New Poll: Obama still leads in North Carolina

PPP

Obama 45%/Romney 44%

Obama 47%/Pawlenty 40%

Obama 48%/Cain 37%

Obama 50%/Gingrich 40%

Obama 52%/Palin 38%


Obama's approval rating in North Carolina is 49%


To put the numbers in perspective, in 2008 Obama won North Carolina by just 0.32% of the vote.



From the article

The story

"In 2008, North Carolina was the surprising bonus in Barack Obama's landslide wave -- with him having picked up the 15 electoral votes of a place that people would have been very surprised to hear about as a swing state just a few years earlier. Now, a new Public Policy Polling (D) survey suggests that it could again be crucial to Obama's re-election strategy, with Obama still leading the Republican contenders."



The good

"The poll has Obama just edging out Mitt Romney by 45%-44%, leading Tim Pawlenty by 47%-40%, leading Herman Cain by 48%-37%, leading Newt Gingrich by 50%-40%, and leading Sarah Palin Palin by 52%-38%. Obama's approval rating in North Carolina is 49%, with a disapproval of 47%.

The survey of registered voters was conducted from June 8-11, and has a ±4.1% margin of error."



The bad (although in this case not really that bad)

"North Carolina is likely to be much more important to the Presidential race next year than it was in 2008. Obama's approval numbers in North Carolina are superior to what we're finding for him in your quintessential swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. While North Carolina was one of the closest states in the country in 2008, it was really just the cherry on top for Obama in an electoral landslide. This time it could very well be part of the path to 270 electoral votes for the President."


Full story
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/06/poll-obama-ahead-in-north-carolina-going-into-2012.php

proposal.

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There is no hope for Obama to carry Indiana in 2012. When you see the demographics of the state, I have NO IDEA how Obama won there in 2008.


A year ago I would have not held out much hope for North Carolina. But for whatever reason, his polling numbers there are good. It is a legit tossup state right now. And Obama's approval rating in the state has always been right around 50%.


In 2008, the Democrats held their convention in Denver, and the won Colorado. This time the convention is in Charlotte.


If the GOP can't carry NC, the election is over.

And that's why the Rethuglicans are trying to dismantle voter rights, state by state!!

because the state has extremely strict rules in regard to phone and marketing surveys.


The idea that Indiana is gone is just a hunch. But I have no numbers to specifically back it up.

But I suspect it'll be close either way. Obama will do well in the northwest corner of the state by Chicago and around Indianapolis.

The demographics of NC are very good for Obama - large minority population (Black & Hispanic) plus a significant younger white, college educated demographic that leans Obama.

I wonder if that's name recognition (or, in more of a reach, if Romney looks better to the banking/finance demo in NC).

nice numbs!