Have Republicans Already Blown Their Chance to Recapture The Senate?

Fingers crossed!

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/06/republicans-get-real-about-their-prospects-for-recapturing-the-senate-in-2010.php

Have Republicans Already Blown Their Chance to Recapture The Senate?
Brian Beutler | June 15, 2010, 1:19PM


With nearly five months to go until Election Day, Republican hopes of retaking the Senate have dimmed and they're privately lamenting their lost opportunity. Until just a few weeks ago, Republicans considered winning a Senate majority a long shot but by no means out of reach. But the euphoria over Scott Brown's victory in Massachusetts in January seems a distant memory now, especially after the latest round of primary results last week.

Primary victories by Carly Fiorina in California and Sharron Angle in Nevada bolstered a growing national narrative that Republican candidates are lightweights, or too outside the mainstream, to survive in the fall, and that could harm even top tier Republicans.

snip//

Democrats in Washington state (Murray), Wisconsin (Feingold), and Connecticut (Blumenthal) are safe for now. And Republicans have a couple vulnerabilities of their own.

Popular Florida Governor Charlie Crist is running an increasingly liberal campaign in Florida as an independent against Republican Senate hopeful Marco Rubio and Democrat Kendrick Meek.

And then there's Louisiana, where for the first time since a major sex scandal, Sen. David Vitter (R) will have to face the voters. For the time being, he remains solidly ahead. If you believe the Republican firm Magellan strategies, he leads Democrat Charlie Melancon by 20 points. But a Democratic PPP poll due out tomorrow has Vitter up by only 9 (46-37). And that's before the Democrats have taken aim at Vitter's troubled past.

In a sneak preview for TPM of the Democrats' strategy, a Louisiana strategist says Dems and their surrogates will both directly remind voters of Vitter's transgressions, and use that history, along with his voting record, to dominate the female vote.

"I think you'll see Democrats and outside groups, including disaffected Republicans, members of the Tea Party movement, reminding folks about Vitter's scandal," the Democratic strategist told me.

The revelation that Vitter had frequented prostitutes came at the best (or least harmful) possible time for him, years before his next election. But once voters are reminded of the details, Democrats hope they'll be able to capitalize, particularly with women.

"{T}here will be devastating television ads and mailers pointing out that Vitter voted against equal pay for women, he voted against a law designed to help rape victims, to make sure rape victims get their day in court, he voted against SCHIP--in Louisiana called LACHIP--and consistently voted against female nominees," the strategist added.

Add to that the fact that the general election field is likely to be peppered with conservative underdogs--including a libertarian candidate and a Tea Party-backed independent--all of whom should take votes away from Vitter, and it's not hard to imagine that race becoming competitive in the end.

they've put on the ballot. And Vitter is such a jerk, not to mention a "drill, baby, drill" shill.

You heard it here. You may quote me as long as you refer to me as The Omniscient Lasher.

that was on the verge of tears on the House floor a few weeks ago, talking about the damage to the wetlands of Louisiana?

He has been getting a boatload of national coverage, as a very articulate spokesman for the people of the Gulf Coast affected by the BP gusher. I hope that will help his campaign!

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docid=news-000003682431&topic=Feature

Melancon Takes On a Second Opponent: BP
By Nathan L. Gonzales, Roll Call Contributing Writer

Rep. Charlie Melancon hasn’t made much headway in his contest against Sen. David Vitter (R) over the past seven months, but now the Democrat has a new enemy in the Louisiana Senate race: BP.

With oil from the Deepwater Horizon leak threatening the shores and marshes of his 3rd Congressional district, Melancon has dramatically increased his profile. He’s been making the rounds on the cable news talk shows and received plenty of national attention for his post-spill efforts.
Click here to learn more!

But Melancon must be careful not to look too political in a time of crisis, and it’s unclear whether he has fundamentally changed the dynamics of the Senate race. Early indications are that he still has a lot of work to do.

A new Public Policy Polling (D) survey released exclusively to Roll Call showed Melancon trailing Vitter by 9 points, 46 percent to 37 percent. Vitter led by a dozen points in July 2009, the last time PPP surveyed the contest.

more...

we'll know by August, I believe.

Clearing expected by November.

clearly as the time approaches.
In the late 1990's the GOP declared that they were THE PERMANENT MAJORITY in both houses and in the White House-they could not imagine they would ever be defeated.

They were wrong then, and they are wrong now in predicting a GOP takeover in November. They have done NOTHING to deserve it, and the public really does remember their "politics first" actions in these times of crisis.

mark