Comment no. 3 (answer to JVS, comment no. 2)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x319635I stumbled upon a Christian Science Monitor article (mentioned at the bottom of my comment there) that gives some hints that my guess is right, that Preval rebelled at something, likely to do with the $9 billion in aid that the U.S. is controlling, that's why the U.S. bumped his guy out of the election; Preval then contacted Aristide (part retaliation, partly to fulfill his promise to Haitians to bring Aristide back); the CIA was listening in and got "Baby Doc" to Haiti first, as warning/prevention. Or, alternative scenario (to the same point): Preval contacted Aristide (the result of a gradual buildup of resentment and insults--nothing specific), the CIA was listening, and
that's why his candidate was bumped out, and "Baby Doc" was brought in--and now that it's clear that the U.S. ain't gonna be Preval/Celestin's friend, Preval's going through with it--is going to give Aristide a re-entry visa or valid passport.
The CSM bit says that Preval is out of favor cuz he's been maneuvering "behind the scenes." (LOL!) (And CSM buys it--God, they are so clueless.) (What could Preval have been maneuvering "behind the scenes" to DO, that would cause the U.S. to fall out with their puppet?)
Aristide very wisely wants a valid passport or re-entry visa, so he can't be stopped at the U.S. military-controlled airport. ("Baby Doc" didn't have one and just breezed right in--but that won't likely be the case with Aristide, who, unlike "Baby Doc," has harmed no one and is hugely popular.) He wants it to be a formal reception, no slip-up's, no treachery and no repression--cuz he's probably going to be met by a million cheering people.
If he returns, the U.S. plan to elect their "neo-liberal" candidate (Mirlande Manigat--"capitalism with a friendly face"), with only 25% of the Haitian people voting, and their "OAS" charade, is over and done with. There will have to be a new election, with Aristide and/or his Lavalas party on the ballot. (It is simply unconscionable that Lavalas--the majority party in Haiti--was banned from the election.) Preval probably sees himself as the "father" of this return--will probably angle to stay on, until the new election--and, if he can pull this off, all his incompetence and probable corruption will be forgiven/forgotten. (He'll land on his feet.) (--won't have to use that red helicopter.)
I was thinking about the exclusion of Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Uruguay, El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua--all with leftist (pro-clean elections) governments--and all other Latin American/Caribbean countries, except Jamaica--from Hillary's 'OAS' election team, which was made up of six people from the U.S., France and Canada (and the one Jamaican), and how the landscape of Latin American has changed, since the Bushwhacks ousted Aristide in 2004. Aristide has a lot more allies and potential allies now than he did back then. Why none of them were on an alleged 'OAS' election team is a mystery. But WE CAN BE SURE that they are watching this closely. Are they prepared to step in, with a REAL election team? Is somebody negotiating with Hillary (Dilma Rousseff maybe--who's got UN peacekeepers in Haiti?)
WHAT is going to happen with the $9 BILLION in U.S.-controlled aid, if Haiti takes a turn toward independence, and brings Aristide back as unifier or president, if the U.S. cannot be pressured to agree? The U.S. can cause horror and mayhem in Haiti (and has already botched the reconstruction). That is my fear about "Baby Doc"'s return, that it is INTENDED to cause horror and mayhem (or, at the very least, to threaten it). The CIA, the Pentagon and other entities (U.S. mercenaries) have had plenty of time and power to thoroughly infiltrate Haiti. Would Obama/Clinton dare do this? The Scumbag Congress certainly would and that's who Obama/Clinton have breathing down their necks.
Dicey situation.
Honduras is not a hopeful precedent (the last fraudulent election that Hillary arranged). And even if she learned a lesson with that--that the new Latin America will not bend over for that kind of crap any more, and needs to be treated with more respect--will the Scumbags behind the Scumbag Congress allow Haiti to assert its independence and have a real democracy? And will they not sabotage it, as the Bush Junta did, when they complete their Scumbag design and put the next Scumbag Junta in the White House?
The more I learn about this stuff, the more I am amazed that Cuba has survived, with a decent, independent, viable government in tact.