First Read's Top 10 Senate takeovers

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro

If it's Friday, it's time for another First Read Top 10 list -- this time our monthly look at what we consider the Top 10 Senate takeovers (i.e., one party losing control of a Senate seat and the other party gaining it). The big mover here is Florida, given the growing chance that Charlie Crist (I) could very well win this race. Caveats: The three-way contest is highly unpredictable, and we still don't know with which party Crist will caucus. But if the GOP nominee, Marco Rubio, loses the race, it's hard to see how that isn't a takeover. The number in parentheses is our ranking from last month.

1. North Dakota (1): John Hoeven (R), come on down.
2. Delaware (2): This race has been quiet, and that only favors Mike Castle (R).
3. Arkansas (3): Passage of Wall Street reform will be a feather in Blanche Lincoln's (D) cap, but she remains the underdog to John Boozman (R).
4. Indiana (4): Brad Ellsworth is up with his first TV ad criticizing lobbyists (see: Coats, Dan). But what is the bigger albatross in Indiana right now: being a lobbyist or being a supporter of the Democratic agenda?
5. Nevada (5): Is Harry Reid (D) vs. Sharron Angle (R) the purest Senate toss-up in the country? The winner might need just 45% (with "None of the above" on the ballot).
6. Pennsylvania (7): If Nevada isn't a pure toss-up, then this race probably is. Joe Sestak's (D) advantage: the Dem registration edge in the state. Pat Toomey's (R): the national environment and the GOP edge in the gubernatorial contest.
7. Florida (unranked): The longer the BP story plays out and the closer the Meek-Greene Dem primary becomes, it's hard to believe how that doesn't help Charlie Crist's indie bid.
8. Illinois (6): We're unsure what's worse -- Alexi Giannoulias' (D) bank woes or Mark Kirk's (R) constant misrepresentations about his record?
9. Washington (10): The GOP now has chances to win in California, Washington, and Wisconsin, but Dino Rossi (R) is probably the strongest of all the Republicans running in these blue states.
10. Ohio (8): Lee Fisher (D) has a serious money disadvantage vs. Rob Portman (R), but does Ted Strickland in the gubernatorial contest push Fisher over the finish line?

The other races we're watching (in order of likely takeover): Colorado, Kentucky, Missouri, Wisconsin, California, New Hampshire, Connecticut. Wow, this competitive Senate field gets bigger and bigger, and you can now add West Virginia. Oh, and this doesn't include Louisiana, which could pop given the intense media scrutiny David Vitter is under these days.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2010/07/09/4644755-first-reads-top-10-senate-takeovers

I still Florida as the biggie here. If Crist can pull it off and if he does indeed caucus with the Dems, it's a major momentum changer for the Democrats.. in addition to a seat pickup. The GOPers are frantic about Crist winning. They know the importance of the state of Florida and also the value of a Democrat-friendly Crist who still has very high approvals there.

He's landed himself a cushie berth on the Good Ship Village and there's no way in hell he's gonna do anything but carry water for the "serious" people.

but doesn't include Kentucky, where there was a tie in the last poll I saw.

Todd doesn't have anything substantive to say about any of the races. To call Reid/Angle a toss-up is ridiculous. Reid wins that one with 60% at least. Pat Toomey realistically has no chance. If he did, he would have beat Spector in the primary 6 years ago and would be the incumbent Senator from PA (it took organized labor supporting Spector in the GOP primary to get him through to the GE in 04). Hell will freeze over before Illinois elects a GOP Senator. And Blanche Lincoln has no chance which is no loss for Democrats anyway.

And Todd avoids the game changers like Kentucky which will be a sure thing Democratic pickup. At least he's calling FL correctly.