I think McCain is going to be the Republican nominee.

I think Giuliani will be forced out before the action even starts. Romney may also be headed for an early fall. If McCain starts to pick up momentum now, Thompson won't bother getting in. In the field that's left, McCain has the best name recognition, the heir apparency to the Bushists, the experience to know what he's in for in the campaign. I think the Republicans' deal with the Bible Belt devil is going to cost them the candidates with the broadest appeal (to the "center"), but they'll be too chicken (or smart) to go with any of the nuts to McCain's apparent right who really represent the base.

That leaves McCain.

because he is too unstable to survive the campaign without self destructing

there was a time when I thought he might be the next prez.... but not now... I feel he has "screwn" himself...

He can't help himself. The last time he did this he got wound tight....ended up looking like a deranged ferret on meth.

18 months. And Law and order has many fans - I do not expect the GOP reasoning to go deeper than the above.

It won't play nice with someone just because they look nice and appeal to voters in Massachusetts.

1. Slow and steady wins the race.
2. He may be wrong on a lot of issues, but he is also consistent.
3. War hero.
4. Bush heir apparent (if he can find a way of putting a positive spin on that)
5. If he picks a "popular" personna to be VP who will be subordinate to him if elected (well, that rules out Rudy)

When he was so brutally abused by the bu$h campaign then loved up to the chimp for the last 6 1/2 years. There had to be some deal to give him the spot in 08

Just my two cents worth

believe * got in again in 04, though there are probably other reasons for that.

McCain is acting less and less stable, weathervaning all over the place. I expect that to escalate as his support staff continue dropping like flies. If he can't convince those who work for him he's electable, I don't see him convincing many other people.

I could be wrong, but I can't see how they'll really go for anyone more "centrist" than he.

that does not compute for me, or translate into votes imo. Of course, a lot could happen between now and the primaries, though there's absolutely nothing that could happen to sway me that this occupation is a good idea.
I guess we shall see. I think the rethug field as a whole is pretty weak; they all have their negatives they'll have to spin.

I didn't say I thought he would win the popular vote in the general election. The Republicans are not a pragmatic bunch. They'll go with whomever is able to propitiate the wingnuts as well as the eminences grises.

they can plan on having him as the grandfatherly figurehead a la RR, put the real guy in as vp, maybe have mccain resign due to infirmity in a year or two...


BUT, they have to keep him on his meds thru the campaign

of course, the very idea that ANYONE thought * outperformed either Gore or Kerry, that he demonstrated ANYTHING to recommend him (oh, wait, I forgot - he claimed he's been 'born again' - theres the ticket!) suggests that it is still possible to put a doddering doofus in charge, which is what they REALLY want. Neither RG nor MR would likely be quite as good a vassal.

I'd love it.

He's keeping his powder dry for now so he can be the last one standing.

Prez Newt........hahahaha

I'm hoping Bloomberg or Hagel run as independents and the GOP finishes a poor 3rd.

What a gift.............

that McCain might go by the way of Lieberman and run as an independent.

I agree, Rudy will implode in the primaries...I can't see him doing very well in Iowa or any state with a sizeable fundy bloc. His sole claim is that could beat Hillary and the polls are showing that isn't the case.

Thompson wishes he could get in, but his appearances have been real bombs...he'd have to fire up the cash fast and hope to "win by default"...not quite the strong candidate and surely not a Raygun. Maybe a '76 Raygun, but not an '80 model.

Remember, money will buy this nomination...make no mistake of it. Booooshie spent all of '99 outraising his opponents and just the money went a long way to beating down McCain and paying into the "Mighty Wurlitzer" operation of Blackwell and others that first went after McCain and then Gore. The man whose best positioned to grab those "brass rings" is Mittens...not McCain.

Mittens is already on the air and the PR spin about him being "hot" rings of the same astroturfing boooshie got in '99 about being a "guy you'd like to have a beer with" and "fun loving"...soften the image and create a personality sans substance and hope you fool enough primary voters. Of all the candidates, Mittens "looks" the part the "faithful" or whatever is left of the GOOP is hoping to find. Right now they're just trying to whitewash his past and contraditions like they did with Junior's alcoholism, drug bust and draft dodging.

