Byrd's Replacement

What are the rules in WV? What are the chances of holding the seat in November?

so what does that say. That the Democrats will win the seat.

So it's no sure thing, and we're not likely to get a progressive.

On edit: It went McCain +13% in 2008.

Time

only three people have held the title of US Senator from West Virginia. I think it's safe to say that conditions might have changed over the last half century, and that might have an influence on what happens. The re-election of Robert Byrd was just as much about keeping seniority in the Senate for WV as it was about anything.

From 538.com:

Byrd's current term expires on January 3, 2013. Under West Virginia state law on handling Senate vacancies, "if the vacancy occurs less than two years and six months before the end of the term, the Governor appoints someone to fill the unexpired term and there is no election". Otherwise, Manchin would appoint an interim replacement, and an special election would be held in November to determine who held the seat in 2011 and 2012.

In other words, we are within a week of the threshold established by West Virginia law. If a vacancy were to be declared on July 3rd or later, there would not be an election to replace Byrd until 2012. If it were to occur earlier, there could potentially be an election later this year, although there might be some ambiguities arising from precisely when and how the vacancy were declared.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

From the electoral vote site:

"It is a pity for the Democrats that Byrd could not hang on for another week. Had he lived until July 3, 2 years and 6 months before the end of his term, then governor Joe Manchin (D-WV) would have appointed a successor to serve out the rest of his term. But since there are more than 2 years and 6 months left in his term, Manchin will appoint an interim successor but there will be a special election in November to fill the seat starting in January. While West Virginia tends to vote Republican in presidential elections, the other senator, Jay Rockefeller, and Gov. Manchin are both Democrats. Whether the Democrats can hold the seat depends a lot on who the candidates are. Manchin himself is probably the strongest candidate if he decides to run".

www.electoral-vote.com

There seems to be some ambiguity in the law
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/sen-robert-byrd-dead-at-92.html#comments