Leaked Cuba memo to raise eyebrows

* NONE of the following is confirmed so some skepticism is require - is the note I received with this list

Leaked Cuba memo to raise eyebrows

From Saul Landau and Nelson P. Valdes

A recently retired military intelligence officer submitted this memo to his former commander (Southcom) -- copies to other appropriate agencies. Obama Administration officials ignored it. “Cuba is not on our agenda,” one said. One official surreptitiously mailed us a copy, which we share.

“The Cuban government has announced it will lay off 500,000 “superfluous” state workers. Our sources predict at least another 500,000 will get pink-slipped before the end of 2011.

“Such news should ring alarm bells in Florida and Washington. Havana could encourage – without formally acknowledging it to its newly unemployed population – a migration northward rather than face possible unrest on the island. If the Cuban government tried to stop migration, we do not think Cuba’s police or military would fire on the population, even if their commanders ordered it.

“This hypothetical scenario could force our President into a situation where he had little choice but to order military intervention -- not a welcome event at this precarious time.

“One preemptive scenario suggests Washington renew the previous Administration’s warning: discourage Cuban attempts to release their “excess” populations northward by threatening a U.S. Navy seizure of some Cuban territory on which it would relocate the sea-bound migrants. Mixing any Cuban balseros with the inmates at Guantanamo could spark an international crisis of monumental proportion.

“Our intelligence group devised these scenarios in response to the current Administration’s denial or lack of planning. In the absence of solid assessment, I share some analysis done by our intel group on “recent changes in Cuba,” which should have come from the U.S. Interest Section in Havana. Instead of submitting useful information or analysis of events our mission in Cuba, under instructions from State, has cultivated and support “dissidents”; including some state security moles and repeats publicly mindless slogans like Cuba should allow citizens unrestricted rights to travel (We have informed Havana not to take this literally – or else). Indeed, if Havana complied, a massive migration might ensue. The impact? Officially, south Florida reports a 12.8% (September 2010) rate of unemployment; unofficially the rate is higher. Imagine 500,000 Cubans arriving on leaky boats, vying for scarce jobs and scant area welfare resources. Possible riots and unrest could erupt, with negative impact on tourism and outside investors. Difficult to calculate the inherent political difficulties such disturbances would cause.

“Considering the Administration’s virtually unchanged policies toward the island (from the Bush Administration, except for allowing Cuban-Americans unlimited visiting rights), two possible sequences of events emerge: massive migration to south Florida would compel the Administration to distribute new “marielitos” elsewhere; few states will willingly accept large numbers of Cubans given the depressed employment situation; the other scenario foresees upheaval in the island.

“If instability arises, as former Secretary of State Colin Powell envisaged as possible, from south Florida armed exiles with impressive amounts of weapons might attempt to launch commando/sabotage attacks; even small invasions. Washington would find such a situation unacceptable. Indeed, illegal movement of Cubans in either direction through the Straits of Florida poses and ought to be assessed as security threats.

“The embargo, imposed 50 years ago by President Eisenhower, has damaged the island, albeit fallen short of causing regime change. A previous report noted, “Since the breakup of the former Soviet Union, the political system and economic infrastructure of Cuba have significantly deteriorated, a situation that will only further increase in seriousness and import for the United States in the remaining years of this century.” (Gen. John J. Sheehan, USMC, commander in chief, U.S. Atlantic Command, Senate Armed Services Committee, February 14, 1995 http://www.defense.gov/speeches/speech.aspx?speechid=834)

“The shortages and ensuing economic breakdowns have eroded the Cuban national psyche. Decades of absence of important material goods and services has caused biological and psychological deprivation, shared feelings of impotence and even depression.

“Cuban leaders manage an economy without access to key external inputs and financial resources. They must also deal with a shortage/corruption cycle, which further undermines morale.

“After the USSR collapsed and Cuba lost its beneficent trading partners, the embargo’s impact swelled. Some analysts predicted regime change. But Castro had exported his enemies – or we had imported them.