Will this work? I still put my bets we'll see a third party "liberatarian" or "true social conservative" pop out later this year or early next year. My bets are still on Gnewtie and the Scaiffe-AEI conduit doing his heavy lifting.

Cheers...

:hi:

Mittens is getting a reputation as a huge flip-flopper. And the fact he has 5 military age sons that never served will be tough thing to defend.

Remember, this nomination is for the 30% of the overall eletorate...and then for jus 30% of that group. He's also banking on the lower ranks will suck up enough votes from those who would be turned off by his flip-flopping that he can split the difference...being "friendlier" and more electable than Rudy and his flip-flops and a lot more "vibrant" than McCain. Again, image here trumps policy. Why should Mitten's kids hiding from the military be any different than a majority of the Repugnicans who have outsourced the war to the poor and "riff-raff".

Cheers...

Especially the part about Thompson--Glenn Greenwald (blogger on Salon) reviewed his speech to the Council on National Policy (crazy secretive right-wing group) and apparently Thompson totally contradicted himself in his own speech. Went on and on about how we don't respect the "rule of law" in this country and then in the next breath asks Bush to pardon Scooter Libby because he just shouldn't have to go to jail for perjury/obstructing justice! Sounds like an idiot, and Libby isn't exactly an issue that will fire up Americans this coming election. Fred's other big prez issue is "federalism". Yep, not repairing our standing in the world, or a new direction to end the war, or health care--federalism. That's what's going to drive folks to the polls in numbers never seen before. Just because Republicans get excited over someone doesn't mean that the rest of the country will give a shit. Bush was actually a compromise for them--that's why he (almost) won.

Could be. I think Romney's Mormonism, his carbetbagging, his slipperiness on positions all have the potential to derail him.

Here's a relevant article from the WaPo on where the race now stands that makes me even more sure that Romney won't make it to the nomination:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/05/14/AR2007051401437.html?nav=rss_politics

Giuliani has led in national polls taken since the first GOP debate, but his advantage over second-place McCain is smaller now than it was six weeks ago. Romney generally runs third in those polls, well behind Giuliani and McCain. In the three states with the earliest contests -- Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina -- the race is even more unsettled.

Tonight's debate offers another opportunity for candidates in the next tiers to attract attention. It could be Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas or former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee challenging Giuliani or Romney on abortion, or Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado challenging McCain on immigration.

...

The Spartanburg Herald-Journal reported that some unsigned literature attacking Mormonism was being mailed to some households in the state. The literature was described as "an eight-page diatribe," with the title "Mormons in Contemporary American Society: A Politically Dangerous Religion?" It did not mention Romney, who is Mormon, but was seen by politically active South Carolinians as a direct attack on his candidacy, the paper said.

Tonight's debate will draw a lot of press, but Republican strategist Mike Murphy, who has worked for both McCain and Romney in the past, said the early debates will probably do little to shape the race. "There's nothing you can do to put the campaign away this early," he said. "You can only screw up."

Just as with predictions about who wins the Democratic Party horse race, there's a lot that can and will happen between now and the first primaries that I'm certain will make these posts very amusing reading a year from now. I'm blissfully uncommitted on the Democratic side...doing my thing on focusing on local races...but handicapping the Repugnicans is just too much fun.

Burt...I always respect your take and enjoy the give and take...so here goes...

The Mormonism is only a factor if there's a strong fundie candidate to make it so. Just as Rudy's Catholicism is...but again, I'll use my mantra that money trumps all. If there's one denomination ALL Repugnicans belong to it's the church of the folding green...where In God We Trust is the first and last commandment. If it means winning and power, the rank and file will rank and file. Now the question is how much of a rank and file that will be.

We both agree Rudy's gonna bust out or flame out between now and next year. I see him very vulnerable in Iowa and I can't think he's doing 40% in South Carolina. His millstones are gonna be too heavy to run that gauntlet. Thus, McCain still stands, but I don't think as strongly as you may. I think his support is broken between the die-hards and those who are picking him by default...the traditional inch-thick support. He had the same thing in '00...the media was his campaign vehicle to make up for a poor ground operation...and from what I've been seeing and reading his organization isn't much better this time around.

Remember, Mittens quietly locked away some key booooosh money people and operatives and has been able to innoculate himself from the clusterfuck in the executive where McCain can't. How ironic since a look at the roster of supporters show more bushbots, like brother Jebbie, on the Mittens bandwagon.

Dare I say, Mittens has the "Nixonian" look...shifty eyes and all...and as has been stated here, the GOOP is looking for a next someone else...a new Raygun or even a Nixon...something to mask over the disaster of the past 7 years.

Always a pleasure to read your thoughts.

Cheers...

:toast:

:toast:

Money is always something to be considered, certainly where Repubs are concerned. But then I always remember the spectacular flameout of John Connolly, former governor of Texas who was in the car with the Kennedys in Dallas and who switched to the Republican Party in 1973. He was thought to be the Great Republican Hope in 1980 because of his ability to raise cash and appeal across party lines.

We know how well he went over.

Anyway, McCain is my hunch today. We'll see how I feel when Romney wins the nomination. ;)

(By the way, I'm not backing any horses in the Democratic field yet either.)

...obvious fall into the chasm of lunacy. Mittens polls only slightly less than a middle eastern cab driver, but for some reason he's the teevee news' darling. They want him. He's super-rich and flip-flops even more than McCain.

.

mitt fudd.

I wonder who he'd look like with this one...

Prediction time: the only way McCain gets the nomination is if Hagel runs as an independent and Gingrich stays out of the race. Otherwise, the most conservative GOP voters would be attracted to Hagel like flies to poo and Gingrich would smoke McCain because he is a much more effective liar. When Gingrich speaks, you have to think for a minute before you see the lie. When McCain speaks, you know it's a lie because his lips are moving.

n/t

the fray in about 4-6 months.

The current crop will be well worn by then, and if still standing, this whole group will fall flat on it's collective faces. There are no "ideas" out there, just Reagan worship and essentially letting thing go on as they have. This road spells serious disaster for the GOP.

There are people behind the scenes that are trying, in sheer separation, to get some kind of "message" that the GOP can run on, but bush has completely destroyed any vestige of hope for the GOP for many years to come. They have nothing but fear, and distancing themselves from bush to run on, not much there to use for points that old get the nation back together.

At this point, all of the candidates are essentially sacrificial lambs. The D's could put an old dog in the fray and come out w/450 electoral votes. Some R out there, will come forward w/some ideas that are palatable, but even then, considering no D disaster comes along, the R chances to win the General Election are exceptionally dismal. Someone like Colin Powell could make a difference, but he's tainted w/initial bush loyalty, and while he is an extremely talented and intelligent man, he hooked himself to the biggest flop in modern politics...tough stigma to get over...:)

I've heard he'll announce around July 1st

the more he opens his mouth, the less "charisma" he seems to have. Add to that the cancer, the wife, potential personal, career, and financial skeletons, and the lack of a real reason to run--nope, it's gonna be Rudy McRomney (my money's on Romney--he will creep up slowly in the polls, and he's already WAY ahead in NH). GOPers aren't that stupid--in the end, they will bet on their strongest horse, the one who will appeal most to both parties.

And he is a dangerous candidate.

and he has flip flopped on a million issues. I think it will be Romney or Thompson.

vote in the primaries. just because the msm loves him doesn't mean the base does.

Will they fall in love with Romney? I doubt it. McCain has been working very hard to make himself attractive to all the wingers he pissed off in 2000. I think once Giuliani loses all momentum, McCain will start to pickup. I think he will win in South Carolina using against Romney some of the rough stuff Bush used against him. (Someone is sending anti-Mormon tracts around the state. I wonder if it's a Bush operative trying to keep a promise to McCain--if they're capable of keeping promises, tearing a mutual enemy a part is about the only way they can "honor" them.)

That...is a very bad sign, I'd say.

it pays to be George Dubya's boy-toy.

The man is unelectable. He's a cranky, crazy old flip-flopper. He can be beaten by the very weakest of the democratic candidates, whomever you feel that might be.

.