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Holy moly-Dem surge in Gallup generic congressional ballot preference poll-up by 6 points 49-43!

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Politics_Guy25 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-10 05:06 PM
Original message
Holy moly-Dem surge in Gallup generic congressional ballot preference poll-up by 6 points 49-43!
Edited on Mon Jul-19-10 05:06 PM by Politics_Guy25
Link here. Just out:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/127439/Election-2010-Key-Indicators.aspx

Dems-49%
GOP-43%

Dems haven't had a lead this large in months.

Maybe this is the Obama effect taking hold, i.e., his campaign efforts and blasting the GOP.

6 points is larger than the lead they had in Gallup's final 2006 midterm poll.

This is awesome news and tonic for someone like me who is feeling very down.
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phleshdef Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-10 05:07 PM
Response to Original message
1. Saying no to everyone and shafting the unemployed isn't getting the Republicans anywhere.
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livetohike Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-10 05:07 PM
Response to Original message
2. Glad you posted this because we know we won't hear it on
the MSM (unless those numbers were reversed of course).
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KingFlorez Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-10 05:09 PM
Response to Original message
3. That's fantastic
It's exactly where we need to be right now. Hopefully, we can maintain a lead for the next few months.
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babylonsister Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-10 05:09 PM
Response to Original message
4. People waking up, realizing how the rethugs are sabotaging
this country? I sure hope so. Bravo anyway!
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tridim Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-10 05:09 PM
Response to Original message
5. UI is killing them
It's one of the most blatantly heartless actions (or lack of) that I've ever witnessed. It has to be doing major damage.
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CTyankee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-10 05:14 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. Agreed. Even the MSM is giving comparisons between UI and tax cuts for the rich.
Mike Pence was just on Tweety doing it!

Chickens coming home to roost...
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tridim Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-10 05:18 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. I just can't figure out why they think it's a winner.
Maybe this is just the nexus of pure political stupidity?

If Pence is still using it, they must think there is a silver lining. But what?
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CTyankee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-10 06:36 PM
Response to Reply #7
19. I think it'll be gone soon. It's such a loser. I'm not worried. nt.
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whathehell Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-10 05:19 PM
Response to Original message
8. Yaaayy......Take THAT MSM repuke enablers!! n/t
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monmouth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-10 05:20 PM
Response to Original message
9. Joey the Scar will be in a bad mood tomorrow a.m. for sure..LOL...n/t
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PCIntern Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-10 06:03 PM
Response to Reply #9
14. If he's sober...
if I had an employee who missed as many Mondays as he does, he'd be gone with the wind...
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monmouth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-10 06:09 PM
Response to Reply #14
16. I think that's included in his contract as he lives in the Panhandle and
flies home on weekends.
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PCIntern Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-10 07:39 PM
Response to Reply #16
24. I heard that and I STILL think he's a drunken SOS who
has trouble getting out of bed on Mondays...He has to have a day to sober up.
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monmouth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-10 07:43 PM
Response to Reply #24
25. Haha, you could be right...n/t
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karynnj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-10 05:32 PM
Response to Original message
10. Could be the unemployment extension
This is clear, simple and very easy to understand. The Republicans for over a month have kept people suffering the most in this economy from getting the money that they deserve. They paid into the unemployment system for years in many cases.
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Uzybone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-10 05:45 PM
Response to Original message
11. Nonsense...we all know that Democrats are not energized and have failed
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quiet.american Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-10 05:45 PM
Response to Original message
12. Amen! Tonic for me, too! Awesome! nt
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saracat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-10 05:49 PM
Response to Original message
13.  Its the unemployment benefits stupid. But we need to do more ton win.
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Politics_Guy25 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-10 06:04 PM
Response to Reply #13
15. Why does the GOP say no?
They say no because they think that their only way to win is for President Obama not to pass anything so that they can say that he sits around, does nothing and has failed. That's their ridiculous strategy. lol.
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mzmolly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-10 06:14 PM
Response to Original message
17. :D
Just saw this at Gallup. YEAH! :toast:
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Guy Whitey Corngood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-10 06:26 PM
Response to Original message
18. Great news. Will it help them grow a pair of balls/ovaries? One can only dream. nt
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mikekohr Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-10 06:47 PM
Response to Original message
20. Eeeeecellant!
?
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DCBob Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-10 06:55 PM
Response to Original message
21. Tide is turning..
lets keep it going!
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Kind of Blue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-10 06:56 PM
Response to Original message
22. A tonic is the perfect way to put it.
Thanks for posting!
KnR
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-10 07:30 PM
Response to Original message
23. I bet it has to do with the RWers REPEATEDLY siding with the rich and big business,
showing how they have nothing but hollow soundbites about reducing the deficit with NO examples of what they'd cut and how they'd do it.
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smalll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-10 07:56 PM
Response to Original message
26. Sorry to rain on this parade -- that's an "A" poll, not even a "RV" poll, let alone a "LV" one --
Edited on Mon Jul-19-10 08:03 PM by smalll
This is not a poll of "likely voters" or even "registered voters" --- it's a poll of all "adults" -- meaning anyone 18 or over whom they contact. Not registered, never been registered? No problem! Included!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-901.html

