House Democrats Face Long Odds in 2012

WASHINGTON -- A new poll of 50 competitive congressional districts by the Democrat-sponsored polling organization Democracy Corps finds "the new Republican majority very much in play," but much recent punditry argues the opposite -- that Democrats face long odds to reclaim the House of Representatives.

Although caution is in order when seeking to predict an outcome that is still 19 months away, there is some truth in both perspectives. To understand why, consider the recent postings of various pollsters, pundits and statistical modelers:

In December, Republican pollster Glen Bolger offered a "guarantee" that Republicans would maintain control of the House, even if President Barack Obama "stages a political comeback" and wins reelection. Bolger argued that recent presidents who have won reelection have had short coattails. The biggest swing to the president's party was in 1984, when Ronald Reagan's landslide swung 16 seats to the Republicans. The Democrats need 25 to regain control of the House.

"Obama is not likely to win a blowout reelection," Bolger wrote, and even 16 seats would be insufficient for Democrats to regain control of the House. He also noted that Republican victories in gubernatorial races in 2010 give the GOP a big net advantage in the ongoing redistricting process. Thus, Bolger guarantees a win.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/25/2012-house-democrats-polls-long-odds_n_840857.html

I'd like to thank the Obama voters who sat on their asses and handed the country over to the teabaggers last year. Apparently they are largely going to do the same in 2012 and although I am confident that he will scrape by, teabagger rule will 'keep him in line' for his entire second term.

Then Marco Rubio will become President in 2016 with control of the House, Senate, Supreme Court, and the majority of Governorships and State Legislatures.

It'll be like President Obama never happened.

I recommend a recall:
recalling Howard Dean and his 50-state strategy.

Yep, the Republicans were finished. We Democrats had the White House with a promise of hope and change and we held both houses of congress. I remember lots of laughing and mocking of Republicans.

So how is that all looking now?

Now it's back to the attic.

Democrats got complacent and smug with the power they thought they had and there were also Philistines in the camp. Then, like what happened in spades here in Wisconsin, Democrats had a snit and were all disappointed and demoralized and millions did not vote in 2010, conceding the state to the Republicans who gleefully started to immediately push their agenda.

...Teixeira and Judis are right about the '04, 06, '08 and '10 elections.

But turnout doesn't match demography.

The GOP wanted it more in '10, and bid fair to do so in '12. In a democracy, enraged minorities roll apathetic and detached majorities all the time.

those who advocate sitting on their hands or spout an incessant lament over their perceived notion that Barack Obama is not liberal enough to their liking, then I will put those websites on my 'pay no mind' list and never look back. We (and subsequent uses of the 1st-person possessive plural pronouns are considered the 'editorial we,' as there's no shortage of malcontents logged onto this site) have our work cut out for us between now & November 2012, and I have much better things to do with my time than read the fit-of-equivalency musings of those who would just as soon see a repug elected to office.

using Reagan in their speeches... Well... it's time to move away from the Reagan mentality and onto something more Democratic....

A primary challenge that splinters the Democratic party? Please be specific. I see far too much free-floating hibbity-jibbity-squibbity-bibbity around here, so I want to see something concrete in the way of excuses for not voting for the Democratic candidate in 2012.

There will be no permanent or near-permanent majority for either party.

...make sure there's no alternative to the Republicans.

I am disgusted with Obama & a good number of our dems, but I voted in '10. However, I don't know how much longer I will continue to vote for republicans with a D behind their name.



~sigh

on edit: What's really depressing is realizing how corrupt & compromised the entire system is. Money equals free speech, electronic voting, corporate owned media, oh my! Is it even possible to take back our country through the ballot box?

Is the sole purpose of this site now to run down Obama?

I try to defend Obama, the post gets delete. Somebody calls him everything buy a white man it stays

...minorities roll apathetic and detached majorities all the time.

The GOP want it more. Period. Democrats can always find a reason to not vote.

With all these rethug Governors trying to bust the unions in there states which I think is going to fire up the union vote much higher than normal

would not take the House? And we know how that turned out. I would rather be realistic than to try to sugar coat everything.

But it would be just as silly to predict a Dem comeback in 2012 which some people in this forum seem to be doing already.

We just have too many stupid people in this country. How can voting against your own benefit be a good thing? How fucking hard is that to show these morans?

Polling at this stage means precisely jack shit.

Please, let's just hope we don't lose the Senate too.

:eyes:

Green: Independent seats
Red: Republican seats
Blue: Democratic seats

Democrats are very exposed for a big change.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/08/2012_Senate_election_map.svg

We don't show up. We lose! It's just that simple.

As I see it that's were all the attention should be focused at the moment. By removing a sitting governor, we will be able to demonstrate that it is not only possible to hold the presidency (if we ever really had it in the first place) but hold the senate, and retake the house. I see that changing the whole dynamic of the campaign. National Democrats will be able, and more willing, to use traditional liberal issues to win (like '08). If teachers in Wisconsin can recall a governor then the sky is the limit.

But knowing Democrats, enthusiasm will peter out and the whole prospect of a Walker recall will be called 'politically unfeasible' by Washington conventional wisdom. The movement will fall and infighting will follow. In this very likely situation I think OP's doom and gloom will be well founded.

Am I wrong?....