What happens next in the tax-cut standoff: Three scenarios

By Bob Cusack and Michael M. Gleeson - 12/11/10 06:14 PM ET

If the Bush-era tax cuts are going to be extended beyond Dec. 31, someone is going to have to blink.

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Scenario No. 1: The Senate passes deal, the House amends the measure and sends it back to the upper chamber, which approves it. Obama signs it into law.

The pending tax cut compromise has the votes to pass both the Senate and the House. The Senate will act first and likely pass it fairly easily. But it can’t pass the House this month unless Pelosi brings it to a vote.

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Scenario No. 2: The Senate approves the deal, the House amends it, and gridlock ensues.

If Democrats change as much as a comma in the deal, congressional Republicans could walk away. It is especially noteworthy that some powerful players on the right, including Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh, are opposed to the plan.

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Scenario No. 3: Senate passes the deal, House Democrats bend and agree to vote on the legislation, and it is signed into law.

Most aides, lawmakers and lobbyists believe this is the most probable scenario.

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http://thehill.com/homenews/house/133251-what-happens-next-in-the-tax-debate-three-scenarios