Often not a "likely voter" -- maybe because you voted just ONCE in your life - in 2008 -- because as a member of one of President Obama's niche constiuencies, you got swept into the glamor, coolness, or historicity of the whole thing -- and are certainly not likely to vote in some square-ass "mid-term" -- hell, you may not even be likely to show up for your OWN "mid-term" if the party in the dorms was especially fun the night before!

Live by cool, die by cool.

Here's ALL the "all adults" polls I could find on RealClearPolitics, generic congressional ballot, back to October of last year:

Gallup 7/12 - 7/18 1535 A 43 49 Democrats +6
Time 7/12 - 7/13 1003 A 42 43 Democrats +1
USA Today/Gallup 6/11 - 6/13 1014 A 43 48 Democrats +5
National Journal/FD 4/22 - 4/26 1200 A 35 39 Democrats +4
ABC News/Wash Post 10/15 - 10/18 1004 A 39 51 Democrats +12

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Dawgs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-10 08:07 PM
Response to Reply #26
27. Doesn't change the fact that Dems got a big bounce.
:hi:
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golfguru Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 12:37 AM
Response to Reply #26
32. Rasmussen poll is of Likely Voters only - LV
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Jennicut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-10 08:24 PM
Response to Original message
28. Read this:
"Since 1950, Gallup's final generic ballot measure, based on likely voters, has closely matched the total percentage of votes cast nationally for Democratic and Republican candidates in all 435 U.S. House races -- a statistic that bears a predictable relationship to the number of House seats won by each party. Gallup does not screen for likely voters until closer to Election Day, but historically, Republicans' turnout advantage in midterm elections changes the Republican-Democrat gap by five percentage points in the GOP's favor. Thus, if these numbers held through Election Day, the two parties would be nearly tied at the ballot box, with possibly a slight advantage for the Democrats."

http://www.gallup.com/poll/141440/Democrats-Jump-Six-Point-Lead-Generic-Ballot.aspx

I don't think this is going to be a pro-GOP year. It will be an anti-incumbent year, and there are more Dem incumbents. I don't think we will lose the House or Senate.
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-10 09:36 PM
Response to Reply #28
29. Unemployment
Edited on Mon Jul-19-10 09:37 PM by ProSense
"Angry Ex Republican wrote ..."

Between their blatant attempts to destroy the economy for political gain and their strategy to campaign on Bush's legacy, which is responsible for destroying the economy, I get a sense that Republicans are truly morons.

:rofl:




Oops, meant this as a reply to the OP.

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BeyondGeography Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-10 11:46 PM
Response to Original message
30. Watching Matthews make Pence squirm now on the UI/Bush tax cut issue
A nightmare for them politically. And the best part is they really don't even see it.
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golfguru Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 12:35 AM
Response to Original message
31. Rasmussen has the opposite numbers :-(
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KingFlorez Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 12:41 AM
Response to Reply #31
33. Rasmussen is full of horse poo
It's wise not to be fooled by his skewed numbers.
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DonFelixSardaSalvany Donating Member (1 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 02:06 AM
Response to Original message
34. $20B Gulf resident vote buy-outs take effect.
"This is awesome news and tonic for someone like me who is feeling very down."

Fortunately, that's all it is.

"got a cash business and can't substantiate your income? Know a priest, sheriff, mayor, or someone who can vouch for you? You got a claim!" - Ken Feinberg (paraphrased somewhat)

I was one of you until I peered behind the veil.

