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Edited on Wed Dec-02-09 04:00 AM by jeanpalmer
that explained how the Taliban did that very thing in Kunduz, which is in the north. There, the Pashtun are only 50% of the population. The Taliban left Kunduz in 2001 as we moved in, but in the last year or so, have come back in force. So they can lie low for a long time, but it doesn't mean they've given up. Eighteen months should be a piece of cake for them, now that they know the withdrawal schedule.
But regarding "fading into the countryside," they don't have to fade into it. They control it. If you believe media reports, part of the new strategy is to withdraw troops to the urban centers and apparently concede about 97% of the country to the Taliban -- because the country is too big and can't be controlled with a force of 150,000 soldiers, and the countryside is too sparsely populated to make it worthwhile to put troops there. So the Taliban really only have to wait for the allies to leave the remaining 3% of the country.
I doubt they'll cease acts of aggression against the occupiers. If they stop everything, they run the risk of losing momentum. Plus they like to fight. My guess is they'll conduct operations just like they do now. In the longer run, the Taliban will win and be in charge, whether we leave in 2, 10 or 50 years. I don't see any force that can stand up to them once we're gone. Karzai certainly won't. He's a puppet with no base. He'll take the first flight out, once we leave. It will be a repeat of the exit from Viet Nam.
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