Me vs. Nate Silver: The Dirty Dozen

OK, so I'm not comparing myself to Nate. He's the best electoral predictor in the business, and I'm a guy with a computer and some free time. But there are 12 (were 13) districts where I disagree with him, and the common theme is that he (and a lot of other prognosticators) are, in my humble opinion, putting too much emphasis on PVI, and voter registration, and money, and national trends. My own opinion is that you shouldn't consider someone a favorite if they've never led in a public poll, and yet even Nate is doing that this year.

I'm still predicting a Republican takeover, but I think folks who are trying to make 435 battles into one big war may be a bit too hung up on national numbers.

http://conversation101.squarespace.com/generic-ballot/2010/10/27/me-vs-nate-silver-the-dirty-bakers-dozen.html?SSScrollPosition=2409

If only because he was so refreshingly independent. But since the New York Times became his landlord, he's been disturbingly unclear.

:shrug:
rocktivity

explain.