So it's 10 pm and repubs still need 28 seats to take over the house

notadmblnd

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Tue Nov-02-10 09:17 PM
Original message

So it's 10 pm and repubs still need 28 seats to take over the house

Edited on Tue Nov-02-10 09:17 PM by notadmblnd

Am I way off? Why is everyone in such a downer mood?

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nadinbrzezinski

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Tue Nov-02-10 09:18 PM
Response to Original message

1. Because the media declared it

and gosh darn it, California (one of the largest ones) has not even closed yet. Let alone AK and Hawaii.

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Wickerman

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Tue Nov-02-10 09:18 PM
Response to Original message

2. +1

Some good out there, but lets not harsh everyone's down.

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stray cat

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Tue Nov-02-10 09:19 PM
Response to Original message

3. Time zones

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walldude

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Tue Nov-02-10 09:21 PM
Response to Original message

4. I'm feelin alright.. Colorado has done well for us.

My district remains blue, the districts are going to split even R&D but we get the Senate and the Governorship plus SecState and Treasurer AG went to the R's.

We kicked Tancredo's ass. Beck can fucking stay home now.

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notadmblnd

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Tue Nov-02-10 09:27 PM
Response to Reply #4

6. I'm seeing Dems winning too.

Outside of Rand Paul (which everyone seems to think- he's going to destroy the world single-handedly). Most republicans that are winning are already republican seats. Blanch Lincoln, you say? She always was a republican in Dems clothing. But I've never known her to support one progressive issue. I only see blue dogs losing to repubs and Dems keeping control of both houses. Not a tsunami, not a landslide, not a mandate and certainly not a repub takeover like they hoped for.

But of course I'm just an outsider with an opinion, sure would be nice to be right though.

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Hawkeye-X

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Tue Nov-02-10 10:17 PM
Response to Reply #4

20. Fuck. Cary and Bernie lost?

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Kolesar

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Tue Nov-02-10 09:25 PM
Response to Original message

5. Losing Ohio districts 1, 6, 15 , 16, and 18

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notadmblnd

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Tue Nov-02-10 09:28 PM
Response to Reply #5

7. but did Dems have them to begin with?

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Kolesar

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Tue Nov-02-10 09:34 PM
Response to Reply #7

10. Yes. Now we will be down to the few districts the gop crammed all the Dems into

in Toledo, Akron, and Cleveland. 5 districts

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in_cog_ni_to

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Tue Nov-02-10 09:30 PM
Response to Original message

8. Chris Van Hollen called MSNBC and told them they were WRONG

in their projected wins and House takeover. Nancy Pelosi says we will retain a Majority in the House. I'm guessing Van Hollen and Pelosi know more than the talking heads on MSNBC.

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Kolesar

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Tue Nov-02-10 09:35 PM
Response to Reply #8

12. ?

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8 track mind

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Tue Nov-02-10 09:36 PM
Response to Reply #8

13. im beginning to wonder the same thing

this is no where near the blowout the repugs were predicting. It ain't over yet.....

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deaniac21

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Tue Nov-02-10 09:32 PM
Response to Original message

9. They have taken 18 democratic seats.

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notadmblnd

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Tue Nov-02-10 09:35 PM
Response to Reply #9

11. According to calculations,

the GOP has officially picked up 12 formerly Democratic House seats and the Democrats have picked up 1 formerly Republican seat. That's a net gain of 11 seats (they need a net gain of 39 to officially take the House).

The Republicans, then, need another 28 pickups (and no Dem pickups) to make it official.

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Statistical

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Tue Nov-02-10 09:42 PM
Response to Original message

14. Another way to look at it.

Edited on Tue Nov-02-10 09:44 PM by Statistical

http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/results/house/big-board

Change drop down so it shows only Democratic seats.

Republicans have net gain of +19 so far.

+3 more seats in very likely to win seats
+10 more in expected to win seats.

90% of those races show Rep well ahead. Lets say Republicans pull them. Now flip selection to Rep held seats. Democrats look to pickup +3.

Net net that puts Repu at gain of +30. 9 more to gain control.

There are 30 tossup up races. Democrats would need to win 2/3rds of those and not lose any other Dem leaning seat to "hold the line".
Very very very unlikely.

We have a lot of close races but ultimately Rep will take control of the House. Democrats will retain control of Senate.

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notadmblnd

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Tue Nov-02-10 09:56 PM
Response to Reply #14

15. How is it that Dems need to pick up 2/3 of those 30?

Seems to me if Dems get 8, it prevents the repubs from getting control. You think 8 out of 30 is unlikely?

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Statistical

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Tue Nov-02-10 10:09 PM
Response to Reply #15

16. 8 won't be enough. Hell 15 won't be enough.

flip the drop down to just Republican seats to make it simpler.

The count has since I last posted. R now have +25.
Looking at Republican seats it looks like Dems will pull 3 seats dropping that gain to +22.

Now flip board to Democratic held seats.
There are 11 seats in very likely or likely R pickup +11.

So other than tossup uncalled states Rep are looking at +33.

Democrats need ALL the tossups except 5.

So Democrats can't just win 8 of the tossups. They need to win ALL the tossups except 5.

They need 25 of the 30 tossups. If they get "only" 20 of the tossups (currently held by Dem) that is +10 seats to Republicans which puts them over the top.

Essentially if the leaners go as predicted Democrats need 25 of the 30 tossup seats currently held by Democrats which is very unlikely.

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Statistical

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Tue Nov-02-10 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #16

17. +34 now.

Edited on Tue Nov-02-10 10:12 PM by Statistical

To hold it here we would need to pull EVERY SINGLE remaining toss up AND pull 2 or more Rep leaning race while not losing any Dem leaning race.

The house will fall. It is inevitable at this point.

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notadmblnd

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Tue Nov-02-10 10:13 PM
Response to Reply #16

18. well, I hope you are wrong.

I'm not being mean by saying that.

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Statistical

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Tue Nov-02-10 10:17 PM
Response to Reply #18

19. I wish I was.

Edited on Tue Nov-02-10 10:17 PM by Statistical

Watching the numbers come in is like seeing a noose tighten. With each secured race the likelihood of an enough upsets to keep control gets slimmer.

The Republicans won't take the Senate though.
They would need every tossup race AND win CA. They might get close 48 or 49 but won't pull 50.

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notadmblnd

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Tue Nov-02-10 10:29 PM
Response to Reply #19

21. Conyers won his, Peters is going to win too. That's two.

I'm staying optimistic for now.

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