"Five things to watch in Massachusetts"

Five things to watch in Massachusetts
By ALEX ISENSTADT & JOSH KRAUSHAAR

The stakes for Tuesday’s special Senate election in Massachusetts couldn’t be higher. At play: the Democrats’ 60-seat supermajority — and, potentially, the fate of President Barack Obama’s signature health care reform legislation.

But as Democrat Martha Coakley and Republican Scott Brown head into the rare mid-January race, just who will show up at the polls remains something of a mystery.

“Conventional wisdom is, the high turnout favors the Democrat. But in a special election, high turnout is volatile because you don’t know who’s showing up,” said Scott Ferson, a Democratic strategist in the state.

Making the vote even tougher to predict: the weather. Tuesday’s forecast calls for a mix of snow and rain, with temperatures in the low 30s.

To make some sense of the early returns, POLITICO put together a guide of five things to watch as the results come in, after polls close at 8 p.m.

Look at the South Shore
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To get a sense of whether Brown is winning the working-class vote, look no further than early returns from the heavily Democratic Irish Catholic South Shore, where Obama suffered significant drop-offs from John Kerry’s vote in 2004. Brown needs to carry the towns of Braintree and Weymouth, two Democratic strongholds that Obama barely held in 2008.

If Brown wins 55 percent in neighboring Quincy, which Obama carried by 18 points (58 percent to 40 percent), it would be devastating to the Coakley campaign.

Watch for signs of life from the Democratic machine
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Coakley needs around 35 percent turnout in those core areas (Springfield and Worcester), analysts estimate, with about a 50,000-to-60,000-vote margin in Boston and a 15,000-to-20,000-vote margin in Cambridge. One plugged-in Massachusetts Democratic strategist said he’s hoping for 40 percent turnout in the cities to feel good about Coakley’s chances — enough to offset what he expects to be a strong Brown performance in the suburbs.

The I-495 suburbs
Brown needs to win at least 55 percent of the vote in this area, particularly in high-growth places like Marlborough, Taunton and Haverhill — three towns that Romney carried by double digits in 2002 but Obama won in 2008. He’ll also need to rack up double-digit margins of victory in his home base around Wrentham and Foxborough.

The female vote
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The Massachusetts Democratic Party, keenly aware of the need to rally women to Coakley’s side, launched a blistering attack over the weekend, alleging that Brown wanted to turn away rape victims from hospitals.

If those tactics effectively rally women to the polls, it’s a good sign for Coakley. So take a close look at the composition of the electorate on election night. If women make up a clear majority, according to exit polls, Coakley may have an edge.

Kennedy’s impact
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Barnstable and Plymouth counties along Cape Cod are the places where Kennedy’s memory would most likely rescue Coakley in the eleventh hour. If she wins those counties — bellwether areas that Obama won narrowly in 2008 — it is a good sign for her campaign.

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http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0110/31632.html