Jobs Numbers and the People They Represent

I was talking to Stephen and he told me that rental and lease sales have improved, that there’s a pent-up demand out there for new equipment and you’ve added workers over the last few months. And Stephen said if things keep on going well, he’ll add more in the months ahead.

We’re hearing more and more stories like that all across America. A lot of businesses were hit hard during this downturn, but they’re starting to hire again. Workers who were laid off, they’re starting to get their jobs back. Companies that were almost forced to close their doors are making plans to expand and invest in new equipment.

And this progress is reflected in the monthly jobs reports that we get each month. We received one today. In May, the economy added 431,000 jobs. (Applause.) Now, this is the fifth month in a row that we’ve seen job gains. And while we recognize that our recovery is still in its early stages and that there are going to be ups and downs in the months ahead -- things never go completely in a smooth line -- this report is a sign that our economy is getting stronger by the day.

Now, I want to emphasize that most of these jobs this month that we’re seeing in the statistics represent workers who’ve been hired to complete the 2010 census. So these are temporary jobs that are only going to last until the fall, and that may be reflected in future jobs reports. But even if you put those temporary jobs aside, there’s no doubt that we saw another month of private sector job growth. And that is obviously critical because when businesses are hiring again, people start spending again. That, in turn, gives businesses more and more incentive to grow.

Now, this doesn’t mean that the recession is over for the millions of Americans who are still out of work, or the millions more who are still struggling to make ends meet. No words, no statistics, can take away the pain and the anxiety that a family feels because of this downturn. That can only be relieved with a steady paycheck and the security that a steady job brings.

What these numbers do mean, though, is that we’re moving in the right direction. The economic policies that we put in place are working. An economy that was shrinking at a scary rate when I was sworn in as President has now been growing for three consecutive quarters. We were losing 750,000 jobs a month during the winter of last year. We’ve now added jobs for six out of the last seven months.

Five reasons the employment numbers are worse than they seem


President Obama and Treasury Secretary Geithner were trying to putting on a happy face, but the markets weren't buying. They have tumbled worldwide since the latest payroll data.

But instead of overreacting, the markets may only just be waking up to the real bad news.

1. Look out ahead.

We already know that when you strip out the short-term Census jobs, May's jobs growth was a pitiful 41,000. But what people haven't realized is that the leading indicators for June are even worse. TrimTabs Investment Research Inc. tracks the real-time jobs picture by monitoring income tax deposits at the Treasury. And these have suddenly started falling. Based on the latest data, the firm predicts the economy will actually lose up to 200,000 jobs, net, in June. "The big news is that we have a job loss of about 200,000 coming in June," says Trim Tabs' Madeline Schnapp, "and the market isn't ready for it."

It's not just the stock market. You can bet that the administration -- and the country -- isn't ready either. Remember, we need to create about 100,000 just to keep up with population growth.

2. One and a half million people have 'disappeared'?

The government says the unemployment rate "edged down" to 9.7% -- keeping it below the politically sensitive 10% level.

But that's only because about one and a half million people have just, miraculously "disappeared" from the official labor force.

A million and a half people disappearing? It sounds like a crazy conspiracy theory. But there it is, buried in the fine print of the government's own data.

From May 2009 to May 2010, the U.S. "civilian non-institutional population" of prime working age -- 20 to 64 -- expanded by one and a half million, 180.5 million to 182 million.

Yet over the same period the official tally of the labor force over age 20 held steady at just 148 million.

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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-ways-the-jobs-numbers-are-worse-than-bad-2010-06-08