Ward Research for the Honolulu Advertiser (4/23-28, likely voters):
Charles Djou (R): 36
Ed Case (D): 28
Colleen Hanabusa (D): 22
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±5.2%)
To recap, this is the third poll we've seen of this race over the past month. A "leaked" DCCC internal pegged the race at 32 Djou, 32 Case, 27 Hanabusa, while an R2K poll from two weeks ago have Djou a 32-29 lead over Case, with Hanabusa close behind at 28%.
Since then, the DCCC has poured in nearly $250K on media buys against Djou, but we've seen no evidence of their efforts yielding any positive results for Team Blue. Hanabusa herself has opened fire on Case's right-wing record in a new ad that began airing this weekend. If there's ever been a perfect storm for a Republican to win this seat in freak circumstances with a bare plurality of the vote, this is it.
http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/6826/hi01-charles-in-charge