New DSCC Poll: Alexi Giannoulias, Mark Kirk Statistically Tied

An Anzalone Liszt Research poll taken for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign committee from Oct. 27 and 28 shows Democrat Alexi Giannoulias leading Republican Mark Kirk 39 percent to 37 percent, a statistical tie since the poll had a margin of error of 4.9 points.

The same poll of 400 likely voters found Libertarian candidate Michael Labo with 4 percent, Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones with 3 percent, and 16 percent of voters undecided. It's a small shift from the Anzalone Liszt poll taken Oct. 20 to 24, which showed Giannoulias with 38 percent and Kirk with 36 percent.

A flurry of other polls have been released in the race, a high-stakes fight tomorrow for President Barack Obama's former seat. An Oct. 30 and 31 Public Policy Polling survey of 814 likely voters showed Kirk ahead with 46 percent and Giannoulias with 42 percent. That poll had a margin of error of just 3.4 points.

The most recent Rasmussen poll, an Oct. 26 survey of 750 likely voters, showed Kirk at 46 percent and Giannoulias at 42 percent, which was within the margin of error of four points. Likewise, a Fox News poll taken on Oct. 30 showed Kirk at 46 percent, Giannoulias at 42 percent and Jones at 6 percent. It had a margin of error of 3 points.

As in close races everywhere, turnout will be key in the Illinois Senate race. A Democratic source said the combined efforts of the DSCC, the Democratic National Committee and Organizing for America will mean volunteers knock on 950,000 doors, make 300,000 phone calls and operate out of 191 staging locations throughout the state.

Turnout operations for either party should also affect other close races on the ballot in Illinois, including the gubernatorial race and close House races in the districts embattled Democratic Reps. Bill Foster, Debbie Halvorson and Phil Hare hold, as well as the open seat Kirk vacated.

Source: http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2010/11/new-dscc-poll-alexi-giannoulia.html

Go Alexi!