Was Iran's election really stolen? Lula De Silva say the protesters are unruly football fans...

Well, there's the election tonight and I've done everything I can on that front, so I'd like to put my mind on another topic: The Iran election. It seems so much after the fact it ought to now be possible to some conclusion.

Lula De Silva of Brazil, someone I respect a lot, came out and basically endorsed the election (1). In fact, he compared the election protesters to unruly football fans (2). I can understand the comparison, in the aftermath of football games you sometimes get people over-excited and in fights, but that really doesn't indicate anything. Hillary and Flynt Leverette, another two people I respect, also doubt that the election was stolen (3). What exactly is the evidence that the election was stolen? There was that statistical regression, but Nate Silver seems to have debunked that (4). Now, the government has been brutal in the treatment of protesters, but on that count I don't see a big gulf between how the police in America sometimes behave. It might be more systematized in Iran, but that doesn't prove the election was stolen, just that the Basij are brutal.

Anyone here who studied this and has some insights to share with me on this?

1: http://riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/rio-politics/brazil-supports-iranian-election-results/
2: http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,696553,00.html
3: http://www.raceforiran.com/
4: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/statistical-evidence-does-not-prove.html

their maintenance. There was a lot of media manipulation *here* around that election.

I remember McCain proposed flying drones over Iran equipped with WiFi repeaters, or to give Iranian satellite internet users free access following the election. Luckily neither of those manipulation plans went anywhere. I'd forgotten though that the US government had been successful in getting Twitter to help the protesters.