IL-Gov: Brady Posts a Big Lead Over Quinn

Public Policy Polling (4/1-5, Illinois voters, no trend lines):

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 33
Bill Brady (R): 43
Undecided: 24
(MoE: ±4%)

The scariest number, though, is this one: Pat Quinn's job approval rating is 25-53. Those are some true toilet bowl numbers. It'd be an amazing feat for an incumbent, even in a blue-leaning state like Illinois, to survive in the face of such discontent. Indeed, PPP has even gone so far as to coin "The Corzine Line", pointing out that Jon Corzine's -23% job approval ended up giving him a defeat by a 4% spread in last year's New Jersey gubernatorial election.

I know that some observers believed that Quinn got an easy ride with the primary win of the sharply conservative Brady. And, yes, Quinn's lucky that he's not dealing with the Illinois equivalent of Chris Christie, but it'll still be pretty hard for him to gin up enthusiasm among his own base -- especially with the extremely underwhelming Alexi Giannoulias sharing space on the ballot as the party's nominee for U.S. Senate. Brady is already cleaving off 19% of the Democratic vote, and a further 28% is undecided. Quinn may be able to turn off those Democratic voters from Brady with blistering attack ads, but at this point I just have to wonder if those same voters that Quinn needs would just as easily decide to stay home.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/6710/ilgov-brady-posts-a-big-lead-over-quinn

they want to do what they have done in VA..

Brady could be a tough sell ultimately.

1. We pay the *lowest* top marginal state income tax rate in the country (except for those nine states with NO income tax because they are fortunate enough to be a touristy, sit on an ocean of oil, or be so small that they live off of federal welfare).

2. We have the highest sales/property tax combination precisely BECAUSE we have such a low income tax rate. So let's move from regressive taxation to progressive taxation.

Tell the folks in Chicago and downstate his tax plan is to shift the tax burden from the relatively poorer people downstate and in the city onto the wealthy surbanites who largely despise both downstaters and Chicagoans.

...until he started running some very effective ads.

I don't think Mr. Brady will win in November. I am not sure, though. Quinn isn't very popular and the state has Blagojevich-hangover, but this is not a very red state, and Brady's pretty far out there on the right.

Judy Barr-Topinka would have crushed Blagojevich in 2006 if she had not come off like an insane jerk. Prior to her first televised debate that year, she was viewed favorably by many Illinoisans. But she was absolutely savage on Blagojevich, completely ruining her nice-lady image. My point: people in this state do not embrace candidates who are, for want of a better word, obviously mean people. The closer people look, the less they'll like Brady.