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Nate Silver: Feingold's chances of winning just dropped to 5.3%.

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jtrockville Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-10 09:03 AM
Original message
Nate Silver: Feingold's chances of winning just dropped to 5.3%.
Edited on Thu Oct-14-10 09:06 AM by jtrockville
Nate Silver's page on the Feingold vs Johnson senate race:
http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/senate/wisconsin

A few days ago, Silver gave Feingold an 11.3% chance of winning.
Today, Silver dropped Feingold's chance of winning to 5.3%.

Between Sept. 18 and Sept. 22 Feingold's chances (according to Silver) dropped from 67% to 20.5%

WHAT HAPPENED in mid-September? I try to keep up with the news, and of course I'd heard that Feingold was in trouble, but I don't recall hearing anything specific that would cause Feingold's chances to drop like a lead zeppelin in just 4 days.

Do other polls show Feingold faring so poorly?

PS, if you're so inclined, donate to Russ here: http://www.russfeingold.org/
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saltpoint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-10 09:05 AM
Response to Original message
1. Polling shows Feingold running c. 7 or 8 percentage
points behind his opponent.

Feingold's campaign claims a tighter race.

This one is looking iffy. I would urge anybody with some extra pocket money to throw a buck or two toward the re-election of one of the best Senators to ever serve.
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jtrockville Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-10 09:07 AM
Response to Reply #1
4. Yeah, I should dig a little deeper and fork over a few more $$$
I've already given several contributions to Russ. We need to keep him in the senate.
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saltpoint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-10 09:08 AM
Response to Reply #4
6. Agree. He's one of the strong links to the real thing.
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SharonAnn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-10 09:08 AM
Response to Reply #1
5. I just contributed. He's an important senator and his loss would be serious.
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saltpoint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-10 09:09 AM
Response to Reply #5
7. It would be. Especially against the idea that people
are dissatisfied with "government," forgetting that we ARE the government, and Feingold is one of the government's brightest lights.

Also his opponent is a slick weasel.
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jtrockville Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-10 09:14 AM
Response to Reply #5
12. Glad to hear that SharonAnn, thanks.
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Ian David Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-10 09:06 AM
Response to Original message
2. Russ Feingold - Progressive Leader
Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold needs our support right now.

For months, polling has shown Russ neck and neck with his right-wing opponent Ron Johnson and Johnson has already spent over $4 million on slash-and-burn television ads to mislead voters and scare up votes. In fact, he's been out spending Russ on T.V. by 3 to 1 and as of this week, it appears to be working. The most recent polling shows Senator Feingold down by 7%.

This is unacceptable.

Senator Russ Feingold is one of the strongest progressive fighters in the Senate. Time after time Russ has delivered for America and Wisconsin. It's up to us to make sure he has the resources to fight back and win.

Contribute now and give Russ Feingold the resources to fight back
http://www.actblue.com/page/supportrussfeingold

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BeFree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-10 09:10 AM
Response to Reply #2
8. So
Why is he behind?
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BeFree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-10 10:09 AM
Response to Reply #8
14. Crickets?
Why is he losing? Anybody have a fucking clue? Anyone?
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jtrockville Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-10 10:32 AM
Response to Reply #14
15. According to an email I received from Russ after posting:
Make no mistake about it. While Ron Johnson's millions are making this a very close race, it's the millions of dollars in slash-and-burn ads that groups like the Chamber of Commerce have dumped into Wisconsin that's made this race dead even.

It's not just happening in Wisconsin, it's happening in Democratic races across the country. But it's especially acute here because Wisconsin is an inexpensive media market.


Not sure if that's the whole picture or not, but it's got to be part of it.

The email was a plea to contribute within two minutes. I didn't make the target, but I did contribute within ten minutes (I was on my way to making a contribution when I received the email).

Whatever the reason, Russ needs our help.
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jtrockville Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-10 09:11 AM
Response to Reply #2
9. Would be TOTALLY unacceptable to lose Feingold
I honestly can't think of a single instance where he disappointed. Wish I could say that of my own representatives.
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saltpoint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-10 09:13 AM
Response to Reply #2
10. +1.
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BzaDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-10 09:07 AM
Response to Original message
3. There is a reason for that. In relity, basically every poll for months has shown him losing.
And since the primary, basically every poll has shown him losing by 7-12 points.

The only reason Silver ever had him at a non-negligable chance of winning was because he thought non-polling factors (i.e. Obama approval in WI, demographics in WI, etc) indicated that Feingold would do better than the polls. But the more polls that came out that showed certain defeat, the more weighting goes on polls, and the less weighting goes on non-polling factors.

So basically, as more and more polls come out, his model will gradually lower the percentage chance of winning to reflect only the polls (which means 0).
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dennis4868 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-10 09:14 AM
Response to Original message
11. This is really sad.....
the voters in WI are about to fire someone who truly looks out for them (and not the lobbyist), cares more than anyone else about the US Constitution, and is as bright as they come....WTF is going on here? Firing Feingold would be like the New York Yankees in 1927 releasing Babe Ruth and replacing him with a 220 hitter because the owners are upset that the Babe is hitting way too many homeruns.
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handmade34 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-10 09:21 AM
Response to Original message
13. such a fine man
what is so wrong in WI?
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democrat_patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-10 11:11 AM
Response to Original message
16. Just sent $50
He is a good man.

If every member here gave $1.....just sayin'.
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jtrockville Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-10 11:17 AM
Response to Reply #16
17. Wow, that's marvelous democrat_patriot. Thanks.
According to Feingold's email, he needs more than $1 per DU member. He needs more like $2 per DU member.

Your $50 is mighty generous. I sure hope he pulls ahead.

I kicked in another $10 today ($35 so far this week). I've been contributing little bits all along.
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democrat_patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-10 11:27 AM
Response to Reply #17
18. I'll do another one early next week.

He was one of the few brave Dems who stood up to GW. I can't believe his seat is actually in trouble.

Anyone know if Obama or Biden are heading there?
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pstokely Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-10 11:50 AM
Response to Reply #18
19. They've been there already
nt
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jtrockville Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-10 11:58 AM
Response to Reply #19
20. Yet Russ is still behind. We can't let this happen.
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HelenWheels Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-10 12:12 PM
Response to Original message
21. Donated $100
Also gave him $100 in September and August.
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GSLevel9 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-10 12:22 PM
Response to Original message
22. simple...
it's a temper tantrum amongst white voters.

look at Wi demo's... blue collar white voters are blaming DEMS. If Gramps and Bimbo had won in '08... they'd be firing everyone with an R after their name.

THIS is why Obama should have completely shot his load and gone for broke with a Public Option, dismantling DADT and DOMA in the first 2 years. Politically there will be NO WILLPOWER to pass ANY meaningful legislation the next two years...
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