Larsen (D) trails Koster 50-46 in WA 2nd (Survey USA)

This is a race that Cook just moved from "Likely D" to "Leans D" three days ago and the NYT rates as "Solid D"

I've seen no other polling from this district. Any locals who can flesh this race out? I seem to remember Larsen getting primary opposition.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=42ee4e0b-d36d-4eed-9d63-4ef5b18d41ce

this up. For instance this year almost every Survey USA poll has the GOP candidate doing best with 18-29 year olds. Now I grant they may not vote in huge numbers, but I doubt they are going to go GOP by the margins some of their polls indicate--including this one.

The problem comes when an otherwise reliable polling group gets that result consistently.

We have to at least ask ourselves whether those results might be correct. After all... the unemployment rate is driving a massive portion of our anticipated electoral problems right now... and what demographic group has the highest unemployment rate? I'm pretty sure it's that 18-29 year old group (who also have the least life experience to inform them which party has a history of taking actions that would help/hurt that situation).

And it isn't as if SUSA is the only polling firm delivering surprising news about youth support lagging our expectations. There's some disagreement over the severity (or of course whether they will turn out to vote)... but it's there.