NPR Morning Edition: Amid Deficit, A Look Back At Bush's Surplus, Tax Cuts

Maya MacGuineas, who heads the Center for a Responsible Federal Budget, says within a year of that 2001 tax cut, the federal government was back to borrowing money, and it's been running in the red ever since.

"This is one of those 'you can't count your chickens before they've hatched' moments," MacGuineas says.

To be sure, the tax cut wasn't the only blow to the government's bottom line. The recession took a toll, and after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, there were new expenses for homeland security and fighting Al-Qaida. Instead of paying more to cover these costs, Americans were paying less.

Roberton Williams of the Tax Policy Center says wealthy families saw the biggest jump in their take-home pay, but everyone who paid income taxes got a break.

"Everybody got something," he says, "because one of the things the 2001 act did was create a 10 percent tax bracket, which lowered taxes even for people at the bottom of distribution. It doubled the child tax credit from $500 to $1000, so for families with children, it was a big boon."

Good for families with children. Not so good for the government's coffers.

Conservatives often promote tax cuts as a way to stimulate economic growth, but the years after 2001 were marked by the slowest growth since World War II.