“Cuba does not constitute a military threat, but the possibility of mass migration and civil strife demand creative and constructive engagement. Unfortunately, policy-makers have responded by worsening making Cuba’s economic condition -- severing Havana’s banking ties with banks even remotely connected to U.S. banks. As of March 31, 2012, Cuban banks will lose access to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication because SWIFT contains embargoed U.S. technologies.

“Policy recommendations: lift restrictions on Americans traveling to Cuba; expand cultural, social, and economic exchanges. These stabilizing measures would increase Cuban income and provide for jobs. Press for U.S. aid to individually owned farms or co-ops as signs of U.S. support for Cuba’s privatizing reforms -- moves turning Cuba away from socialism.



“This strategy would relieve destabilizing tensions and promote regional security. Acting boldly might preempt the parade of horrors outlined above and allow our attention to focus on Caribbean basin difficulties (hurricanes, earthquakes, cholera, narcotics trafficking and criminal volatility).

“Collaboration and cooperation with Cuba would contribute to regional stability. China has announced it will invest $6 billion in Cuba’s oil refinery. Time is of the essence.”

The rationale for them, not so much. But being inside the gubment, you have to drink the KoolAid to get any traction at all, so maybe that explains that.

Or written by a very junior official practicing his idiocy skills. The Cubans are about to lay off hundreds of thousands of government workers. But the island lacks the resources to make the rafts and boats to get to Florida. Raul Castro is going to have to deal with the consequences.

:rofl:

Good grief. It's all so sad.

What DO they get in those diplomatic pouches, anyway?

...as I've warned about, reading some of the Wikileak cables we've seen. You've got to pay attention to who is writing to whom, what their motives are, what they are leaving out, etc.

This memo is written by a "recently retired military intelligence officer" to his Southcom commander. Who is this person? What have his politics been? What were his activities in "military intelligence"? He could be a psyops officer? A dirty trickster? A torturer? An assassin? A trainer of hit squads? And why is he writing to this particular commander?

He mentions "our intelligence group." So what is he doing now? He's got a private intelligence business--mercenaries for hire, looking for a lucrative contract from the taxpayers via the Pentagon? This may be the key paragraph, as to that...

“If instability arises, as former Secretary of State Colin Powell envisaged as possible, from south Florida armed exiles with impressive amounts of weapons might attempt to launch commando/sabotage attacks; even small invasions. Washington would find such a situation unacceptable. Indeed, illegal movement of Cubans in either direction through the Straits of Florida poses and ought to be assessed as security threats."

So they're organizing "commando attacks"--to bust some funds loose out of the Pentagon larder? Planned instability? Planned trouble-making? His mention of Colin Powell is laugh. Who would trust that jerk any more, who played both sides of the fence, and lied through his teeth at the UN? Well, obviously the writer of this memo thinks the name will resonate with his reader. This is the Colin Powell cabal at the Pentagon?

Our penman evidently has banking interests and is trying to get a foothold in Cuba. The banking embargo seems to nettle him particularly.

"Acting boldly might preempt the parade of horrors outlined above...". Gawd.

"The shortages and ensuing economic breakdowns have eroded the Cuban national psyche."

The "Cuban psyche" has seemed quite buoyant to me, through all their troubles. And they are on a roll now, trading with all sorts of leftist countries that have declared their independence from Washington. I think this guy is an asshole, trying to drum up business and position himself for Bush Junta II, to be Diebolded into office in 2012. He's got a lot of company in the rabid Miami mafia and their political lackeys in Washington--salivating over the Puke Congress--with evildoers like John Negroponte and Roger Noriega itching for another go at Latin American bloodshed and mayhem, which they've already started in Honduras.

Can you imagine how traumatic it must be for a committed communist to admit the system doesn't work and roll back his revolution, allowing the emergence of an entrepeneur class which is able to hire workers and exploit their labor? I wouldn't say Cuba is on a roll. Cuba is evolving away from communism. It's amazing, isn't it? That singer who said the country needed less revolution and more evolution sure hit the spot.