Let me ask a question: when the President says "(the Bush era) tax cuts represent the largest spending increase...", despite what you may think about the responsibility of the rich toward the poor (we can agree they have a moral duty) and what role the state should have in the matter, don't you see the claim he's staking? He is saying that income is first the property of the state and that what you keep is "spending". I know some of you will hardly be alarmed by this, either dismissing the suggestion or--being enamored of the supposed virtues of Socialism--secretly elated, but I will tell the rest of you that it's shockingly naïve to overlook the implications. It's all fine and well to believe in the cult of personality the President inspires, but the state is not immune to the hazards of human agency and therefore can't be the solution to the hazards of human agency. Personally, I take offense to subversive language as I would a bald-faced lie, and it doesn't help that what's suggested here advantages only those who wield the power of the state and those content to be bought and sold by them to satisfy their envy or misguided sense of justice.
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Hekate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 04:03 AM
Response to Reply #34
35. Welcome to DU: enjoy your brief stay!
:kick: Bye-bye.
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vaberella Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 05:37 AM
Response to Reply #34
37. What are you talking about? Nothing of what you posted in the text matches your title.
Do you know what you're talking about?
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CTLawGuy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 05:53 AM
Response to Reply #34
38. a tax cut has the exact same effect on the budget as spending
if you're talking about deficits, there is no daylight between spending an extra $10 billion that you do not pay for with a $10 billion tax increase, and a $10 billion tax cut you do not account for with a $10 billion spending cut. Both add $10 billion to the deficit. The point is, tax cuts that aren't accounted for are no more fiscally responsible than spending increases not paid for.

No one thinks that income is "property of the state". Taxes are the price we pay for the services the government provides: police, national security, infrastructure, property rights, money, contracts, courts etc. If you don't like the level of taxes, you are free to vote in people who will reduce them and you are also free to move to any country that will have you.
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CTyankee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 07:33 AM
Response to Reply #38
40. Well said!
:thumbsup:
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old mark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 05:17 AM
Response to Original message
36. I think people are finally seeing the GOP for what it is and finding they don't like it...nt
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CTyankee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 07:38 AM
Response to Reply #36
41. The same "class warfare" stuff that might have worked in the past aren't
doing so well in our current dire economy. It's every person for themselves and people are desperate. Watching Pence wringing his hands over taxing wealthy people isn't going to set well with folks who are out of work and have no UI benefits. Being told they are lazy and "don't want to work" is salt in their wounds. I just hope the memory of what the repubs are doing will linger in people's minds, like after the Great Depression. Millions of staunch Democrats emerged from that experience...it's just too bad there has to be so much suffering in order to get some people straight on WHO is on their side...
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flpoljunkie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 06:30 AM
Response to Original message
39. Q. to Gallup: Will only those who are 'very enthusiastic' vote in November?
What about those who are just 'enthusiastic?" Why not just ask how likely they are to vote in November. Why the indirect question--even if it correlates?

Perhaps they did ask the question, and are not reporting it.
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brettjv Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-20-10 03:18 PM
Response to Original message
42. Dems/Obama could have made it even worse for Thugs, missed boat again IMHO
Edited on Tue Jul-20-10 03:21 PM by brettjv
They had a perfect opportunity with the GOP's little hissy-fit and feet-stamping over UI to make them look even stupider, and yet missed the opportunity (as usual) to drive in the stake.

Dems should have immediately abandoned the idea of funding this with debt at the Pugs behest.

They should have immediately and very publicly said, 'Okay, you're right. We will fund this extension by eliminating (insert obscure and obviously benefiting only the richest-of-the-rich tax break here) in 2011!"

This turns the tables immediately on the Pugs, and forces them to have to defend why it is that keeping this tax break for the wealthiest Americans is preferable to letting unemployed Americans starve to death.

Instead the Dems got put on the defensive and allowed GOP to trot out their hypocritical and tired 'Big Gubmint Spending is Out of Control!' meme. Maybe it didn't work that well, but Dems could have made it far worse for them.

This is EXACTLY what the Pugs would have done if the situation were reversed, and it took me all of about 1 minute to come up with. But apparently the Dems are too gutless and stupid to come up with something so obvious and sensible even with weeks to ponder it.

That, or their strategists just suck.
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