IN-Sen: Bayh Comfy; Hostettler Outperforms Coats

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (2/8-10, likely voters)

Evan Bayh (D-inc): 55
Dan Coats (R): 35
Undecided: 10

Evan Bayh (D-inc): 53
John Hostettler (R): 37
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±3.2%)

Looks like the Republicans aren't quite putting Indiana into highly competitive play the way they thought they would, with the entry of former Senator Dan Coats to the race. Coats not only trails Evan Bayh by 20, but my suspicions from yesterday were confirmed: long-forgotten establishment figure Coats doesn't match up against Bayh as well as ex-Rep. John Hostettler -- whose 12 years in the House (washed in with the wave in 1994, and washed out with the wave in 2006) revealed him as a quirky ultra-right-winger and an incompetent campaigner -- does.

Dan Coats' rollout as Senate candidate over the last week is already on track to be legendary in its badness, but I don't think that alone can account for these numbers. Much of it may be that, after 12 years out of the Senate (and 18 years since having run for anything), nobody remembers Coats; there are genuinely middle-aged people who may have lived in Indiana their whole lives and still never had a chance to vote for Coats. Coats (38/34 approval) is actually less-known than Rep. John Hostettler (40/33), who only represented 1/9th of the state but at least had the virtue of sticking his foot in his mouth often enough to make sure he got in the news. Meanwhile, while Bayh certainly isn't a favorite among the netroots, he's doing just fine at home, with 61/33 approvals. (UPDATE: In an attempt to change perceptions and get some footing in Indiana, Dan Coats is taking one for the team and actually... gasp... renting a house in Indianapolis.)

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/6386/insen-bayh-comfy-hostettler-outperforms-coats

I guess Indiana doesn't want Coats back.