Bill Mahar: The democrats will probably loose the Congress

OK Bill if you say so

And did he give his reasons why? Just wondering...not that I put any stock in what he says. ;-)

Maybe not, but I think they will too.

There very little chance of the Republicans winning less than 218 seats in the House. I have been looking at this daily and right now I'd estimate the chances of a House takeover is roughly 85%. Sorry, I don't believe in false hope, I am a realist, and looking at various data this I what I see.

To counter though, there is very little chance for a Republican majority in the Senate. I don't see them getting to 50/51 at all. 48 tops.

20-30 are tied. All they need is 5 more out of that bunch. Like I said, they "probably" will get that many. Maybe not, but likely.

Some people say "Congress" and mean just the House. Also, the OP said Bill meant the House only. Either way, the Senate will not turn.

likely we will lose the House. Hell, even Rachel Maddow said the same thing today on MtP.

And incidentally, it's "Maher."

and it's "lose" not "loose"

Look at the subtitle and all the 'Republicans win' subheadings - LOL

1948 was mostly door to door polling (not phone), not even in every state, and certainly not daily.

If so, too bad.

I wasn't referring to your post.

It's my understanding that how that Dewey headline happened is it was based on a "recent" poll taken at least two weeks before, and had failed to take into account the upwards direction of Truman from prior polls. Now we have daily polls, and we pay attention to momentum.

Notwithstanding, I can't help but think that that headline was also the result of monolithic thinking. It was the logical result; everyone said so; most wanted it so. The word on the street (at least everyone they talked to, who also was doing the monolithic thinking) was that Dewey would win. They wanted it so, therefore, it had to be so. But it wasn't.

It's harder for that to happen these days, I think.

Honestly, there is very little reason for him to have access to the public stage. He has no talent.

~

Independents who aren't political junkies have heard nothing but constant criticsm about Obama from the right, and from many progressive Democrats. After the whiners have spend two years poisoning the well, why should they be surprised, or care, that we might lose Congress?

They should be happy because now they'll really have somethnig to bitch about.

I'm often amazed at what he doesn't know. I like Bill, but he is arrogant and smug. He doesn't know for sure. He's buying into the conventional wisdom because he hears CNN declare that Dems will lose. And he's always on CNN so that says something right there...

long enough to make that statement?

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Your posts very often do what this one does, which is foist a set of words as having been said by another, but the words are never quotes, they are basically what you have inferred.
If you are going to make a stink about what any person said, it is time for you to learn to quote people. It is not fair to 'put it into your own words' and then argue with it. If you have issues with what Bill said, you need to quote what he said, and also, spell his name correctly.
And of course Maher is a comic. He is not a pundit. He sets up and delivers jokes for a living. He is not a pollster, or a 'statistician' he's a comedian. Making with the jokes.
Your posts lack context, specificity, accuracy and basic form. They are in essence gossip, and nothing else.

God, that just makes me automatically unrec a thread.


But, then again, knowing the history of the OP, the bad spelling trait kinda confirms my suspicions.

Hard-bitten, hard-drinking, tough as nails, no bullshit Union guys.


Don't know how gud ther speling skils are, tho.

just a funny little telltale sign.

I'm curious though, if any DU'er who's been here a long time and is respected did use a word out of context, what would you say it revealed about them?

Jimmy Carter, all these MSM "polls". . . . All this defeatist talk is not helping. It could become a self-fulfilling prophecy, depressing morale and GOTV efforts.