House Polling Dump 10/20/10

... in which I find myself at odds with the almighty Nate Silver. Seriously, it almost makes me nervous that my projections (220 Democrats, 215 Republican) are so out of whack with someone whose work I respect as much as FiveThirtyEight, or any other prognosticator for that matter. And yes, I'm just a guy with access to poll results and something of a nose for politics. But I just don't see the type of wave that people keep talking about when I dig down into individual district polling results. But as usual, judge for yourself, and since the DU community (which I'm very happy to be a part of) is from all over the country, as usual, I appreciate your insights on your local races.

http://bit.ly/cbKtho

I went to intrade. You can 1-8 odds on Democrats retaining the House. If the Republicants don't win the House it will be the greatest instance of the "dog that didn't bark" in the history of the republic.

My bad.

I appreciate the opportunity to give you a hard time about it. :evilgrin:

everywhere I look there's bad news... and with the national pulse, I can't see the DEMS holding the House. Period. Bump this thread in a couple weeks...

Trust me, I keep hoping when I look at the day's numbers that I'll come up with something that puts me more in line with the rest of the world when it comes to this. But I'm just not seeing a ton at the micro level (district-by-district polling) that confirms the macro doom and gloom. It's only if you factor in things like the Generic Ballot (which assumes an even layer of voter discontent rather than pockets here or there) and start shifting everything to fit that storyline that you get the idea of a "wave" election.

New York 24 is a perfect example. FiveThirtyEight has had this a Republican pickup since July, even though there are three polls (two independent and a Dem internal) showing the Democrat ahead by 13, 8, and 10.

so much so, that I bookmarked your site on one of your previous posts.

Your projections match my "hunch" almost exactly. I've got both you AND Nate on my " trustworthy" list. :)

as it is a stubborn insistence on looking at local polling instead of doing what way too many national pundits do and trying to extrapolate out a nationwide poll into 435 conclusions. Just today, Chuck Todd, in the SAME SENTENCE, talked about the latest NBC poll's finding that voters were more concerned about their individual politician than national politics and ALSO mentioned the GOP lead on the nationwide generic ballot.

I'm not saying I'm going to be right. I probably have less faith in my prediction than some of the folks reading it. But when three polls in a district all have the Democrat ahead by significant margins, I don't see how it's anything other than a district where the Democrat is favored.