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The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act was successful.

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blueclown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-17-11 12:38 AM
Original message
The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act was successful.
Now, do not get me wrong. We are still in a terrible situation with the economy right now, and there is a true jobs deficit in this country that needs to be addressed promptly. Furthermore, I do think that an argument can be made that the federal stimulus didn't spend nearly enough on state aid and infrastructure development, among other things, and spent entirely too much on weak tax-cuts.

However, what cannot be denied is the effectiveness of the stimulus as it was passed, and an argument that a second stimulus could be even more beneficial to the American public.

I have no idea why Democrats are not out on cable television and in the blogosphere trumping the latest CBO report about the effectiveness of the ARRA in the first quarter of 2011.

In short, what the CBO found out is that the ARRA:

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/121xx/doc12185/05-25-ARRA.pdf

raised real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic
product (GDP) by between 1.1 percent and
3.1 percent

Lowered the unemployment rate by between
0.6 percentage points and 1.8 percentage points

Increased the number of people employed by between
1.2 million and 3.3 million, and


Increased the number of full-time-equivalent jobs
by 1.6 million to 4.6 million compared with what would have occurred otherwise


Furthermore, the CBO stated that:

The effects of ARRA on output peaked in the first half of
2010 and have since diminished, CBO estimates. The
effects of ARRA on employment and unemployment are
estimated to lag slightly behind the effects on output;
CBO estimates that the employment effects began to
wane at the end of 2010 and continued to do so in the
first quarter of 2011.
CBO’s current estimates reflect small revisions to its previous
projections of the timing and magnitude of changes
to federal revenues and spending under ARRA.


Which points to the stimulus running its course in terms of funds, and argues the need for a second, more directed stimulus.

Some progressives have a few misgivings about the President, particularly with health care. But I do not understand why the Democratic Party isn't shouting from the rooftops about the effectiveness of the ARRA and the need for an additional stimulus. Their jobs may depend on it.
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pnorman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-17-11 01:41 AM
Response to Original message
1. k&r,
for careful study later.
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eridani Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-17-11 05:28 AM
Response to Original message
2. There's no question that it helped
But it's usefulness was greatly reduced by tax cuts. If tax cuts stimulate the economy, how is it that we all didn't get rich after Bush slashed taxes?
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Scuba Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-17-11 06:09 AM
Response to Original message
3. Good post, thanks. Here's a chart to help guide the next stimulus (not AIG!)
<img src="" title="Hosted by imgur.com" />
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blueclown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-17-11 09:00 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. If I were the President, this would be my re-election graph.
Bring this every where I go.
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GeorgeGist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-17-11 06:47 AM
Response to Original message
4. Myopia ...
is a handicap.

There is NO light at the end of the tunnel. Even though the Ritch are basking in it.
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ItNerd4life Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-17-11 12:25 PM
Response to Original message
6. The numbers you site are a friggin joke!
The range is so varied it shows that there is NO evidence that it worked. The range shows that someone picked the numbers out of their arse.

If a Republican had stated these number for one of their programs, everyone on DU would laugh at them.
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blueclown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-17-11 12:54 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. False.
It's impossible to show an exact number of jobs that the ARRA saved, the exact amount that the real GDP rose, etc because they are far too many factors that shape how job creation, GDP, etc grow.

These types of ranges are fairly common in such assessments.
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girl gone mad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-17-11 12:49 PM
Response to Original message
7. by the administration's own metric, it was unsuccessful.
Edited on Fri Jun-17-11 12:51 PM by girl gone mad
They were warned repeatedly that it was too small, too heavy on tax cuts and rife with graft. Their answer was to attack critics.

It's highly unlikely congress will approve any additional stimulus now.

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blueclown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-17-11 12:57 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. While the stimulus didn't meet administration expectations.
I think it was underestimated how deep the economic recession was. And yes, you are certainly right that the ARRA was riddled with far too many tax cuts and far too small on the actual job-building aspects of the stimulus. But it was clearly successful, and did help create jobs and grow the GDP.
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