In Alaska, Murkowski is losing Republican primary

Miller May Pull Upset In Alaska -- Murkowski Trailing As Votes Still To Be Counted

Christina Bellantoni

Political prognosticators were surprised to wake up this morning and see Joe Miller holding a narrow lead of less than 3,000 votes over Sen. Lisa Murkowski in Alaska's Republican primary.

Unofficial returns as of this morning -- with 84.2 percent of precincts reporting -- showed Miller leading with 45,188 votes to Murkowski's 42,633 votes. That's Miller 51.5%-Murkowski 48.6%. What's more, the votes outstanding are from rural areas and 8,400 so-far-unreturned absentee ballots, so the final result won't be known for at least a week and might be undetermined until Sept. 8.

Whichever Republican wins, conventional wisdom takes a hit. As we reported, broad consensus both in Washington and Alaska was that Murkowski would win by a wide margin. If the senator pulls it off, it will be very close. There were few public polls, and they all showed Murkowski in the lead.

We took a look at several internal polls as well, which also showed her besting Miller. But Miller's folks sounded very confident this week in an interview with TPM. He had the backing of former Gov. Sarah Palin, conservative groups and the tea party.

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