How the Headlines Get the Polls Wrong About Obama and the Economy

Walter Shapiro
Published: 02/19/10

John Maynard Keynes, the 20th century's most influential economist, died in 1946 with his belief in massive government spending to lift a nation out of a deep downturn enshrined as mainstream orthodoxy. By 1971, even Richard Nixon was famously declaring, "We are all Keynesians now." Barack Obama tried to follow the precepts of Keynesian economics with his $787 billion stimulus package, even as liberal economists like Paul Krugman warned that the new president's plan was not ambitious enough to ward off the worst of the recession.

But in recent weeks -- with unemployment stuck near 10 percent and the $1.6 trillion budget deficit spreading panic in Washington -- Keynes has become about as popular as Dick Cheney at a human rights dinner. A statistic ripped out of the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll showing that only six percent of Americans believe that the stimulus has created "a substantial number of new jobs" became cable TV fodder for foes of big government. Even Obama himself sounded apologetic Wednesday as he gamely tried to celebrate the first anniversary of congressional passage of his economic recovery plan: "It certainly wasn't a politically easy decision to make for me or for the members of Congress who supported it -- because, let's face it, no large expenditure is ever that popular, particularly at a time when we're also facing a massive deficit."

A close reading of seven separate national polls conducted this month suggests that funeral orations for Keynesian ideas and government job creation programs are not only premature, but probably unnecessary. Without minimizing deep fears of a long-term recession (a CNN/Opinion Research Poll found that 83 percent of registered voters describe economic conditions as "poor"), Americans still believe that Washington can help the nation recover from dire straits.

Nothing seems more devastating on the surface for Obama than that poll number suggesting that less than 1-in-16 (6 percent) of all adults believe that the economic stimulus package has created jobs. But what most news reports neglected to mention was that in response to the same multiple choice question in the Times/CBS Poll, another 41 percent of all adults said they believe that the stimulus "will create jobs, but hasn't yet." What this means is that 47 percent of all adults (a number almost identical to Obama's approval rating) believe that the stimulus has or will create a large number of jobs. This is not a ringing popular endorsement of Obama-economics (or Keynes, for that matter), but neither is it a repudiation.

http://www.politicsdaily.com/2010/02/19/how-the-headlines-get-the-polls-wrong-about-obama-and-the-econom/

Shapiro goes on the quote more poll #'s that find that people are worried about the deficit but not as angry as one would think.

Can't R at this point.

:kick:

and whether people believe or not the last eight years of pure unadulterated "supply side" economics ushered in an era of unprecedented prosperity for our country and its citizens? I'd like to see the results of THAT survey! With Bush in the WH and the Republicans dominating Congress for six whole years pushing supply-side economics, what excuses/explanations do the Republicans have for explaining why the economy never did what they said it would do when they had full control of all branches of government, as well as the "liberal media?" :shrug:

Do people want to go back to being told that only if we cut taxes on wealthy Americans (i.e. corporations) that they will (at some pre-determined) time shower the rest of us with that wealth and fill the streets with sunshine, lollipops, and rainbows.....? :eyes: