Will a primary challenge to President Obama in 2012 make it more likely a republican will win

the presidency?

that President and that party looses the White House. This is true back to Johnson.

Of course, there is likely to be someone with the ego to say they will defy history, and a lot of people who will vote for that person.

But a stiff primary challenge against Obama is a Republican wet dream.

In 1932, France challenged Hoover. France won the popular vote in all the GOP primaries yet lost the nomination to Hoover. Hoover lost.

In 1936, Upton Sinclair challenged FDR and got wiped out. FDR won.

In 1952, Kefauver challenged Truman and defeated him in New Hampshire. Truman withdrew.

In 1964, George Wallace challenged Lyndon Johnson in Wisconsin, Maryland and Indiana, getting around 30-35% of the vote in each state against stand-ins for Johnson. Johnson won.

In 1968, Johnson beat McCarthy in the New Hampshire popular vote, but lost the delegates. Johnson withdrew before losing to Mc Carthy in Wisconsin.

In 1972, Nixon was challenged by Mc Closkey and Ashbrook. Mc Closkey actually got one delegate. Nixon won.

In 1976, Reagan challenged Ford. Ford lost

In 1980, Kennedy challenged Carter. Carter lost

In 1992, Buchanan challenged Bush. Bush lost

Who could challenge Obama in 2012. Some talk about Feingold, but that would make as much sense as France's challenge to Hoover in 1932...

He might have a gadfly left challenger, but not anyone who can organize a serious campaign. Obama made progress on too many issues and most of the failures were the fault of the Senate. Major donors and organized left wing groups won't be foolish enough to back a losing challenger.

However, it's possible that a candidate to the right could raise the money to run a serious challenge. Evan Bayh? Nelson?

And our Corporate-Controlled Conservative Press will pass the "Bayh is a centrist" bullshit...

and thus it can only hurt our chances in the general, not help them.

and take the middle and some dems and if that happens the repubs could win no matter who is up...

If his approval within his own party is not solid, he's vulnerable. It's on Obama to shore up his base - or face a primary challenge.

If Obama wasn't such a weak kneed appeaser who shits all over his base, we wouldn't be having this discussion.

NGU.

To primary an outstanding president because he is not radical enough? Have fun with president Palin.

I will bet my paycheck on it.
Karl Rove, the bush family, Mitt Romney, Pawlenty, Newt, are all against her.
It will be Newt or Romney.
GOP always nominates the next in line by seniority.

...and yet, Palin will still lose. I think Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) will get the GOP nomination.

And thats how a lot of people I know feel. Dems never stick together and thats why we always loose. Divide and conquer.

African Americans are one of the top 5 groups in the Democratic base. You are not going to have a challenge to the first ever African American President by anyone who ever wants to win another Democratic primary ever in their lifetime. You would also guarantee that African Americans would stay home on election day should the challenge to Obama be successful.

In fact, I can't think of another group where 90% votes with one party (a great thing for us, BTW).

early to speculate.

Besides can we afford this president at least two years in office before we starting contemplating his demise? Jeez!!!!

side. It creates a riff in the party that can't be healed by election day. Carter couldn't get enough liberal support to beat reagan in 1980. The first bush couldn't beat Clinton because he'd lost the conservatives. If somebody challenges from the left it'll keep Obama from having what liberal support he has. The only thing worse than a primary challenge to a president's re-election chances is a 3rd party candidate.

"primary challenge to President Obama" is. They probably can't even name the three branches of government.

A real or fake primary, as such, means nothing.

...no matter what the Democrats do between now and
november 2012, their goose is quite thoroughly cooked.

It would take a miracle for the Democrats to hold the
Presidency and opposing Obama in a primary will make
no difference whatsoever; the Republican candidate will
win.

(Two caveats: If Obama chooses not to run, the Democrats
would be slightly closer to the required miracle. Similarly
if they replaced Obama in a contested primary, but he won't
be replaced even if there is a contested primary.)

Tesha

Let's just say Dennis Kucinich is no Ted Kennedy.

If it is a big name it could be harmful, but if it is just some vanity campaign it will not make a difference at all.

This is why we can get nowhere with our agenda. I cannot believe some seriously want to primary our sitting President.

This man has been in office less than 2 years. He ran and was elected on a bi-partisan agenda. Some are ready to throw him under the bus because he hasn't accomplished all they thought he would or should. He has not had a cakewalk with the party of NO. Give him time. Unless you want to see a Republican sitting in his chair in 2012.

Flame on....

because I don't think there will be a "serious" challenger. They'll be some other candidates on the ballot, but none will be serious enough to prevent Obama from winning the nomination and from it affecting Obama's general election chances.

If there's a primary challenge you have to open the warchest to defeat primary opponents. If you can save it all for the GOP you are in better shape.

challenge, and anyone more conservative would be a republican. If the media stays bought by the GOP, I believe they will win in '12 anyway-provided they are not too idiotic in Congress...

mark

A primary challenge will help Republicans win.And If Obama loses kiss the senate goodbye.

Q did a poll with Palin ahead among Republicans but losing against Obama.Mark my words here.
Republicans go for frontrunners.Palin may very well win the nomination Inless Huchabee and Gingrich
split the teabagger vote allowing Romney to win.Obama will face Palin or Romney In 2012.You think
they will be better than Obama.A primary challenge raises the danger of President Palin or
President romney.