In the PPP poll they have Obama approval/disapp. at 44/43. Isn't that really low for Mass? That is

lower than his national average. Did they only interview teabaggers? Even Rasmussen has his approval nationally higher than that. And you know the south brings down his national numbers so I would think in Mass his approval should at least be well over 50%.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MA_117468963846.pdf

Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance? If you approve,
press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re
not sure, press 3.
Approve .......................................................... 44%
Disapprove...................................................... 43%
Not Sure.......................................................... 13%

Everything Ive read has shown that Obama remains popular, even as her numbers have gone down.

* Republicans are excited Brown might win and thus more likely to answer their phone and listen to political messages -possibly be invited to take a survey - when the phone is practically ringing off the hook with such calls. I suspect they'd be particularly enthused to participate in a poll and tell the world they're voting for Brown, to help build the sense he has unstoppable momentum. These folks certainly will vote but there's no upside in Brown's election-day numbers compared to the pre-election poll estimates.

* Democrats may be demoralized and scared after several weeks of Coakley campaign missteps and bad headlines. They may not be all that eager to pick up the phone for political calls. They also might be more skeptical of or angry about polls since they've been such downers for Coakley and President Obama lately, and thus, I would speculate, more likely to take a pass if invited to participate in one. None of that means these folks are less likely to vote, though - by now any sentient Democratic-leaning voter will know Coakley needs all their votes, and what's at stake. They might not be happy about how Coakley has run her campaign but they'll still be motivated to vote by a desire to deny a Republican the chance to do serious harm to Obama's agenda from Ted Kennedy's old seat. Obama is in Massachusetts today to remind them of exactly that (not that they're necessarily all that enthused about him at this point, either).

Of course, truly independent or "swing" voters are another vital factor, and if Brown wins enough of them he could overcome the inherent Democratic advantage in Massachusetts. But I'd think enthusiasm, or lack of it, would be more of an issue among stronger partisans.

In pollster speak, what this boils down to is "differential non-response," where one candidate's supporters are more likely than the other's to take a survey. It's suspected to be a big reason why exit polls in recent years have tended to overstate support for Democratic candidates. In the Massachusetts special Senate election I suspect it's inflating the Republican's poll numbers. Coakley has room to outperform the polls Tuesday even if her natural base is motivated by nothing more than fear of what would happen if her opponent pulls off an historic upset.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/mokrzycki_are_ma_senate_polls.php

Obama's approval in CT in the latest Quinnipiac poll for the upcoming Senate race there has Obama's approval at 55%. In Mass, it is probably higher as Mass tends to be even more liberal then CT. http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1412

That is remarkably low for Massachusetts

I doubt Pres. Obama has an approval rating of around 50% nation wide and can only muster a +1 at 44% in MA.

nt

Nationally, he's at 53% according to the WAPO new poll.....
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=433&topic_id=131516&mesg_id=131516

that wouldn't make sense that he's 10% below the national average....

Dropping from 60's to 40's in such a short period of time throws the reliability of this poll into serious doubt.

So they're sampling the people more enthusiastic about turning out, which includes more disapprovals, more Republicans, more right-leaning independents.

The Suffolk Poll has his approval at 48-43

The Inside Medford Poll has his approval at 47-42

However, 57% approve of the job he is doing according to the Rasmussen poll which has Coakley up 2%

approval nationwide? Wouldn't it have to be higher in Blue states like Mass. than the national average to compensate for asswipe states like mine (Georgia) where his numbers are quite a bit lower than the national average?

Among registered voters, his number is probably a lot higher, but among this group of voters according to a few polls, he only gets in the forties.

can't be compared to other off year or special elections anymore, because of all the attention and GOTV efforts it has received in the last few days. It's almost comparable to a presidential election year. The Boston Herald reported today that a turnout of up to 70% could be expected.

out. I don't give a shit if they are not dancing a jig out to the polling place like Brown's voters are apparently. Just come out.
I hope PPP is using a model that is too Brown friendly.
If Democratic voters have become that apathetic the midterms will be a bloodbath.

to fight like the GOP and get off their rear ends and vote, the GOP can retake the House, it will be a very small majority(220-222) seats, but still,
they will stop all legislation at that point.

That means they are predicting that the voters who come out to vote will be slightly more negative of Obama then the average national polls and the averages from Mass. It could be that the Repubs are very excited about turning a blue seat red and indies break Brown's way. However, they could be wrong and the Dem base really shows up and Brown needs a lot more indies to overcome Coakley because Mass has a voter advantage for the Dems (more registered Dems then Repubs). These pollsters all think the momentum is on Brown's side right now.

2/3 of them need to show up to put Coakley clearly over the top.
If the shoe were on the other foot, the GOP would come out in mass to stop a Liberal Democrat from taking one of their seats.

Obama's national approval is around 50%.
To make up the difference of negative numbers in the "red" areas, he must have a positive approval in the "blue" areas, such as Massachusetts.
He still has a 60% approval in CT.