Medium chance that a tropical cyclone will form in the Carribean within 48 hours

From the National Hurricane Center...



FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ACCOMPANIED BY A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH
MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING WELL
TO THE EAST OF THE LOW AND AFFECTING MUCH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

Lets hope that does not happen... :(

There is now a high chance of a tropical cyclone forming in the Carribean...



FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN THE EASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS
AND JAMAICA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS EVENING. SURFACE
PRESSURES HAVE BEEN FALLING IN THE AREA AND THERE HAS BEEN AN
INCREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

http://www.stormpulse.com

It's the same information as the National Hurricane Center but with an interactive interface. I've been watching this for a couple of days now, and it's been moving WNW the whole time. I kind of doubt it'll get into the Gulf without having to reorganize if it does.