And if that is true, the implicaiton is that the US Government was stupid, naive, or collusive.
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The Magistrate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-11-10 08:46 PM
Response to Reply #4
7. As Mr. Orgone Suggested Above, Sir
There is some ground of sound political calculation for easing slowly to expression of the full scale of the thing. Rulers tend to prefer order, which shock upsets....
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Oregone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-11-10 09:08 PM
Response to Reply #7
15. Unless...
Edited on Fri Jun-11-10 09:14 PM by Oregone
Shock could potentially lead to an increase in authority or profit for ingratiated private parties. It always depends on the circumstance, but I do not think these circumstances dictate a power or money grab. The problem here is immense on its own accord
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Junkdrawer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-11-10 08:40 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. $4,300 / barrel fine....a savings (over 52 days) of $2.2 billion dollars for every 10,000 bbd....
that they can obfuscate or hide.

Given that Tony Hayward told stockholders he expected the entire bill would be $3 billion dollars, that is STRONG motivation to lie.
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Stinky The Clown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-11-10 08:45 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. That part is crystal clear. BP has every motivation to lie. But what about our governemnt?
Stupid or collusive?
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Junkdrawer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-11-10 08:48 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. Our government has been captured by private interests LONG ago....
So long as the bread and circuses hold out, the stomach to do what is necessary to take it back is simply not there.

But all things change.
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northernlights Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-11-10 08:51 PM
Response to Reply #6
9. looking the other way
cuz Big Bidness knows what's best. :(

BP obviously tried to hide the real amount to save money. In the same way they're trying to hide the number of birds killed, so they don't have to pay for them either.
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Laelth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-11-10 08:59 PM
Response to Original message
10. You ask very good questions. n/t
:dem:

-Laelth
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mike_c Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-11-10 09:02 PM
Response to Original message
11. the best case scenario for the administration has ALWAYS been...
...for BP to be right about each and every rosy underestimate they've produced. It's worth pointing out that government scientists-- i.e. NOAA-- were saying that the flow rate was MUCH higher than BP estimated, or at least claimed, from just about the very beginning, and they were undercut by the administration every time. The Obama administration WANTED BP to be right. Now they've hitched their wagon pretty thoroughly to BP's and it's going to take some undoing.
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The Magistrate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-11-10 09:05 PM
Response to Reply #11
13. Good Points, Sir
Better figures were available from the start....
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Stinky The Clown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-11-10 09:08 PM
Response to Reply #11
14. Isn't that what Salazar was asked about in the Senate hearings today?
Why earlier scientific estimates were taken out of some report or other?
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BBG Donating Member (123 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-11-10 11:53 PM
Response to Original message
16. The only benefit is in underestimating...
They pay royalties on the amount pumped, penalties on the amount spilled and damages on the amount of damage. All incentive was in minimizing the amount of the spill. It is the nature of the game and they have played us marvelously.
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BBG Donating Member (123 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-11-10 11:59 PM
Response to Reply #16
17. "Gosh officer, how fast was I going?"
If they admit how much they were spilling then they are liable for that amount in whatever damages will be assessed. Tout suite. Their motivation is to understate in all estimations.
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